August: Dry

Short term drought has a strong hold on Okarche.  The total precipitation for the month of August was 0.03 of an inch.  This is the second driest August of record – and the 10th driest month of record over the last 34 years.  0.03 of an inch was just one percent of the average, 3.81 inches.

Despite a very dry August, the total precipitation for the summer of 2014 came in at 10.97 inches (thanks to well above normal rainfall in June and July).  This was 97 percent of the 11.27 inches of precipitation that usually falls in a summer.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

A somewhat complex weather pattern will be unfolding over the next several days.  Models are in reasonably good agreement, with the 00z GFS in line with the 12z ECMWF.  For Thursday and Friday, attention will be on a seasonably strong upper system which is currently over the Central Rockies.  The open wave will be moving across the High Plains by late afternoon on Thursday.  A weak cold front will be advancing eastward across the Panhandle.  Lift associated with the upper wave and convergence along the front will be sufficient for widespread showers and thunderstorms through the late afternoon and evening hours.  The atmosphere east of the front will be moderately unstable with MUCAPE between 1500 and 2000 j/kg.  In addition, there will be sufficient shear for organized storms.  Given these parameters, some of the storms may be severe with the potential for marginally severe hail and damaging winds.  Storms will be limited to the western third of the state until sunset when the activity will be spreading into Central Oklahoma.

The upper wave will be lifting toward the Midwest, and the trailing cold front will become nearly stationary along or east of the I-35 corridor on Friday.  Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the eastern two thirds of the state Thursday night and on Friday.

By Saturday, a strong upper trough will be moving from the Pacific Northwest to the Central and Northern Rockies.  Surface pressure falls over the High Plains will allow boundaries (outflow or front) over the state to begin moving northward.  Plentiful moisture, surface boundaries, and warm air advection will lead to more showers and storms across the state on Saturday.  The best precipitation chances will be across the northern half of Oklahoma.

On Sunday, the strong upper trough will be advancing across the Plains.  A well organized surface low will take shape across Western Kansas.  The pressure gradient across Oklahoma will lead to gusty south winds which may reach 40 mph at times, especially across the northwest part of the state.  By late afternoon and early evening, the atmosphere across the state will be quite unstable with sufficient low and deep layer shear for severe thunderstorms.  However, strong capping is likely to prevent storm development during the daylight hours across the state.  Storms which form in Kansas during the evening hours are likely to affect Northern / and possibly Central / Oklahoma into the early morning hours of Monday.

Widespread cloud cover and areas of precipitation will cause temperatures to vary across the state.  Not taking precipitation into account, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees either side of normal.

Okarche Weather:

Thursday morning: 73 / Showers possible

Thursday: 93 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Friday morning: 71 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Friday: 91 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Saturday morning: 70 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Saturday: 90 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Sunday morning: 71 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Sunday: 95

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

This evening, a strong upper system is lifting northeast from the Northern Plains, while a seasonably strong jet segment drops south along the coast of the Pacific Northwest.  This jet segment will help in carving out a long wave trough over the Western U.S. over the next 24 hours.  High pressure that extends from the Ohio Valley to the Southern Plains will get pushed southeastward as the western U.S. trough advances eastward over the Rockies.

At the surface, a trough of low pressure over the Panhandle will remain in that general area with only daily oscillation through Wednesday.  Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day near this boundary.  Some of the precipitation is likely to move into far western Oklahoma.

While central sections of the state are going to remain dry through Wednesday, the pattern does favor increased precipitation chances starting on Thursday.

Temperatures through Wednesday will be above normal.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 74

Monday: 100

Tuesday morning: 75

Tuesday: 99

Wednesday morning: 74

Wednesday: 98

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

Models are in reasonably good agreement concerning the evolution of the weather through this weekend.  A strong jet segment diving southeastward just off the British Columbia coast will assist in carving out a broad trough over the Western U.S.  Meanwhile, high pressure will remain centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Through Sunday, precipitation chances will be confined to the Panhandle and Northwest Oklahoma.  The pressure gradient will remain tight enough to produce some gusty winds through Saturday.  The gradient will begin to relax on Sunday.

