A long wave trough will remain over the Eastern U.S., while high pressure over the Southwest U.S. tries to maintain a hold through Sunday.
A wave embedded in northwest flow will continue to generate showers and thunderstorms through Thursday morning. Otherwise, it appears that precipitation chances will be very low through the weekend.
Temperatures will be below normal through the period.
Thursday morning: 65
Friday morning: 65
Saturday morning: 68
Sunday morning: 71
The weather pattern over the next several days to a week will not be too different from that which produced our record cool weather earlier this month. High pressure over the Southern High Plains will migrate westward through Wednesday as a deep trough of low pressure organizes over the Eastern U.S. Embedded waves in northwest flow will result in a steady feed of below normal temperature air southward across the Plains into Oklahoma. These waves will also result in widespread convective complexes which will form over Colorado and New Mexico and spread southeastward across Oklahoma. The bottom line will be seasonably cool temperatures and beneficial rainfall for most of the state.
Elevated storms may form late tonight over Southern Oklahoma and linger into the morning hours of Monday. More showers and thunderstorms will likely form over the Panhandle by Monday afternoon. A more organized area of storms will form just northwest of Oklahoma early on Tuesday. This complex will work southeastward during the day, and persist into Wednesday. Continued redevelopment of precipitation is possible across the state through the daylight hours on Wednesday.
While severe thunderstorms are not expected, widespread heavy rainfall is. In some cases, excessive rainfall may lead to flooding and flash flooding. Currently, it appears that the heaviest rainfall will extend from the Panhandle to central sections of the state, to Southeast Oklahoma. In general, up to two inches of rain / locally 3 to 4 / can be expected.
Monday morning: 68
Tuesday morning: 69 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Tuesday: 81 / Showers and thunderstorms likely
Wednesday morning: 64 / Showers and thunderstorms likely
Wednesday: 71 / Showers and thunderstorms likely
Upper level high pressure is located over Colorado tonight. This area of high pressure will build eastward and generally be centered over the Texas Panhandle through Saturday. On Sunday, a strong upper storm will be moving southeast across the Great Lakes. The Southern Plains upper high will begin to shift westward.
Hot weather will prevail across the state through Saturday. A cold front will push across Northern Oklahoma on Sunday, but this will only trim temperatures across the far northern section of the state. Oklahoma will not see significant cooling until Monday.
A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Panhandle each day. Otherwise, precipitation over the main body of Oklahoma will be limited to Sunday evening as lift along the cold front increases.
Thursday morning: 73
Friday morning: 75
Saturday morning: 76
Sunday morning: 76
Sunday: 100 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
A strong upper level high pressure area is located over Colorado today. A short wave trough rotating around the east side of the high will move from Missouri southwestward into Oklahoma later this afternoon. The atmosphere over Oklahoma is quite moist with precipitable water values around 2 inches expected this afternoon. With daytime heating, the atmosphere will become very unstable, and thunderstorms are expected to organize with the approach of the upper wave.
Between Noon and 3 pm, storms are expected to form from South Central Kansas to Northern Arkansas. These storms will begin to track southwestward through Eastern Oklahoma.. possibly reaching central sections of the state by mid to late afternoon. The most likely area for precipitation will be Southeast Oklahoma, but the OKC metro area and northern sections of the state will also likely see at least isolated storms.
Given the high amounts of moisture and instability, a few of the storms could become briefly severe, with damaging winds a threat. In addition to the wind threat, there will be a considerable amount of lightning and areas of heavy rain with the stronger storms.
..Hot weather returns to the state..
An upper level high pressure area is located just west of Oklahoma. This feature will migrate slowly westward through Wednesday, allowing a bit of northerly flow on the east side of the high to filter southward through the far eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley.
A very weak front will enter far northern Oklahoma early on Wednesday. This boundary may make it close to the I-40 corridor by the end of the day, but is expected to have a minimal affect on temperatures. It will be quite warm with near seasonal temperatures through mid week.
The front may also help produce a few showers and thunderstorms, but coverage will be limited on Wednesday.
