Odds and ends…

November and December both came in well below normal with regard to precipitation.  This capped off a miserable last half of 2012 with only 4.72 inches of rain and melted snow.  Both months also came in warmer than normal, giving us 8 months of above normal temperatures last year.  Needless to say, drought is still listed as extreme.  There are quite a few areas of northern and western Oklahoma where drought is listed as exceptional – the highest level of drought.

Medium range forecast models are all in agreement that a fairly strong storm system will be moving through the southern Plains on Tuesday.  As is typical with systems four days out, there are differences in the timing, strength and location of key features which will ultimately decide what impacts the storm will have on Oklahoma.

Some solutions show decent rain chances over central and eastern parts of the state, with occasional runs indicating some snow chances over the northwest half of Oklahoma.  It will be something to keep an eye on as we approach the end of the weekend.
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One disturbing trend of the GFS is the forecast of extremely cold air making it into the northern Plains and upper Midwest about 9 or 10 days down the road.  Confidence in that solution is low at the current time, but if the model were to verify, minus 20 degree temperatures or colder could be lurking not too far to our north.  The solutions over the past 24 hours suggest mostly glancing blows of cold air for Oklahoma, but it doesn’t take much to get air masses that cold to move south.

I got up at 4 am on Thursday morning to take a peak at the Quadrantid meteor shower and wasn’t disappointed.  I saw about 15 meteors in 30 minutes including one of the best meteors I have ever seen.  Forming about 45 degrees up to the north and moving to about 20 degrees up to the northwest, the meteor developed a very wide trail.  Seeming to tumble, the meteor broke up four or five times, exploding into a fireball with each.  Toward the end, greens and reds were demonstrated.  It was an awesome sight.