Hurricane Isaac – 6 pm – Tuesday, August 28

Isaac was named a hurricane by the National Hurricane Center at 11:20 am this morning… probably about 3 hours later than the upgrade should have been.  It currently is located about 15 miles south southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River and moving to the northwest at about 8 mph.

Max winds are now 80 mph and the central pressure has dropped to 970 mb. 

There have been no changes to the watches or warnings and the system seems to still be having problems with dry air entrainment.  Otherwise, given the low pressure, one would expect this hurricane to have winds near 100 mph.  There have been platforms in the area and other buoys that have been reporting gusts to well over 90 mph.

Track guidance continues to be widespread ranging from central Arkansas to central Oklahoma during the 72 hour range.  Isaac is a large hurricane with effects spreading outward several hundred miles from the center.  Recent tornado warnings have been in effect for portions of the western Florida Panhandle in association with meso-cyclones embedded in rainbands. 
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Everyone from the western Florida Panhandle to Arkansas and Oklahoma… eastern Texas and Louisiana should maintain steady updates on the progress of Isaac.  Flooding rains and tornadoes will be possible for the next several days.

Still Tropical Storm Isaac – 10:45 am – Tuesday, August 28

We will start with the current situation.  The isolated occurrences of data that supported Isaac becoming a hurricane this morning were not sufficient given the overall situation for the National Hurricane Center to upgrade the system.  Overall, winds are considered to be near 70 mph with a system that continues to get disrupted by various things – mainly dry air that gets entrained into the system destroying attempts at a solid inner core.  Fair enough, while it looks like there may have been a spot or two of sustained hurricane force winds this morning, the overall impression is still that Isaac is just a very large, and very strong tropical storm.  With a slower forward speed than this morning, it appears the storm has about 12 to 18 hours of possible strengthening before landfall.  During that time, it is still likely that Isaac will reach minimal hurricane strength.

The track forecast has been shifted slightly to the west, and that seems reasonable given the last hour of trend on radar.  It also falls toward an unexpected move by morning guidance which starts taking the system farther west again.  In some cases, almost back in line with the thinking of yesterday where south central Louisiana will come under the gun. 

Watch and warning changes with the latest NHC advisory include: The hurricane warning has been replaced with a tropical storm warning from the Mississippi/Alabama border eastward to Destin, Florida.  Also… the tropical storm warning has been discontinued east of Destin.
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All other previous watches and warnings remain in effect.

One curious thing about the morning guidance is that many solutions have shifted the track back into Oklahoma at the 96 hour mark.  It should be noted that a lot of these models have also picked up on the current westward move by Isaac during the last few hours.  Now we have a broad area from Texas and Oklahoma eastward through Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana where people should pay attention to the progress of Isaac.  Landfalling tropical systems will often weaken considerably with regard to wind, but are still capable of producing flooding rainfall and tornadoes.

Tropical Storm/Hurricane? Isaac – 8:30 am – Tuesday, August 28

Various data is likely being evaluated at the National Hurricane Center, but it appears that a couple hours of strengthening have taken Isaac to hurricane strength.  Some air recon data indicates surface winds near 81 mph.  In addition, a 53 ft tall platform about 90 miles to the northeast of the center has sustained winds at 68 mph.  The radar presentation has improved with a nearly completely closed and constricting eye Connection between complexities due to stress, poor communication or other concerns. order cheap levitra As far as the effects are concerned, this drug is fairly useful because it is too good. cheap cialis buy generic levitra Sometimes, men can be referred to 25mg or 10mg or sometimes may increase the dose to Kamagra 100mg or you can also decrease the sex drive in women such as mood changes and self-esteem. Brands like Fertility Blend offer cialis viagra online specialized formulations to improve sperm count. wall.  The last reported central pressure was down to 976 mb.  This is in line with some category 2 hurricanes.  With Isaac, the wind has had a hard time catching up to the pressure.  However, given the appearance and observations, it looks like Isaac may have finally fought the odds and reached low end category 1.  Now we wait for the next update from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Isaac – 5 am – Tuesday, August 28

It’s hard to believe this morning that we are not calling it Hurricane Isaac.  Centered about 125 miles south southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, Tropical Storm Isaac has sustained winds of 70 mph.  The central pressure has fallen to 977 mb.  While there have been westward wobbles, the motion is generally northwest at about 12 mph. 

There are a good number of possibilities as to why Isaac is not a hurricane yet.  It has had trouble maintaining a strong, well defined inner core.  This may be due to dry air entrainment, or possibly the fact that the storm is very large and hasn’t been able to constrict.  For whatever the reason, environmental conditions still favor some strengthening.  Outflow is good, sea surface temperatures are warm and the storm should become a hurricane during the next 12 hours.  Of course, I’ve said that numerous times over the last couple of days.

Isaac is a very large storm with effects that extend very far from the center.  For that reason, there are a number of watches and warnings:

A hurricane warning:
From east of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border… including Metropolitan New Orleans… Lake Pontchartrain… and Lake Maurepas.

A hurricane watch:
From Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana.

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From the Alabama/Florida border to the Aucilla River… and from Morgan City to Cameron, Louisiana.

A tropical storm watch:
From east of High Island, Texas to just west of Cameron, Louisiana.

One strong outer rain band is making its way across Plaquemines Parish at this time, and there has been a significant increase in wind at buoy sites near the mouth of the Mississippi River during the last few hours.  Conditions in the warning area will be deteriorating during the next few hours and preparations to protect life and property should be completed.

Intensity and track guidance has pretty much all come in line over the last 24 hours.  Isaac should make landfall around 4 pm this afternoon near Pilottown, or somewhere in Plaquemines Parish with hurricane winds of around 90 mph.  It’s important not to focus on the spot of landfall as this is a very large storm with far reaching effects.  After landfall, the storm will start to weaken, but still be capable of producing flooding rainfall and tornadoes as it tracks toward Arkansas.