Monday morning: 71
Tuesday morning: 73
Wednesday morning: 74
More records fall as unseasonably cool weather remains across Oklahoma. On Friday, July 18, the high temperature in Okarche only reached 69 degrees. This set a record for the lowest high temperature on the date. The previous record was 80 degrees set in 1979.
This morning (19th) the low temperature dropped to a record setting 59 degrees. The previous record was 62 degrees set in 2009.
The high of 69 degrees on Friday was the second consecutive day with highs in the 60′s. The only previous occurrence of a high in the 60′s in July was in 1996.
In some cases, the records were smashed. On July 16th, the low temperature in Okarche was 60 degrees. This broke the old record of 61 degrees set in 1967. The high temperature was 71 degrees which broke the record for the lowest high temperature. The previous record was 79 degrees set in 1967.
July 17th was very cool. The daily average was 63 degrees which was 21 degrees below normal. You have to go back to early March to find a day either 21 degrees below or above normal. The high temperature was 66 degrees which not only broke the record for the lowest high temperature on the date, but it also became the lowest high temperature ever recorded in the month of July. The previous record for the date was 83 degrees set in 1979, and for the month the previous record was 67 degrees set on July 10, 1996. The low temperature of 59 degrees broke the old record of 60 degrees set in 1967.
A strong upper wave over Wyoming this evening is diving southeastward and will cross over Oklahoma by late Thursday. This feature is, and will be responsible for shower and thunderstorm activity across most of the state. With precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches, and a generally slow movement of storms, heavy rainfall is likely. In some cases, especially across Southern Oklahoma, flooding will be possible. The precipitation will end from northwest to southeast across the state by Friday morning.
Heights will begin to rise across the Southern Rockies and Southern Plains into the weekend. However, the models have been consistent in bringing another small / but strong / wave from the Central Rockies toward the state late on Saturday and Sunday. This feature should drive a complex of storms from Western Kansas to Western / and possibly Central / Oklahoma during the morning hours on Sunday.
Extensive cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures cool on Thursday with record low high temperatures possible. Friday will see a bit warmer weather, but still several degrees below normal. Saturday and Sunday both should be seasonably mild.
Thursday morning: 60 / Showers and thunderstorms likely
Thursday: 69 / Showers and thunderstorms likely
Friday morning: 62 / Showers possible
Saturday morning: 68
Sunday morning: 72 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Sunday: 91 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
An unusually complicated mid July forecast this period. A strong upper wave will move from near the Canada/North Dakota border this evening to the Midwest/Ohio Valley by Monday evening. From Monday into Tuesday, a long wave trough will be carved out over the Eastern U.S. and northwest flow will extend from the Northern Rockies to the Plains. On Wednesday, a strong short wave trough embedded in the northwest flow will be moving from the Central Rockies toward the Southern Plains.
The features above will lead to unseasonably cool air moving south across the Plains and numerous chances for precipitation.
A weak cold front moved into Oklahoma on Sunday and helped aid shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. These storms will gradually weaken overnight, but a few may remain early on Monday, especially across Southern Oklahoma. By late afternoon, a much stronger cold front will be crossing out of Kansas into Oklahoma, and more showers and thunderstorms are likely along this boundary. The precipitation will spread toward Southern Oklahoma by Tuesday morning. Tuesday should be generally dry across the state. After Midnight, early Wednesday morning, a large complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop over the Central High Plains and move toward the state. Widespread heavy precipitation will spread across the state through the day on Wednesday. This rainfall may result in flooding conditions in some areas.
The combination of cooler air with each cold front, and widespread cloud cover and precipitation will lead to much cooler than normal temperatures. The perfect combination could result in record low high temperatures by Wednesday.
Monday morning: 72
Monday: 95 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Tuesday morning: 63
Wednesday morning: 62 / Showers and thunderstorms likely
Wednesday: 70 / Showers and thunderstorms likely
Once again, it was tough dragging decent images out of todays storms. The only storm that even marginally cooperated was this one just northwest of Calumet.
As close as it was to Okarche, the total rainfall for the day was only 0.03 of an inch. This did help the sting of our second 100 degree day of the year.