Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

An upper level low to the southeast of Oklahoma will gradually weaken through the weekend.  Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will be organizing over the Western U.S.  By the end of the upcoming weekend, a seasonably strong jet segment will begin to stretch from the Southwest U.S. to the Central Plains.

In association with the developing western trough, surface pressures will begin falling over the next 48 hours over the High Plains.  The pressure gradient will be fairly weak across the state until Sunday resulting in fairly light winds.  By Sunday, strong south winds are expected to return to Oklahoma.

The atmosphere across the state will remain moist through the weekend, with even deeper moisture expected to surge back into the state starting on Friday.  A relatively weak cap will result in afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over the eastern 2/3s of Oklahoma.  Stronger capping moves across the state by Sunday which will limit the daily production of showers; however, thunderstorms are expected to form from Western Kansas to the Texas Panhandle and these will move into Northwest Oklahoma during the late evening.

Muggy conditions with temperatures near seasonal normal are expected through the weekend, with highs expected to become much above normal over Western Oklahoma by Sunday.

Okarche Weather:

Thursday morning: 65

Thursday: 85 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Friday morning: 66

Friday: 84 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Saturday morning: 67

Saturday: 85 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Sunday morning: 68

Sunday: 89

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

An upper level low pressure area over Northern New Mexico on Sunday will move to the Texas Panhandle on Monday.  By Tuesday, the low will be tracking along the Red River, and by Wednesday, it is expected to be in Louisiana.

While the surface pattern remains somewhat disorganized across the state, it does appear that there will be widespread showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday.  The heaviest precipitation will occur across Southern Oklahoma where more than a couple of inches will be possible in a few areas.  While precipitation is expected to diminish on Wednesday, a few showers and storms will likely be scattered across Eastern Oklahoma.

Temperatures will be near or below normal across the state, due largely to widespread areas of cloudiness and precipitation.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 62 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Monday: 80 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Tuesday morning: 62 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Tuesday: 79 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Wednesday morning: 61

Wednesday: 85

 

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

Models are in fairly good agreement this afternoon regarding the evolution of the Western U.S. system and what impacts it will have on Oklahoma.

A large upper low is currently located over Nevada.  This low will dig toward Southwest Arizona by late on Thursday.  The system will move slowly eastward through Friday and into Saturday afternoon, reaching a position just south of the Four Corners.  Through Sunday afternoon, the low will transition to more of an open wave located across Colorado and New Mexico, with southwest flow spreading over the Central and Southern Plains.

There has been little change in the meager amount of low level moisture across Oklahoma over the past 72 hours.  This will change early on Friday as sustained south winds over the Southern Plains bring a fetch of rich gulf air into the state which will remain in place through the weekend.

A weak front is located over the Eastern Panhandle this afternoon, and is expected to lift northward late today.  Thursday through Sunday will see a north/south trough located over the High Plains with moderate south winds across the state.  The surface pattern is likely to become disorganized at times, the result of convective complexes which will begin to work deeper into the state.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms which occur today over Northwest Oklahoma and the Panhandle will likely continue in a weaker form through Thursday morning.  More thunderstorms will form during the afternoon across the Panhandle and northwest part of the state.  As the upper level system approaches, showers and thunderstorms will edge slowly eastward.  Friday will see precipitation across roughly the northwest 1/3 of the state.  Clusters of thunderstorms will continue to affect much of the same areas on Saturday.  By Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the western 2/3s of the state.

There will be some risk of severe thunderstorms through the weekend.  The main threat will be isolated areas of large hail and damaging winds.  No widespread significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected.

While beneficial rainfall is expected across much of the area currently listed as either having extreme or exceptional drought, some places may see too much of a good thing.  By Sunday, widespread 1 to 2 inch amounts of precipitation will have fallen across the western half of the state.  The weather pattern favors areas of training precipitation which could lead to some places seeing 2 to 4 inches, and isolated spots well over 4 inches.  While it is hard to believe given the current drought, flash flooding could become a problem before the event is over.

In general, temperatures are expected to be near or slightly above normal.  However, day to day temperatures will be difficult to pin down in areas that see a large variation in cloud cover and precipitation.

Okarche Weather:

Thursday morning: 67

Thursday: 90

Friday morning: 67

Friday: 85 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Saturday morning: 65 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Saturday: 85 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Sunday morning: 65 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Sunday: 85 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

A trough of low pressure will take shape over the Western U.S. through mid-week.  This system will eventually bring showers and thunderstorms to the main body of Oklahoma, but during this period, scattered storms are expected to be confined to the Panhandle during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday.

