Severe storms/strong winds/elevated fire danger on Sunday

A strong upper storm system will be moving out of the Northern Rockies toward the Northern Plains during the next 24 hours.  A strong mid-level jet segment will accompany the system with westerly 500 mb winds expected to increase across Oklahoma to over 50 knots by Sunday afternoon.  A cold front will be moving southward reaching far Northwest Oklahoma by Noon and Central Oklahoma by 6 pm.  In advance of this front, south to southwest winds will be quite strong during the day with frequent gusts to between 35 and 40 mph.  A dryline will work through much of Western Oklahoma on Sunday.  Dry air and strong winds will help to elevate fire danger during the afternoon.  In the moist sector, low level moisture is expected to increase with surface dew points increasing to over 60 degrees across Central and Eastern Oklahoma.  This will result in the atmosphere becoming quite unstable with MLCAPE exceeding 1500 j/kg by late afternoon.  Model signals are strong in indicating that storms will begin forming along the cold front over Northern Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon.  The unstable atmosphere combined with strong shear profiles suggest that a few of these storms will become severe, producing large hail and damaging winds as they move east southeastward.  Some forecast soundings suggest that there will be the potential for a couple of supercell storms… and go further to indicate that there will be low-end tornado potential.  The severe threat will begin to wane within a couple of hours after sunset.


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