Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

Considerable run to run, and model to model uncertainty exists this afternoon, leading the forecast for the next several days to have less than normal confidence.  A strong upper system over the Northern Plains this afternoon is expected to race northeastward passing over the Northern Great Lakes Monday afternoon.  Out west, a strong jet segment is diving southeastward along the Northern California coast.  This will gradually help to carve out a deep long wave trough over the Rockies and Southwest U.S. by Wednesday morning.  The trough will drift eastward, reaching the Plains by daybreak Thursday.

Now things get tricky.  As the system to our north passes, a cold front will be pushing south through the state.  By daybreak Monday, this boundary will have become nearly stationary from Fort Smith, Arkansas to south of Ardmore.  Any overnight showers and thunderstorms along the front will be weakening over far Eastern Oklahoma.  During the day Monday, the front will remain nearly stationary over Southern Oklahoma.  An increase in moisture/instability will lead to some late day showers and thunderstorms over generally the southeast 1/3 of the state.  A few of these storms could be severe.  By early Tuesday, the front will begin to move slowly northward reaching to near the I-40 corridor.  The atmosphere over the southeast 2/3’s of the state will be much more moist and very unstable.  Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the southern 2/3’s of the state.  Given the degree of instability and shear, several of these storms may become severe with large hail and damaging winds.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist across the state during the overnight hours of Tuesday into Wednesday.  During the day Wednesday, the front is likely to remain near the I-40 cooridor – anchored in response to the approach of the Western U.S. trough and deepening surface low pressure near the Oklahoma Panhandle.  The atmosphere across the state on Wednesday is once again likely to become very unstable, and there will be sufficient shear to support storms with rotating updrafts capable of large hail and damaging winds.  The front will begin to surge southeastward late Wednesday clearing most of Oklahoma by sunrise on Thursday.  In its wake will be much colder temperatures and strong north winds.

Okarche weather:

Monday morning: 47

Monday: 64
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Tuesday morning: 45

Tuesday: 59 / Showers and thunderstorms

Wednesday morning: 48 / Showers and thunderstorms

Wednesday: 69 / Showers and thunderstorms