Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

A very strong upper wave will be moving quickly southeastward from the eastern portions of the Canadian Prairies toward the Eastern U.S. through Friday.  This will get a significant chunk of cold air moving southward with freezing temperatures expected across central and eastern Oklahoma by Saturday morning.  The cold air will quickly begin to shift east as an upper ridge of high pressure passes across the Plains on Saturday.  By late Sunday, a positive tilt long wave trough will be moving across the Rockies with southwest flow spreading across the Plains.  This trough will provide lift across the state with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances, but precipitation is not likely prior to midnight on Monday.

Okarche Weather:

Thursday morning: 47

Thursday: 75

Friday morning: 41

Friday: 60

Saturday morning: 31

Saturday: 60

Sunday morning: 39

Sunday: 68

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY:

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 5%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 5%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 1%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

Minimal differences between models.  Late Sunday, the axis of a strong upper wave extended from Western Montana to Nevada.  An upper ridge was located over the Mississippi Valley and Midwest.  The pattern is a progressive one which will see the Western U.S. wave swing across the Plains late on Monday, and across the Ohio Valley and New England on Tuesday and Wednesday.  A strong jet segment embedded in northwest flow will be approaching Oklahoma late on Wednesday.

The unseasonably warm weather will remain in place ahead of a cold front on Monday.  The front will be moving into Northwest Oklahoma mid morning on Monday.  The front will reach Central Oklahoma around sunset on Monday, and reach the southeast corner of the state by daybreak on Tuesday.

Nearly all model guidance suggests that showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front during the late afternoon and evening hours on Monday.  Given MUCAPE from 1000 to 1500 j/kg, a couple of the storms will generate hail and may become marginally severe.

In the wake of the front, temperatures will be around / or slightly below / normal on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 66

Monday: 86

Tuesday morning: 52

Tuesday: 70

Wednesday morning: 48

Wednesday: 72

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING:

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 25%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 20%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 5%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

A weak upper wave is passing over the Plains this Wednesday evening, with associated lifting generating showers over Oklahoma.  This feature will shift east of the state and high pressure will begin to build over the Rockies and Southern Plains on Thursday.  A stout upper ridge will be in place through Saturday.  The ridge will start to flatten and shift toward the Mississippi Valley on Sunday as another long wave trough pushes east across the Rockies.

Light precipitation will be ending over Eastern Oklahoma, Thursday morning.  From that point, no precipitation is expected across the state through the weekend.

The main weather story over the next several days will be temperatures that are well above normal.

A surface trough will reside over the High Plains through Sunday.  We will see southerly winds across the state with relatively dry air.  Winds will become gusty by Sunday, and there is the potential for increased fire danger.

Temperatures across the state will be above normal on Thursday and Friday, and much above normal on Saturday and Sunday when temperatures will approach 90 degrees over the southwest portion of the state.

Okarche Weather:

Thursday morning: 57

Thursday: 79

Friday morning: 57

Friday: 85

Saturday morning: 61

Saturday: 87

Sunday morning: 62

Sunday: 88

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY:

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 0

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 0

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 0

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

A strong short wave trough is moving southeastward across the Midwest this evening.  This feature will result in a few showers and thunderstorms / mainly over Eastern Oklahoma / through Monday morning.  By afternoon, very dry mid level air will have spread across the state.

Moisture will begin to increase as a weak cut off low currently over Northern Sonora moves toward the Southern Plains.  Weak forcing will result in isolated showers over mainly Southwest Oklahoma late on Monday.  Scattered precipitation will eventually spread over Western and Northern Oklahoma as the weak upper system slowly advances across the Plains.

By late on Wednesday, a weak front will be approaching Northwest Oklahoma and a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible.

Despite low chances of precipitation through Wednesday, no significant rains are expected.

