Low pressure is located near Ponca City this morning, and a cold front extends from the low – southwestward into the Texas Panhandle. The low will deepen a little today as it begins to move quickly eastward. As this occurs, the cold front will sweep across the state. In the wake of the front, winds will become northwesterly and increase in speed. From the Texas Panhandle to portions of South Central Oklahoma, wind gusts this afternoon may reach 40 to 45 mph. The winds will be subsiding shortly after sunset.
A strong storm system is moving across the state tonight. This system will be east of Oklahoma by Thursday afternoon. As the cold front passes and showers and thunderstorms end, gusty northwest winds between 30 and 40 mph will overspread the state.
Surface high pressure will build over the state through the start of the weekend, while an upper ridge moves eastward across the western half of the U.S.
A large trough of low pressure will take shape over the Western U.S. by the end of the weekend, and the state will once again be under southwest flow aloft. As this occurs, deep surface low pressure will organize over the Central High Plains. Winds on Sunday will be out of the south southwest, gusting to between 30 and 40 mph. While there may be a slight chance of precipitation by late Sunday, higher rain chances won’t be realized until the start of the coming week.
Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal through the period.
Thursday morning: 54 / Showers possible
Friday morning: 49
Saturday morning: 42
Sunday morning: 42
Model guidance and satellite imagery suggest that a weak short wave trough is moving east northeastward through New Mexico this morning. Meanwhile, the atmosphere across the state has become somewhat moist with 50 and 60 dewpoints having spread northward over the last 24 hours. Morning sounding data suggest that this moisture is not very deep, and that this will play an important part in how organized storms become later today.
As moisture continues to increase and subtle lifting from the approaching wave reach the western edge of the moist plume, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected from Southwest Kansas to the Texas South Plains. The combination of a vertical wind profile supportive of supercell storms, and steepening lapse rates by evening suggest that a few severe events will be possible. Limited moisture will likely prevent more than a couple of severe storms from occurring.
Storm development is expected around sunset this evening, with activity spreading into Western Oklahoma during the late evening hours. A few large hail reports, and some severe wind reports seem possible before the storms become somewhat elevated and outrun the plume of marginal instability, which will exist across West Texas and far Western Oklahoma. While non-zero, the tornado threat is expected to be limited by the overall limited instability and lessening low level shear with eastward extent.
Strong / but not likely severe storms / will continue through the overnight hours into Central Oklahoma.
Highly variable model guidance over the last couple of days has come into a little better agreement this evening.
Tonight, a very strong upper low pressure area is dropping southeastward through Oregon. This low will be located over Nevada by Monday afternoon, with strong diffluent flow spreading northeastward from Southern California across the Rockies and High Plains. The low will become elongated and take on a positive tilt over the Western U.S. by Tuesday afternoon, and strong flow will expand across the Central and Southern Plains. By Wednesday afternoon, the center of the upper system will be moving northeast over the Northern High Plains. Strong southwest flow will persist across the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
The end result of this weather pattern will be a return to spring like conditions across the state through Wednesday. It will be warm and humid with episodes of showers and thunderstorms.
** There will be a chance of severe thunderstorms each day, Monday through Wednesday. The daily risk will be addressed each morning around 11 am.
Winds have returned to southerly this evening and low level moisture is increasing. Short range model guidance suggests that areas of dense fog will form over the state tonight. Fog should first form over Southern Oklahoma by Midnight and spread northward to the Kansas border by daybreak Monday. Surface low pressure will be organizing near the western end of the Oklahoma Panhandle Monday afternoon. A warm front will extend northeastward across Kansas, and a dry line will develop southward over the Texas Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form by late afternoon near these features, with some storms lingering through the night across the northern half of the state.
Any remaining precipitation early Tuesday should diminish by late morning. By afternoon, more storms are expected to form along the dry line from Western Kansas to Western Texas. This activity will expand in coverage from late Tuesday to early Wednesday as it moves/develops eastward across the state.
The area of surface low pressure will move toward Iowa on Wednesday and a front will be approaching the state. There will be widespread showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance of heavy rainfall over the southeast half of Oklahoma. Precipitation will be coming to an end very late Wednesday and early Thursday as a cold front begins to push across the state.
