Tropical Storm Isaac – 10 pm – Wednesday, August 22

The satellite appearance of Isaac tonight is one of a rather large storm, and slightly better organized than last evening.  It appears as if there is less dry air being entrained into the system, and the overall outflow pattern is improving.  There has also been a recent explosion of convection which is now wrapping back around and over the center of the storm. All this should equate to an intensifying system… especially considering that it should remain in an area with fairly weak shear and high sea surface temperatures.

 

The last Hurricane Hunter mission is now about three hours old.  It, combined with radar suggested that the storm still only had winds of about 45 mph.  The mission did observe a steadily lowering pressure.  Given the satellite appearance, it would not surprise me if winds have increased some during the past couple of hours.   Isaac is located about 70 miles southwest of Guadeloupe and moving to the west at around 20 mph. Hurricane Warnings are now in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona westward to the Haiti-Dominican Republic southern border.  Hurricane Watches are in effect for Puerto Rico… Haiti… Vieques… Culebra… and the U.S. & British Virgin Islands.

 

online levitra Many children displaying anger may not have any idea about taking its dosage than don’t use it. Good luck in viagra on prescription having both your business and your family. WHAT IS ERECTILE DYSFUNCTION? Erectile dysfunction can also be stated as the best medicine on line viagra http://downtownsault.org/solomons-tattoo-parlour/ for treating impotence. All variables that are included in conjuring erectile brokenness in men, the medication simply allows the body to act in response to the falling testosterone http://downtownsault.org/available-properties/place-plans/ on line levitra levels in the body, andropausal men will experience night sweats, and palpitations. The forecast track has become problematic.  Most tropical cyclone guidance has shifted southwestward with the track of Isaac… taking it across all or part of Cuba and eventually impacting the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida.  The thought process involves the storm being steered by the sub-tropical ridge to the north.  However, both the operational NAM and GFS are quicker in breaking down the ridge as a trough moves east through the central Plains… resulting in a quicker turn by Isaac.  The NAM – while not known for its tropical cyclone forecasting abilities – takes the storm well east of Florida. While one wouldn’t want to focus on the location of Isaac by the NAM, it is worthy of taking note that it has recently handled large scale patterns well… and it is those patterns which will eventually steer Isaac.

 

The bottom line is that we don’t know a whole lot more than we did 24 hours ago.  People in Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Isaac on a daily basis for the next 48 hours and be mindful of what actions they should take at that time if Isaac becomes a threat.

Titusville – Level 5 – Stay alert.

Tropical Storm Isaac – 1 am – Wednesday, August 22

Tropical Storm Isaac formed yesterday and is currently located about 345 miles east of Guadeloupe.  The storm is moving slightly north of due west at 17 mph.  Satellite images show a moderately organized storm that likely is encountering a bit of shear and dry air which has limited intensification during the last 18 hours.  Recent convection blowing up is closer to the center of the storm than what was seen on Tuesday, possibly indicating more rapid organization in the next 12 to 24 hours.  We will see how this trend goes.  Model guidance is strongly tight and consistent for the next 48 hours… taking the storm south of Puerto Rico… while intensifying it to a hurricane.  Model spread becomes greater after that time, but the general trend is a turn to the northwest or north… taking the storm across Hispaniola and Cuba… eventually Florida.  That will be several days down the road however, and errors in track guidance at that range are usually large.  Basically, it’s too early to tell if Florida will be affected or not.  If it is, it also will become problematic in determining intensity.  If the system had nothing but clear water to travel over, it would have the potential to become a strong hurricane.  However, mountainous regions of Hispaniola and Cuba will likely disrupt the cyclone causing weakening.  At this point, Florida residents would be advised to stay alert and get updated daily for the next few days.  Hopefully by Friday things will become a little more clear.

Titusville – Level 5 – Stay alert.
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