Another college football Saturday, another chance at severe storms…

A very strong upper trough of low pressure will be shifting eastward through the western U.S. today.  By mid-afternoon, strong jet stream level winds will be overspreading the Plains.  In response to the upper system, a deep surface low pressure area will organize over Nebraska.  A strong cold front will be surging southward through the high Plains, and in typical fashion – a dryline will extend from the surface low – southward into western Texas.

Low level moisture has been increasing in the warm sector over the past 24 hours.  While the depth and quality of this moisture will come well short of what is usually needed for a major outbreak of severe thunderstorms, it will no doubt be sufficient for some.

The vertical wind shear profiles are forecast to be quite impressive, well above levels capable of generating and sustaining rotating updrafts.  Low level shear would support tornado production, if the quality of moisture was better.

As it is, thunderstorms are expected to form near and east of the dryline from Nebraska to western Oklahoma during the late afternoon hours.  Some of these storms will quickly become severe, producing large hail and damaging winds as they shift northeastward.  An isolated tornado occurrence is not out of the question.

Most of the severe events are expected to be marginal, however, there will be a few significant events / winds over 70 mph and hail to golfball size /.

The cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma by daybreak Sunday, and spread across the state during the day.  By Sunday night, temperatures in the Okarche area should drop into the upper 20′s.

Ewoldt House of Horror / Warm Weather…

The 3rd Annual Ewoldt House of Horror went off without a hitch last night.  In the end, the weather couldn’t have been better.  Seven to 10 days ago, it appeared that we would be playing around with a couple of weather systems that could have presented us with cool and wet conditions.  We should have known better in a year where we have the chance to be the driest on record, precipitation was not very likely.  So, we had light winds, clear skies, and temperatures that fell into the 50′s by showtime. We had a record 17 people in costume, and while we don’t exactly count our guests, we likely had a record number of them too.  Shoving us over was a last batch of Kingfisher High School students that came through last.

Now it’s time to tear it all down and start to winterize the backyard.  Tear down is always easier than building, and it will all be tucked away by this evening.  By Noon today, you already couldn’t tell that a haunted house was in place 12 hours earlier.  Clean up is being made easy by very nice weather, in fact, almost too nice as it is getting warm in the building.  Summer like conditions that returned to Oklahoma in October are making an appearance here in early November and it looks like we will flirt with record high temperatures today and tomorrow.  A couple of weak cold fronts will start making their way through this weekend and next week, but these are only expected to bring our temperatures back to near normal with little or no precipitation.