Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

Upper: A broad trough of low pressure will be located over the Eastern U.S. Thursday morning.  A small, but fairly strong closed low will be found near San Diego, California.  Precipitation chances over the next several days will be largely tied to the Southern California upper low.  The system will be tracking across the Southern High Plains by sunrise Friday, and will have passed Oklahoma by early Saturday, as it moves toward Middle Mississippi Valley.  Through the end of the weekend, stronger flow aloft will be confined to the northern half of the country, with weak and somewhat disorganized flow over the Southern Plains.

Surface: Thursday will start cold in Oklahoma.  High pressure over the state will remain in control during the first part of the day with generally light and variable winds.  Quite a few mid and high level clouds tonight will help keep temperatures just a bit warmer than they would be with clear skies.  South winds will return across all of Oklahoma by Thursday afternoon, becoming quite strong over the Panhandle.  By Friday morning, the approach of the upper system will result in surface low pressure becoming organized over the Texas Panhandle.  Scattered showers thunderstorms are expected to increase during the morning hours as lifting associated with the upper system, and low-level moisture increases.  This low will track eastward along the Red River from Friday evening into Saturday morning.  The greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms will be over the southern half of the state late Friday and early Saturday.  A few of the storms could become severe, with some large hail expected.  As the low slides by, winds will become light northeasterly across the state and slightly cooler air will filter into Northeast and Central Oklahoma.  The cool down will be brief with warm south winds returning statewide on Sunday.

Okarche weather:

Thursday morning: 32

Thursday: 69

Friday morning: 49 / Showers and thunderstorms
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Friday: 64 / Showers and thunderstorms

Saturday morning: 49 / Showers

Saturday: 70

Sunday morning: 47

Sunday: 77

Northwest Oklahoma severe – April 22, 2013

There were strong model signals that isolated or scattered thunderstorms would form across Northwest Oklahoma this afternoon.  Meager moisture was resulting in only moderate, but sufficient instability, to support severe storms, and shear profiles favored rotating storms (supercells).  I drove northwest and fueled in Seiling as storms formed near Woodward and along the Kansas border northwest of Alva.  As I was leaving Seiling, the Woodward storms started weakening, both visually and on radar.  The storms near the Kansas border were looking more impressive and they became my targets.  A lead storm that moved just east of Cherokee was rather high-based, and had a lot of cold outflow undercutting it.  A trailing storm was going to be passing close to Alva.  This storm looked better on radar, and I figured that it might be able to perform a little better if it could play on a boundary put down by the Cherokee storm.  While it is doubtful that the Alva storm produced a tornado, it did produce just about everything else.  There were plenty of nice supercell features to observe with this storm as it rolled southeast through Woods and Alfalfa Counties.  I even managed to get a few lightning images in Southern Alfalfa County before returning home.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vU2ku_ksVBM

April 22, 2013 Chase Route

 

 

 

 
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Storms near Kansas border over canola field.

 

Supercell near Alva.