Southwest Kansas storms – May 28, 2013

We experienced several dry microbursts near Protection, Kansas where we estimated winds easily over 60 mph.  From there, we drove south to near the Kansas/Oklahoma border and came away with some lightning images.  Our close proximity to Dodge City, Kansas made it an easy choice for a place to overnight.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1W0lKmnLpE

Kansas supercells – May 27, 2013

This day started with high expectations.  An extremely unstable atmosphere was in place across Kansas – north of an outflow boundary which took up a northwest to southeast position just south of Salina.  A strong dryline worked through the southwest part of Kansas and low level moisture was flowing westward north of the dryline.  Aloft, moderate to strong mid-level westerly winds were blowing across the northern half of the state.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1W0lKmnLpE

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

Upper: A strong storm system is moving eastward through Montana/Wyoming this morning.  As this system moves over the Northern Plains, moderately strong westerly mid-level flow will be spreading across the Central Plains, and northern sections of the Southern Plains.  By Wednesday evening, the weakening system will be moving through the Great Lakes with moderate northwest flow trailing it across Oklahoma.

Surface: Low pressure has organized over E Colorado.  Increasing south winds are found across much of the Plains.  The surface low will propagate southward over the next 48 hours to WC Texas.  This will allow a cold front to enter NW Oklahoma by Wednesday morning.  The front will have pushed through most all of the state by Thursday morning.

Impacts: Increasing south winds will result in a steady increase in low-level moisture through the period.  Subtle lifting associated with an approaching short wave trough, combined with afternoon heating and low level convergence along a dryline, will result in thunderstorms forming Monday afternoon over the Panhandle.  These storms will pose a threat of severe weather by evening as they move into W Oklahoma.  Storms may continue through the night into central sections of the state.  By late Tuesday, more showers and thunderstorms are expected to form in NW Oklahoma and spread southeastward across the state.  Favorable wind shear combined with a very moist and unstable atmosphere will result in severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds.  A tornado or two cannot be ruled out.  More showers and thunderstorms are expected statewide on Wednesday before coming to an end Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 55

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Tuesday morning: 62 / Showers and thunderstorms

Tuesday: 86 / Showers and thunderstorms

Wednesday morning: 63 / Showers and thunderstorms

Wednesday: 77 / Showers and thunderstorms