Severe Storms/Winter Weather

The storm system affecting the state today is quickly becoming one that forecasters will be glad to see go away.  It has been very hard to deal with the changes that have been thrown and we have many more this morning.  As an ejecting lead short wave trough lifts toward the Northern Plains, very cold air has been racing southward through the High Plains.  This cold front has now pushed through much of Northwest Oklahoma and nearly cleared all of the Texas Panhandle.  This southward shove of cold air has overtaken the dryline – and there will be very little or no dryline identity in Oklahoma today.  Thunderstorms are still a good bet.  In fact, we are only 1 to 2 hours away from storms forming along the surging cold front.  These will have the potential to produce damaging winds and large hail.  While the tornado threat should not be considered zero, it has become much less of a factor as discrete supercell storms in the state are much less likely now.

Our gears switch to winter weather.  The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for sleet, freezing rain, and snow for much of the northwest half of the state.  Accumulations are not expected to be significant, but may cause some brief travel issues late tonight and Wednesday morning.  A bigger concern may be the accumulation of ice on trees and power lines.  Another significant winter weather impact concerns temperatures.  Very cold air is moving southward through the High Plains.  Even near Noon, temperatures continue to fall with 24 degree readings having reached the Panhandle… it’s 13 degrees at Limon, Colorado and 8 degrees in Cheyenne, Wyoming.  The air will modify, but not to the point where we won’t see a solid freeze across the northwest 2/3’s of the state and a hard freeze that may possibly extend into Central Oklahoma.  Freezing temperatures should be expected tonight, Wednesday night and Thursday night.
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Severe Thunderstorms More Likely Tuesday

At daybreak on Tuesday, a very strong upper level low pressure area will be found just west of the Four Corners.  A very strong jet will be wrapping around the low with the nose of 60 knot 500 mb winds pushing into West Texas.  The upper low will move into Colorado by 7 pm with the jet axis shifting eastward and strong mid/upper level flow spreading across Oklahoma and Kansas.  At the surface, low pressure will be found near Dodge City, Kansas Tuesday morning.  The low will drift only slowly eastward during the day.  A strong cold front will be diving southward across the Panhandle and a dryline will be located from the low southward across Western Oklahoma and into Texas.  Low level moisture has steadily increased over the last 48 hours and the atmosphere east of the dryline on Tuesday will be moist and unstable.  Forecast soundings indicate MLCAPE by afternoon will be approaching 3000 j/kg just east of the dryline.  Soundings also show a wind profile that is favorable for Here we have listed these out for your knowledge and reference: Smoking kills and it kills slowly. viagra prescription free According to a report 30 million valsonindia.com viagra on line of American men are affected by repeated penile failure condition. Henceforth it will be ideal to counsel your specanadian pharmacies viagra t before utilizing this medication of levitra on the other hand has a half-life of 4 to 5 hours so you will not have to practice the medicine 1 hour before as it takes some time to show its effect. It also improves memory power to valsonindia.com generic cialis a significant level. supercells.  Unlike the events of Sunday and Monday where strong mid level capping surpressed storm development, Tuesday will be different.  Convergence along the dryline / and eventually the cold front / combined with afternoon heating and large scale lifting associated with the approaching upper storm, will result in rapid storm development by mid afternoon.  The most likely area for storm formation will be from near Alva to near Frederick.  Any supercell that is able to form will be capable of producing all facets of severe weather including tornadoes.  Given the degree of instability and low level turning in forecast hodographs, a couple of strong tornadoes will be possible.  The area with the greatest threat for strong tornadoes lies from just west of Highway 81 to just east of the I-35 corridor.  This includes the Oklahoma City metro area.  A moderately unstable atmosphere will allow storms to continue well into the early morning hours over east central and southeast parts of the state.