Near or slightly above normal temperatures will exist across the state through the middle of the week.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 58

Monday: 78

Tuesday morning: 62 / Showers possible

Tuesday: 78

Wednesday morning: 60

Wednesday: 75 / Showers possible

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 50%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 30%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 5%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

A deep trough of low pressure is located over the eastern part of the country this evening.  A strong wave of low pressure centered over Nevada is moving to the east northeast.  Between these two features, a ridge of high pressure is located over the Plains.  The western system will be moving across the Northern Plains and Midwest on Thursday, resulting in the flow over Oklahoma becoming more zonal.  Another large trough will get carved out over the Eastern U.S. by Saturday and a ridge will attempt to build over the Plains once again.  The end result is very little in the way of large scale lift spreading over Oklahoma, and beautiful weather is in store through the weekend.

A weak cold front will be passing across Oklahoma on Thursday.  Temperatures will be seasonably warm ahead of the front, and near or slightly below normal behind it, with similar weather persisting through the weekend.  Winds will be light by Oklahoma standards and no precipitation is expected through Sunday.

Okarche Weather:

Thursday morning: 53

Thursday: 81

Friday morning: 51

Friday: 75

Saturday morning: 50

Saturday: 71

Sunday morning: 47

Sunday: 74

Record rainfall / storm photos

The total precipitation in Okarche on October 13th was 1.32 inches. This set a record for the date.  The previous record was 0.53 of an inch set in 2008.  When combined with the 0.42 of an inch which fell on October 12th, the storm total rainfall for this event was 1.74 inches.

I made yet another October storm observing trip on Sunday the 12th.  While not over the top, there were some interesting features with the storms in the Weatherford/Bessie areas.

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

A strong short wave trough is moving across the Southern Plains early Monday morning.  As an 80-90 knot speed max rotates around the trough, the wave will close off late Monday over Missouri.  The system will continue to progress eastward and ridging will begin building over the High Plains by Wednesday.

The surface reflection of the system is a deep surface low which is tracking eastward along the I-40 corridor.  Numerous showers and thunderstorms / some severe / will continue to track across mainly Eastern Oklahoma through Monday morning.  Meanwhile, wrap around precipitation will occur over a large part of West Central, Central and Northern Oklahoma, with precipitation lingering over Northeast Oklahoma into Tuesday morning.

Monday will be a blustery day across the state with strong north winds and well below normal temperatures.  Temperatures will be a little below normal on Tuesday while winds subside.  Wednesday should be a great day across the state with near normal temperatures and light winds.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 54 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Monday: 54 / Showers likely

Tuesday morning: 45

Tuesday: 69

Wednesday morning: 43

Wednesday: 75

Big weather changes in store for state

Early Sunday morning, a very strong mid level jet segment was passing across the Pacific Northwest.  This feature will push southeastward, carving out a sharp trough that will be passing over the High Plains by Sunday evening.  With the approach and passage of this trough, rapid weather changes are in store for Oklahoma on Sunday and Monday.

As a strong 80 to 90 knot jet max approaches the Southern Plains on Sunday, very rapid pressure falls will occur.   A sub 996 mb surface low is expected to take shape over eastern sections of the Texas Panhandle by sunset.  In response, strong southerly low level winds will develop across the state.  In the hours near and just after sunset, strong lifting associated with the approaching upper system, and a steady increase in low level moisture will result in the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms.  Multiple areas of storm development are possible.  Across eastern portions of the state, storms are likely to increase in response to strong warm air advection.  Other storms will form along a cold front as it begins to move eastward across Western Oklahoma.  Still other storms are likely as strong lifting overspreads the Panhandle.

Instability will reach sufficient levels to support severe storms.  With strong forcing developing within a region of strong low and deep layer shear, a squall line capable of producing severe size hail and damaging winds appears likely between 9 pm on Sunday and daybreak on Monday.  In addition, some supercell potential will likely exist across the warm sector in advance of the cold front storms.  Any discrete supercell that is able to become established will be capable of all facets of severe weather including a low end tornado threat.  Climatology does not favor nocturnal tornado events in Oklahoma, especially in strongly forced environments.  However, the tornado threat is not zero, and may increase toward Monday morning across Southeast Oklahoma.