Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

A strong upper system will move across the Plains on Thursday.  This system will be responsible for a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms just east of the state.  A small short wave ridge will move over Oklahoma on Friday as a large long wave trough evolves over the Western U.S.  The axis of this trough will begin to move toward/over the Plains over the weekend.  By Sunday, a strong jet segment at the base of the trough will be ejecting northeastward out of South Texas toward the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible over far Eastern Oklahoma early on Thursday.  Otherwise, the only precipitation expected through the weekend will be on Saturday and Sunday when scattered showers will develop over mainly Western and Southern Oklahoma in response to the approaching trough.

Very mild air Thursday morning will be replaced by cooler air behind a cold front which is expected to pass across Central Oklahoma around 9 am.  For the rest of this period, temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal.  A frost or light freeze will be possible over the Panhandle and Northwest on Friday morning, and a frost or light freeze will be possible over Northeast Oklahoma on Saturday morning.

Okarche Weather:

Thursday morning: 65

Thursday: 67

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Friday: 60

Saturday morning: 41

Saturday: 62 / Showers possible

Sunday morning: 42 / Showers possible

Sunday: 60 / Showers likely

Severe weather outbreak expected today

A dangerous outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is expected today – on this 40th anniversary of the Super Outbreak.  On April 3-4, 1974, 148 tornadoes occurred from Michigan and Illinois to Georgia and Alabama.  Many of the tornadoes were violent and resulted in the deaths of 319 people.  That outbreak stood as the largest on record until 2011 when 211 tornadoes occurred on April 27-28.

For today, severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Ozarks region to parts of the Mid-South and Lower Ohio Valley.  The most likely area for tornadoes will be across Central and Southern Missouri, Southwest Illinois, Northeast Arkansas, and small adjacent areas of Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky.  Some of the tornadoes will be violent and long-tracked.

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For an extreme event, one would generally see a bit stronger mid-level system, and a deeper surface cyclone.  Still, parameters at their basic level support the threat of dangerous storms over a large area.

Some severe thunderstorms have already formed over North Texas this morning.  By early afternoon, more widespread severe storms will develop across much of Central and Southern Missouri.  By mid afternoon, other storms will form across Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.  By late afternoon, a widespread outbreak of severe storms will be underway from Central Texas to Illinois.  These storms will continue to spread north and east during the evening hours.