A few showers/storms possible this afternoon (11th)

This afternoon, a strong short wave trough will swing southeastward out of the Dakotas toward the Midwest.  This will be the catalysis to get a cold front rolling south through the Plains today.  The front is expected to enter Northern Oklahoma later this morning, and should clear the Red River by this evening.

Forecast soundings show that with strong afternoon heating today, low and mid-level lapse rates will be quite steep.  While not expecting strong instability, MUCAPE on the order of 750 to 1250 j/kg is expected to be found near the I-40 corridor by early afternoon.  There are several model signals supporting showers and thunderstorms developing along the front around 2 or 3 pm.  These will spread southward through the remainder of the afternoon and start to weaken over Southern Oklahoma with the loss of daytime heating.

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