This lightning shoot almost became an actual storm chase as it involved a supercell storm east of Woodward, OK. Storms on the 29th were very good lightning producers and this one was sending out a cloud to ground strike about every two seconds.
An upper level low pressure area over the Great Lakes will be lifting northeastward on Monday. High pressure over the Southern U.S. will be strengthening. Between the two, generally zonal flow with embedded short wave troughs will extend from the Central and Northern Rockies to the Midwest. One such trough is expected to be strong enough to enhance warm air advection across the state, leading to showers and thunderstorms from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. The greatest chances of storms will be found across the northern half of the state. A boundary / part front and part outflow from previous storms / is expected to be located across NC and NW Oklahoma on Tuesday afternoon. This feature may provide focus for a few storms late on Tuesday, but with stronger capping in place, the activity should be fairly isolated. By Wednesday, an upper level high pressure area will be centered near SW New Mexico and a strong short wave trough will be diving southeastward out of the Northern Plains toward the Midwest. This will allow a cold front to enter far N Oklahoma late on Wednesday with another chance of showers and thunderstorms behind it. Temperatures will be slightly below normal on Monday warming to slightly above by Wednesday.
Monday morning: 68
Monday: 88 / Showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday morning: 71 / Showers
Tuesday: 95 / Showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday morning: 71
Rain continues to fall in Okarche this morning and as of 8 a.m. the July total has reached 8.04 inches. The 2.17 inches of rain overnight easily pushed this to the wettest July of record – blowing away the 6.04 inch record previously set in 2010.
How wet is 8.04 inches? To compare it to other months that are typically wet in Oklahoma, this would be the wettest March / 2nd wettest April / 5th wettest May / 4th wettest June / or 3rd wettest October.
It’s possible that another 1/4 inch of rain could fall this morning. What’s more amazing is that another system on Monday and Tuesday could add another inch or so of rainfall to the month. For those with short memories, the total precipitation in July one year ago was 0.08 of an inch.
A few lightning images from the evening of July 23rd. These were captured in Northwest Oklahoma.
Upper: A strong short wave trough will be moving southeastward out of Canada and across the Dakota’s on Thursday. This wave is expected to carve out a fairly deep low over the Western Great Lakes which will move slowly eastward through the weekend. High pressure will remain over the Western U.S., and it will weaken some over the weekend. Weak short wave troughs embedded in northwest flow will move across the state through Sunday. The stronger waves will be impacting the state late Thursday and late Sunday.
Surface: Low pressure will deepen over the Oklahoma Panhandle Thursday. This low will move across the state on Friday with its associated cold front clearing the state by late in the day. A weak high pressure ridge will settle into the state on Saturday. Deep low pressure is expected to organize over far SW Kansas on Sunday with the surface front lifting back north of the state.
Impacts: The weather pattern will be unusually active for July through the weekend. Deepening low pressure, an unstable atmosphere and lift from an approaching short wave trough will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms forming from W Kansas to the Texas Panhandle by Thursday afternoon. Organized severe storms are expected to move southeastward through W Oklahoma during the late evening, and across C and E Oklahoma during the overnight hours. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but some large hail is also possible. Storms will likely continue into the afternoon hours over far E Oklahoma. Behind the low/front, winds will become brisk out of the northeast bringing below normal temperatures across the state. Saturday and Sunday morning will be mild across Oklahoma. By Sunday afternoon and evening, more showers and thunderstorms will form to the northwest of the state. These storms will once again have the potential to produce damaging winds as they spread southeastward across Oklahoma.
Thursday morning: 69
Friday morning: 65 / Showers and thunderstorms
Saturday morning: 66
Sunday morning: 67
Upper: A broad trough of low pressure is currently found over the Eastern U.S. High pressure is located over the southwestern part of the country. Moderately strong west northwest flow extends from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern and Central Plains. There are embedded short wave troughs which will help to maintain the eastern trough, while the high pressure over the southwest strengthens through mid-week.
Surface: A cold front will be pushing eastward across the north central part of the U.S. at daybreak Monday. As this front moves through the Great Lakes on Tuesday, the trailing end of it will reach to low pressure over Southwest Kansas. While nearly stationary, the boundary is expected to drop a little south by Wednesday, across Northern Oklahoma.
Impacts: It will be quite warm across Oklahoma through Wednesday. While recent rains may prevent temperatures from getting too far out of hand, the high humidity will result in high / possibly dangerous / heat index levels. Very little cooling is expected north of the weak front over Northern Oklahoma on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form across Kansas each afternoon Monday through Wednesday. The steering flow will allow for some of this activity to move over Northern Oklahoma each afternoon and evening, with the greatest chances coming Tuesday evening. Some of the storms may be severe with the potential to produce damaging winds.
Monday morning: 73
Tuesday morning: 74
Wednesday morning: 74 / Showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday: 96 / Showers and thunderstorms
Upper: The low pressure area which gave Oklahoma a considerable amount of precipitation has moved away from the state… dropping into far Northern Mexico. A sprawling area of high pressure extends from Nevada to Virginia with a weakness in heights found over the Plains. Strong westerly flow lies near and north of the Canada/U.S. border. A stout wave embedded in this flow will swing southeastward helping to establish a broad low amplitude trough over the Eastern U.S. while high pressure remains in control over the west through Sunday.
Surface: A cold front is expected to move southeastward across the Plains over the next couple of days… becoming nearly stationary just north of the state. Overall, the pressure gradient over Oklahoma will be fairly weak through the weekend.
Impacts: A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across Oklahoma on Thursday during the period of peak afternoon heating. Thunderstorms which form along the front in Kansas on Friday may move into NW Oklahoma late in the day. A redevelopment of storms seems likely on Saturday mainly across N and E Oklahoma. Sunday looks dry, though an isolated shower or storm will remain possible. Temperatures are expected to gradually return to seasonal normal and winds will be fairly light through the weekend.
Thursday morning: 67
Friday morning: 69
Saturday morning: 70
Sunday morning: 72
For the third day in a row, the atmosphere over Oklahoma is moist, unstable and uncapped. There will be a near 100 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms – some producing very heavy rainfall and gusty winds – over all of C Oklahoma this afternoon. Rainfall over C Oklahoma has been impressive over the last four days with many spots seeing over 4 inches of precipitation. The total in Okarche has been 3.83 inches.
Upper: The low pressure area passing over Oklahoma will reach the SE Texas Panhandle by Monday evening. It is expected to keep its identity as it moves over E New Mexico on Tuesday. The much weaker system will drop to SW New Mexico by Wednesday.
Surface: Through Wednesday, high pressure will be found over much of the Eastern U.S. with low pressure over the Northern High Plains. The pressure gradient over Oklahoma will be quite weak and somewhat disorganized through the period.
Impacts: Quite high precipitable water amounts are now found across Oklahoma and will continue to stream over the state on southeast flow behind the upper low. Showers and thunderstorms will be numerous at daybreak on Monday with the activity continuing through much of Tuesday. The greatest chances of rain on Tuesday will be over the southern and western parts of the state. Rain chances will begin to diminish by Wednesday, but there will still be widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The precipitation and cloud cover will result in temperatures below normal – the weak pressure gradient will result in light winds by Oklahoma standards.
Monday morning: 63 / Showers and thunderstorms
Monday: 75 / Showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday morning: 64 / Showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday: 86 / Showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday morning: 69 / Showers
Wednesday: 89 / Showers