Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

121813aA broad and complex upper low is spinning around Hudson Bay this Wednesday evening.  A shortwave trough is rotating around the low and has arctic air on the move south.  The cold air has moved into Montana/North Dakota/Minnesota this evening.  The front will be entering Northern Kansas at daybreak on Thursday, and reach far northwest Oklahoma by sunset.  Thursday will be a very nice day across the state with temperatures well above normal.

As the front moves across the state Thursday night, low temperatures will fall below freezing across much of the northwestern half of the state.  It will be hard for temperatures to get out of the 30’s during the day, Friday.

While the above is going on Thursday and Friday, a very strong upper level low pressure area will be diving southward along the West Coast.  The system will begin to turn eastward toward the Southern Plains and be located near El Paso, Texas at daybreak on Saturday.

Late Friday evening, precipitation will start to break out just south and southwest of Oklahoma.  By Saturday morning, widespread showers and thunderstorms will have expanded northeastward across the southeast 2/3’s of the state.  Forecast soundings indicate mostly a rain event with this initial precipitation, but areas along and north of I-44 will need to be monitored for the possibility of freezing rain.  At this time, it does not appear that icing will be a significant problem.

By Saturday afternoon, the precipitation across the southeast half of the state will begin to weaken and move out of the area.  Attention then turns to the center of the approaching upper system which is expected to track from near Altus to near Tulsa.  Widespread precipitation will be breaking out along and north of this track Saturday afternoon, with precipitation lasting through the early morning hours of Sunday.  Strong lifting associated with the upper system will likely be sufficient to result in cooling aloft, so that snow will begin falling northwest of a line from Erick to Kingfisher to Nowata.  While most of the state northwest of that line will receive 1 to 2 inches of snow, it is possible that some very heavy bands of snow could set up which would result in greater than 6 inches in some places.  It currently appears that the most likely areas for the heaviest snow would be from Beaver and Gage, to Woodward, Alva and Medford.

While precipitation will have ended statewide by Sunday morning, quite cold conditions will exist across the state.  Areas with snow cover may see temperatures fall into the single digits by Monday morning.

Okarche Weather:

Thursday morning: 47
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Thursday: 70

Friday morning: 28

Friday: 37 / Rain possible late

Saturday morning: 29 / Freezing rain

Saturday: 34 / Rain and snow possible

Sunday morning: 26 / Flurries

Sunday: 34