Snowfall Potential (update)

The updated thinking for snowfall potential on Tuesday shifts the center of highest snow amounts south a bit, and reduces expected amounts in parts of Northeast Oklahoma.

This is an event where it is good to remind people that there is a difference between snowfall and snow depth.  The two are different and are measured differently.  With a considerable amount of melting, there are locations which may see a depth of about half the amount that actually fell.

In general, the thinking remains about the same.  The shift in max snowfall is more in line with what has become a good agreement among models over the past 24 hours.  A strong vort max is located near the southeast corner of Arizona and the southwest corner of New Mexico.  This feature will be moving into West Texas by sunrise, Northwest Texas by noon, Central Oklahoma by 6 pm, and into Northern Arkansas by daybreak on Wednesday.

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The precipitation will taper off after dark with only very light snow remaining in far Northeast Oklahoma at sunrise on Wednesday.

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

A strong mid-level jet segment will continue to work into the base of the Western U.S. trough, resulting in a low/vorticity center becoming organized over the Four Corners/Arizona by Monday evening.  A surface high pressure ridge will extend from the Central Plains to the Southeast U.S. resulting in light easterly winds across Oklahoma with a high reaching 55 degrees in Okarche.  Skies during the day Monday will become increasingly cloudy as evening approaches.  The low temperature by Tuesday morning will drop to around 33 degrees.

The increase in cloud cover Monday night will be a result of the Southwestern U.S. system approaching the Southern Plains.  This system will generally move straight east across the state, reaching Eastern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning. Strong lifting and ample moisture will result in widespread precipitation across Oklahoma, starting at daybreak on Tuesday and continuing throughout the day and evening hours.  The precipitation will be ending over Northeast Oklahoma at daybreak on Wednesday.  A combination of extensive cloud cover and precipitation, a cool easterly surface flow, and a steadily cooling column of air as the upper system moves overhead, will result in a steady temperature around 35 degrees on Tuesday.  The temperature will fall to around 32 degrees by early evening.  Meanwhile, a cold rain will transition to snow by mid-afternoon.  2 to 4 inches of snow is expected in the Okarche area.  A longer duration of snow will result in the highest accumulations of snow in Western Oklahoma with diminishing amounts farther east.  The greatest snowfall totals will range from 4 to 6 inches.  As the system moves by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, surface winds will become gusty out of the north.  The low temperature in Okarche will drop to 27 degrees.

Where snow cover exists on Wednesday, the high temperature is not likely to get out of the 30’s. Meanwhile, portions of Southern and Eastern Oklahoma will see highs reach into 50’s.  For Okarche, with the idea that there will be snow cover, the high should be around 39 degrees.  Skies will be mostly sunny in the wake of the storm system with mostly light northwest winds.
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The weather Wednesday night will be interesting as temperatures and possible fog/low clouds will vary greatly depending on remaining snow cover.  Again, with Okarche expected to be in this area of snow cover, it appears that fog and a low of 28 degrees is possible.