Monday morning: 50 / Foggy
Tuesday morning: 61 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Wednesday morning: 64 / Showers and thunderstorms likely
Wednesday: 72 / Showers and thunderstorms likely
The weather pattern over the U.S. will be somewhat complex through the weekend. Currently, a broad trough of low pressure is located over the Eastern U.S., with a ridge extending from the Pacific Northwest to the Southern Rockies. A weak low pressure area is located over Southern California. The eastern trough will move northeastward and exit the Northeast U.S. by the start of the weekend. Meanwhile, another strong short wave trough will be diving southeast across the Great Lakes. This will help to maintain a trough over the Eastern U.S., which will aid in the southward movement of cold air. The Southwestern U.S. low will be tracking eastward and begin to affect the state on Saturday.
A cold front is moving southward across the state this evening. Temperatures behind this front will be a little cooler than normal through Saturday morning. The coldest part of this forecast period will be Friday morning when temperatures will approach freezing over the northeast section of the state. Temperatures will attempt to warm on Saturday ahead of the next front; however, an increase in cloudiness and precipitation will keep temperatures in check. Sunday will once again see temperatures slightly below normal.
Thursday morning: 44
Friday morning: 38
Saturday morning: 49 / Showers possible
Saturday: 65 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Sunday morning: 41
A strong mid-level jet segment is diving southeastward across the Northern and Central Plains this evening. By Wednesday morning, this feature will have helped carve out a broad long wave trough over the Eastern U.S.
This weather pattern will favor frequent frontal passages for the state.
A cold front over Northwest Oklahoma will move steadily southeastward overnight, reaching Southeast Oklahoma by daybreak. The front will be exiting Southeast Oklahoma during the afternoon on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight in a warm air advection regime which is developing over the state. Other showers are likely along and behind the front as it advances southeastward. Precipitation is expected to linger into the morning hours over central sections of the state.
During the morning hours on Tuesday, winds are expected to become westerly over the state with temperatures warming to near normal during the day. Another weak front will be pushing south across the state by late afternoon, and temperatures will fall below normal again by Wednesday morning. This cold air intrusion will be brief and temperatures will warm up Wednesday on increasing south winds. Another front will pay a visit to the area by Thursday morning.
Monday morning: 45 / Showers
Tuesday morning: 40
Wednesday morning: 40
The low temperature in Okarche this morning dropped to 32 degrees. This falls about mid-way between the record earliest freeze (October 7) and the average first freeze (October 31). Since 1936, only 13 years have seen a first freeze on or before October 19th.
Chilly low temperatures this morning never recovered with extensive cloud cover and a cold rain falling. The high temperature in Okarche today was 51 degrees which sets a record for the lowest high temperature on the date. The previous record was 52 degrees set in 1989.
Temperatures will fall into the low 30′s tonight in the Okarche area.
The National Weather Service has:
***Freeze warning for Kingfisher County***
***Frost advisory for Canadian County***
The record low temperature for tonight in Okarche is 27 degrees. We should stay several degrees above the record.
The high temperature in Okarche on Wednesday the 16th only reached 55 degrees. This set a record for the lowest high temperature on the date. The previous record was 56 degrees set in 1941.
With a high of 55 degrees and a low of 40 degrees, the average temperature for the day was 48 degrees. This was 15 degrees below normal.
There are significant differences in model solutions this evening, causing a lower than normal level of confidence in the forecast through the weekend. In general, a broad trough of low pressure is expected to persist through Sunday from Hudson Bay to the Southern Plains.
There are timing and intensity differences with waves embedded in the strong upper flow. One wave passed over Oklahoma on Wednesday and continues to move away from the state. Another wave will be diving southeast from the Northern Rockies/Plains on Friday. Yet another wave will be dropping southeast toward the end of the weekend and the start of next week.
Temperatures will warm slightly on Thursday, before dropping again on Friday as a cold front passes the state. Lift associated with the approaching system on Friday is also likely to cause widespread light rain. Temperatures will be much below normal on Friday. On Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will be warmer, but still expected to be below normal.
Gardeners should prepare for a possible frost on Saturday morning.
Thursday morning: 38
Friday morning: 44
Friday: 55 / Showers likely
Saturday morning: 34 / Frost possible
Sunday morning: 42