In general, warmer and breezy conditions are expected across the state.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 64

Monday: 88

Tuesday morning: 66

Tuesday: 93

Wednesday morning: 68

Wednesday: 92

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

A large trough of low pressure centered over the Eastern Plains and Midwest will shift slowly eastward through the weekend, with a developing western ridge shifting over the Plains.  For the next 72 to 96 hours, waves embedded in the strong north northwest flow will move across the state.  Despite limited moisture, a few showers are going to be possible each day, Thursday through Sunday.  The most likely area to see rain will be over Northern and Eastern Oklahoma, but significant accumulations are not expected.

A weak cold front will move southward across Oklahoma during the first part of Thursday, and temperatures will continue to stay below normal.  A decent warm up is expected on Friday over western parts of the state, but another southward moving front will move through Friday night with temperatures below normal expected on Saturday.  On Sunday, pressures will begin falling over the High Plains and a warm south wind will return to the state.

Okarche Weather:

Thursday morning: 46

Thursday: 68 / Showers possible

Friday morning: 44

Friday: 81 / Showers possible

Saturday morning: 48

Saturday: 77 / Showers possible

Sunday morning: 56

Sunday: 87

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

There is not a great deal of confidence in this forecast as models have had recent changes in the handling of the upper trough moving across the Plains.  In general, the trough axis will make slow, but steady progression, getting east of Oklahoma by mid week.

There are now indications of embedded waves in the upper flow which may lend to precipitation chances on both Monday and Tuesday.

At the surface, a strong cold front is pushing across Western Oklahoma early this morning and will be approaching the I-35 corridor by late morning.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through the morning hours across much of the state, with the activity getting east of I-35 by mid afternoon.  There will be a risk of severe thunderstorms over Eastern Oklahoma Monday afternoon and evening.

Showers will linger into Tuesday across Southeast Oklahoma.  By Tuesday afternoon, there may be a redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms over Central and Eastern Oklahoma.  At this time, significant amounts of rainfall are not expected.

High pressure will continue to build into the state on Wednesday with mostly dry conditions.

The front pushing across the state is a strong one and temperatures are expected to be below to well below normal through Wednesday.  Low temperatures in the 30s are likely in the Panhandle on Monday morning with lows in the 30s over the Panhandle and northwest part of the state on Tuesday morning.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 62 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Monday: 70 / Showers possible

Tuesday morning: 42

Tuesday: 68 / Showers possible

Wednesday morning: 44

Wednesday: 73

A few severe thunderstorms possible today

A strong upper system will begin to affect the Plains this afternoon.  Deep surface low pressure and associated cold fronts/warm fronts/ and a dryline will provide the focus for afternoon thunderstorms development.  The most likely area for severe weather will be north of the Kansas/Oklahoma border.

Low level moisture has increased over the last 24 hours, and the atmosphere is expected to become quite unstable across the state this afternoon.  For most of the afternoon, Oklahoma will not be found in the most favorable area of lifting associated with the approaching wave.  This and a strong capping inversion will help to prevent thunderstorm development through at least mid afternoon.

As afternoon changes to early evening, strong surface heating, convergence along the dryline and subtle lifting will begin to result in isolated areas of thunderstorm development.  The word isolated should be stressed here.  It is also nearly impossible to be able to tell where one of these isolated storms may form.

Given the degree of instability and shear, any storm that does form and become established will likely become supercell in nature with the potential for very large hail and damaging winds.  While there is a tornado risk, it can be considered small as large spreads in temperature and dewpoint will result in high cloud bases which are typically unfavorable for the development of tornadoes.  Dryline storms will likely weaken within a couple of hours after sunset.

There are some signals that thunderstorms will form along a southeastward surging cold front from late evening into the overnight hours.  Model guidance is quite spread concerning this scenario with most indicating little chance of this, and some having a strong signal.  Should an organized line of thunderstorms form along the front, there will be the potential for a few severe events including marginally severe hail and gusty winds.

People in the state with outdoor plans should continue with their activities, but stay weather aware by late afternoon and be prepared to move to shelter if thunderstorms approach.

Severe thunderstorms possible across Oklahoma on Mothers Day

Severe weather potential will increase across the state on Sunday.  Early indications are that a strong upper system over the Rockies will be close enough to start spreading lift across the Central and Southern Plains by late afternoon.  A cold front will be moving southeast across Kansas, and a dryline will be located over far Western Oklahoma.

Low level moisture is increasing, and the atmosphere is expected to become quite unstable by late afternoon on Sunday.  Currently, it appears the most likely area to see severe thunderstorms will be across Northwest Oklahoma.  There will be some risk farther south along the dryline into Southwest Oklahoma, but this region will need to be evaluated Sunday morning to determine the chances of storm initiation.

By late in the evening, it appears that a line of severe thunderstorms will sweep southeastward into central sections of the state.

Initial storms will have the greatest chance of being supercell in nature with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes possible.  At this time, It appears this risk will stay west of the OKC metro area.  Again, further evaluation regarding this will be needed on Sunday morning.