Temperatures will be warm, but not excessive over the next four days.

Okarche Weather:

Thursday morning: 74

Thursday: 97

Friday morning: 74

Friday: 100

Saturday morning: 74

Saturday: 97

Sunday morning: 74

Sunday: 98

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

Despite a strong upper trough moving across the Ohio Valley, heights will begin to rise over the Eastern U.S. as an upper high develops over the Southeast U.S.  Meanwhile, heights will begin to fall across the Western U.S. as an upper trough beings to dominate.

A thunderstorm complex over Kansas late on Sunday will likely move across northern Oklahoma, and possibly into the central sections of the state.  Otherwise, little or no precipitation is expected through Wednesday.

Temperatures will be close to – or slightly higher than normal.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 74 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Monday: 99

Tuesday morning: 74

Tuesday: 98

Wednesday morning: 75

Wednesday: 98

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

Models are in reasonably good agreement with the general evolution of the weather through the weekend. High pressure over the Southern Plains will begin to migrate westward toward Arizona, while a large trough continues its hold over the Eastern U.S.  This will result in northwest flow over the Plains with embedded short wave troughs.

The first wave will move across the Plains from late Friday into the first part of Saturday.  An associated cold front will enter far northwest Oklahoma around Midnight on Saturday.  The front will become nearly stationary on Saturday near or just southeast of the I-44 corridor.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Panhandle on Friday, and over the main body of the state Saturday.

Sunday will be mostly dry across Oklahoma before another wave approaches the area early next week.

Temperatures will be around seasonal average on Thursday and Friday, but are likely to become quite hot south of the front on Saturday and Sunday.

Okarche Weather:

Thursday morning: 67

Thursday: 94

Friday morning: 70

Friday: 96

Saturday morning: 72 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Saturday: 99

Sunday morning: 73 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Sunday: 95

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

Upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten slightly by mid week as a large trough moves east across the Great Lakes, and another storm system moves onshore Pacific Northwest.  The northwesterly flow across the middle part of the country will assist in sliding surface high pressure from the Northern Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley.  The end result will be temperatures below normal and little or no precipitation.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 69

Monday: 90

Tuesday morning: 64

Tuesday: 88

Wednesday morning: 65

Wednesday: 90

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

A low amplitude high pressure ridge is located over the Southern High Plains.  This ridge will slowly build toward the Central Rockies by the end of the weekend.  Topping the ridge is a weak short wave trough which is currently moving across the state and will be over the Mississippi Valley on Thursday.  Another weak wave will pass across the Central Plains on Friday.  Yet another wave will be moving across the Central Plains and Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

A weak surface front will move into far northern Oklahoma on Thursday with a few scattered storms possible over eastern sections of the state.  Scattered storms are also possible on Friday, especially across northern sections of the state.  More widely scattered storms will be possible on Saturday and Sunday.

Despite the weak front being in the area, temperatures will be quite warm and slightly above normal.

Okarche Weather:

Thursday morning: 72

Thursday: 98

Friday morning: 73

Friday: 100

Saturday morning: 74 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Saturday: 97

Sunday morning: 76

Sunday: 101

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

In general, a low amplitude high pressure ridge will be located over the Southern High Plains through mid week.  Weak short wave troughs will be rounding the top of the ridge and across the Central Plains.  Temperatures will be near or slightly below seasonal normal on Monday and Tuesday, with slightly warmer weather expected on Wednesday.

There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms over the Panhandle late Tuesday and early Wednesday, and then a chance of storms over the main body of Oklahoma late on Wednesday.  Widespread, significant rainfall is not expected.

It appears that the weather will become quite hot from late week into the upcoming weekend.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 68

Monday: 91

Tuesday morning: 70

Tuesday: 93

Wednesday morning: 72

Wednesday: 96