Severe thunderstorm risk January 10

011014AThe Storm Prediction Center has outlined a 2% tornado risk for Friday across portions of NC and NE Texas, and adjacent areas of SE Oklahoma/SW Arkansas/NW Louisiana.  There is also a 2% tornado risk area which extends along the Northern Gulf Coast from SE Louisiana to the western end of the Florida Panhandle.

An upper level short wave trough of low pressure will be moving eastward across the Central and Southern Plains.  In response, there will be an increasing low level jet extending from Texas and Louisiana, northward into Illinois.  At the surface, weak low pressure will be found by early evening near Paris, Texas.  Increasing moisture across the warm sector will lead to the atmosphere becoming increasingly unstable and supportive of a few sustained vigorous updrafts.  Shear profiles favor a risk of rotating storms with at least a low probability of a tornado in the outlined areas.

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Amazing amounts of rain have fallen over localized areas of E Florida.  Spotter reports have exceeded 12 inches, and radar estimates are approaching 18 inches near Boynton Beach.  There are numerous reports of stranded vehicles and water into homes.