A seasonably deep upper vortex is located over Southern Manitoba this evening. A strong short wave trough will be moving around this feature, spreading strong jet stream wind across the Central and Northern Plains and Midwest. The trailing portion of this wave will move across Oklahoma late on Tuesday and early Wednesday.
The upper features have a cold front moving southward. This front will extend from the Panhandle to Northern Missouri by late on Monday. The front will make it into Southeast Oklahoma by late afternoon on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the somewhat diffuse boundary will be located near the Red River.
One very hot day is in store for the state on Monday when temperatures will reach 100 degrees over parts of the Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. The remainder of the state will see temperatures into the 90s. Combined with very high humidity, heat index temperatures will likely climb well into the 100s. Temperatures will drop below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday behind the front.
Precipitation chances look good over the next few days. On Monday, storms will form near the front along the Kansas/Oklahoma border and will move across Northern Oklahoma through Tuesday morning. Tuesday will see redeveloping storms across much of Central and Southern Oklahoma. By Wednesday, storms chances will likely be confined to the Panhandle and southwest 1/3 of the state. A few of the storms each day will be severe with some hail and damaging wind possible. Fairly widespread rainfall of 1/4 to 3/4 of an inch is likely, with a few isolated spots receiving upward of 2 inches.
Monday morning: 74
Tuesday morning: 68 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Tuesday: 82 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Wednesday morning: 66 / Showers possible
An unseasonably strong upper system is currently onshore California and moving east. This system will move across the High Plains on Friday, and then lift out over the Western Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. At that time, a strong jet segment will extend from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Midwest and the flow will generally be zonal across most of the country.
Strong surface low pressure will organize to the north and northwest of Oklahoma on Thursday, as a result, south winds of 20 to 30 mph will be common through the weekend.
Significant precipitation is not expected in the state as the main lifting associated with the approaching wave stays to our north. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over parts of Oklahoma over the next 96 hours, a result of several small scale lifting mechanisms.
The most common area/time to see precipitation will be over Southeast Oklahoma and the Panhandle on Thursday. There will also be scattered storms across Northern Oklahoma from late Friday to early Sunday.
Thursday morning: 70
Friday morning: 71
Saturday morning: 73
Sunday morning: 74
Cloud to ground strikes were flashing at a rate of 1 to 2 per second with this storm near Canadian, Texas (22 June)
A supercell thunderstorm dropped south from Beaver County, Oklahoma – through Lipscomb and Hemphill counties in the Texas Panhandle on June 22nd. The storm was an amazing lightning producer! There were periods that cloud to ground strikes were occurring at a rate of almost three per second. The above images were all taken just east or southeast of Canadian, Texas, and were a great way to kick off the summer lightning season!
A weak upper wave moving across the High Plains has generated a large convective complex which is rolling across Oklahoma early Monday morning. There will still be convergence along a surface boundary across Northwest Oklahoma on Monday, and showers and thunderstorms are likely to redevelop. Storms are also expected to form in an upslope regime across Eastern Colorado by Monday afternoon. These will track southeastward and affect western parts of the state through Tuesday morning. As another wave moves across the High Plains late on Tuesday, another convective complex is likely to organize and spread southeastward toward the state. At least scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across the state through Wednesday evening.
Temperatures will likely be near seasonal normal, but there will be wide ranges as a result of cloud cover and precipitation.
Monday morning: 64 / Showers and thunderstorms likely
Monday: 84 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Tuesday morning: 67
Wednesday morning: 69 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Wednesday: 91 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Violent (EF4) tornado approaches the town of Pilger, Nebraska on June 16, 2014.
The 2014 storm chase blog and the chase log is currently being brought up to date – which includes a chase day in Nebraska on June 16th.
An upper level low pressure area over the Northern Rockies will lift slowly northward over the next 24 hours. Flow over the Southern Plains through Friday will become light out of the northwest as high pressure organizes over Southwest Louisiana. While the high pressure area will start weakening by Saturday, flow over the state will remain rather light out of the northwest through the end of the weekend.
Thunderstorms tonight will continue to organize and spread into Central Oklahoma by Thursday morning. A low pressure trough west of the state will provide a focus for more thunderstorms Thursday evening, which are also expected to spread southeastward over the state into Friday morning. Saturday and Sunday are expected to be mostly dry, but high humidity and afternoon heating could lead to isolated showers and storms, especially over Eastern Oklahoma.
Thursday morning: 73 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Thursday: 88 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Friday morning: 73 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Saturday morning: 71
Sunday morning: 71
Overnight rain in Okarche totaled 1.49 inches. This was the first one inch rainfall in almost nine months (September 28, 2013).
This rain also finally pushed us over 50 percent of normal for the year. The 2014 total stands now at 8.57 inches which is 7.75 inches below the normal of 16.32.
A weak short wave trough will pass across the state Thursday morning. Thunderstorms at daybreak will gradually move out of Southeast Oklahoma by sunset.
Friday will be a day between systems and a very nice day across Oklahoma. A surface high pressure ridge extending from the Midwest to Northwest Texas will keep winds light. In the wake of Thursdays storms, the atmosphere will be seasonably dry and mild.
By late Friday, a much stronger storm system will be organizing over the Rockies. This system will eject toward the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest by early on Sunday. On Saturday, winds will return out of the south and moisture will increase across the state. The atmosphere is expected to become quite unstable and a few severe thunderstorms will likely develop over Northwest Oklahoma late in the day. The front responsible will move slightly southeast and extend from near Ponca City to Erick by Sunday. This will once again provide a focus for the development of severe thunderstorms.
Thursday morning: 63 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Friday morning: 58
Saturday morning: 63
Saturday: 92 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Sunday morning: 73 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Sunday: 91 / Showers and thunderstorms likely
The total precipitation in Okarche during the month of May was 2.06 inches. This was only 39% of the average 5.25 inches, and ranks as the 4th driest May on record.
For Spring, the total precipitation was 4.66 inches. This was the 2nd driest Spring on record, and was only 41% of the average 11.41 inches.
The Spring was slightly cooler than normal. The average temperature of 59.3 degrees was about a half of a degree shy of the normal 59.9 degrees.
The average temperature in May was 71.0 degrees which was 2.0 degrees above normal.