A somewhat complex weather pattern will be unfolding over the next several days. Models are in reasonably good agreement, with the 00z GFS in line with the 12z ECMWF. For Thursday and Friday, attention will be on a seasonably strong upper system which is currently over the Central Rockies. The open wave will be moving across the High Plains by late afternoon on Thursday. A weak cold front will be advancing eastward across the Panhandle. Lift associated with the upper wave and convergence along the front will be sufficient for widespread showers and thunderstorms through the late afternoon and evening hours. The atmosphere east of the front will be moderately unstable with MUCAPE between 1500 and 2000 j/kg. In addition, there will be sufficient shear for organized storms. Given these parameters, some of the storms may be severe with the potential for marginally severe hail and damaging winds. Storms will be limited to the western third of the state until sunset when the activity will be spreading into Central Oklahoma.
The upper wave will be lifting toward the Midwest, and the trailing cold front will become nearly stationary along or east of the I-35 corridor on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the eastern two thirds of the state Thursday night and on Friday.
By Saturday, a strong upper trough will be moving from the Pacific Northwest to the Central and Northern Rockies. Surface pressure falls over the High Plains will allow boundaries (outflow or front) over the state to begin moving northward. Plentiful moisture, surface boundaries, and warm air advection will lead to more showers and storms across the state on Saturday. The best precipitation chances will be across the northern half of Oklahoma.
On Sunday, the strong upper trough will be advancing across the Plains. A well organized surface low will take shape across Western Kansas. The pressure gradient across Oklahoma will lead to gusty south winds which may reach 40 mph at times, especially across the northwest part of the state. By late afternoon and early evening, the atmosphere across the state will be quite unstable with sufficient low and deep layer shear for severe thunderstorms. However, strong capping is likely to prevent storm development during the daylight hours across the state. Storms which form in Kansas during the evening hours are likely to affect Northern / and possibly Central / Oklahoma into the early morning hours of Monday.
Widespread cloud cover and areas of precipitation will cause temperatures to vary across the state. Not taking precipitation into account, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees either side of normal.
Thursday morning: 73 / Showers possible
Thursday: 93 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Friday morning: 71 / Showers and thunderstorms likely
Friday: 91 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Saturday morning: 70 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Saturday: 90 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Sunday morning: 71 / Showers and thunderstorms possible