The parade of storms continues. The strong storm system moving out of the Southern Rockies into the Central and Southern Plains this evening will make its way to the Upper Midwest by Friday morning. Another strong storm system will be moving over Oregon/Northern California by Saturday morning – ending up near the Four Corners by Sunday morning. The models seem to be in reasonably good agreement about the above solutions with the exception of the GFS seeming to be a little too fast with the next system in the late Saturday/Sunday time frame. I will accept a bit slower solution closer to the ECMWF.
This evening, waves of precipitation will continue to spread northeastward across the state as lifting increases with the approach of the Southern Rockies system. Forecast temperature profiles suggest that most of Oklahoma southeast of I-44 will be seeing a cold rain, with areas northwest of I-44 having a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow. Areas northwest of a line from Sayre to Watonga to Bartlesville are likely to see the most snow, with accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible by Thursday morning. In addition, we will be increasing the chance of thunderstorms starting at Midnight in Southwest Oklahoma, with the activity spreading eastward across the southern 2/3′s of the state through Thursday morning. Given impressive shear profiles and sufficient elevated instability, some of the storms may become severe over the southern third of the state with large hail the primary threat. In Okarche, it will be breezy tonight with a brisk southeast wind. Snow and sleet accumulation should be between one and three inches. The low temperature Thursday morning will be around 30 degrees.
The heaviest precipitation will have pushed east of I-35 between 9 am and Noon on Thursday. However, snow will still be falling in northwest and north central parts of the state. As surface low pressure passes over Okarche, winds will gradually veer to a westerly direction by 6 pm. There will be a chance of light snow through the evening hours, but significant accumulating snow should stay north of Okarche. The high will make it to the mid 40′s before the cold front passes around sunset.
Clearing skies, and north winds blowing off an expansive snow field will allow the temperature Friday morning to fall to around 19 degrees.
The high temperature on Friday will be near 37 degrees. A weak short wave trough embedded in the flow between the two stronger systems will be approaching the state late Friday and early Saturday. This will increase cloud cover, but no significant precipitation is expected.
The low Saturday morning will once again drop into the 20′s. For Okarche, the low should be around 25 degrees. The high on Saturday will be near 47 degrees with winds becoming light out of the south.
The low Sunday morning will be near 34 degrees. A cold front will be pushing into the northwest corner of Oklahoma by early afternoon. It currently appears that this front will be mostly dry as it moves through the state. Winds will be quite gusty ahead of the front out of the southwest and become strong out of the northwest behind the front. The high Sunday will be near 57 degrees.
Thursday morning: 30 / Rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow, thunderstorms
Thursday: 44 / Showers, snow showers
Friday morning: 19
Saturday morning: 25
Sunday morning: 34