A very complex weather event will be unfolding over the next 24 to 48 hours. Strong upper level flow extends from Western Canada to the Eastern U.S. Meanwhile, a strong closed upper low is located over the Southwest U.S. This feature is moving eastward toward the Southern Plains. Models are in general agreement that a strong short wave trough embedded in the northern stream flow will dive toward the Midwest as the Southwest U.S. low moves over the Southern High Plains. The interaction between these two features is expected to cause the approaching upper low to deepen and begin to dig toward South Texas from late Sunday through Monday. Precipitation will be expanding northeastward out of West Texas with the approach of the upper low. The question becomes how much and how far northeast will it expand? Currently it appears that the NAM/SREF are overdoing precipitation amounts, while the GFS seems suspiciously lacking. As the upper low begins to dig away from Oklahoma on Sunday, it becomes easy to lean toward the drier GFS, but not quite to the degree of recent solutions.
At the surface, temperatures over Oklahoma have moderated some this afternoon. However, a secondary surge of cold and dry surface air is moving south associated with strong high pressure currently located over Iowa. Temperatures by morning will have fallen below freezing across all of the state. They will have a hard time getting back to near freezing during the day on Sunday as precipitation begins to fall through the dry air near the surface. With this in mind, most places will be seeing all snow on Sunday, but a few places may see a sleet/snow mix at times.
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Snow is expected to begin near or just before daybreak across Western Oklahoma. The most likely area to see significant snowfall will be across Southern and Western Oklahoma where amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible. From Northwest to Central to Southeast Oklahoma, snowfall of 1 to 3 inches will be possible. Most of the heavier snow will have ended by Sunday evening, but some light snow may occur off and on through Monday.