This morning… a powerful upper level storm system is located over New Mexico and Colorado. This system will move very rapidly east northeastward toward the Midwest this afternoon and evening.
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In response… a very deep surface low pressure area has developed over western Kansas overnight. This low will move to southeast Iowa by Midnight.
This system – typical of one seen in early Spring – will bring a variety of weather to the Plains, Midwest, and Mississippi Valley.
Surface winds are already increasing in western Texas and New Mexico with gusts to over 50 MPH already noted. A surge of wind with blowing dust will push through western Texas and into western Oklahoma this afternoon. Gusts on the order of 60-70 MPH look likely. Along with the high winds and dry conditions will come extreme fire danger.
As the system starts to move by, a cold front – bringing strong northwest winds will sweep southeastward across the state. Initially, there will be winds gusting to between 50 and 60 MPH associated with this front before they start to quickly settle down around Midnight. This front will be pushing into the Okarche area between 4 and 6 P.M.
In the warm sector… and increase in low level moisture over the Mississippi Valley – combined with the strength of the system and strong deep layer shear – will result in thunderstorms forming by mid-afternoon. These will quickly become severe over Arkansas before spreading/developing east and northeast. A southward progression of development is also likely into Louisiana and Mississippi. These storms will be capable of all facets of severe weather including the chance at strong tornadoes.
On the cold side of things, snow is possible in portions of eastern Nebraska and Iowa – extending northward through the Dakotas and Minnesota. It doesn’t appear that extreme amounts are likely, but winds will be quite gusty which will create near winter storm conditions in those areas.
For Oklahoma… this is going to be an extreme wind producer – but that’s about it. There will be a time this afternoon where fire danger will be extremely high in southwest Oklahoma – possibly extending into the central part of the state. The dangerous fire levels should be confined to Texas.
The thunderstorms will miss us to the east… but this is potentially a dangerous setup for the Mississippi Valley where fast moving supercells – some after dark – will have the capability of producing dangerous tornadoes.
Batten down the hatches! The next 18 hours are going to be a weather observers dream!