Well, over the last few weeks I’ve made some long reaching stabs at low possibility events such as snow in November and a minor tornado threat in December. Neither one of these “unofficial” predictions panned out. However, it now appears that we may have a winter event taking aim on the state that we can grab a hold of.
An early Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Oklahoma panhandle and five northwest Oklahoma Counties. The watch extends into Kansas and the Texas panhandle. Model trends over the last 24 to 36 hours indicate that the threat of accumulating snowfall may edge southeast of this area.
The system we are watching is currently centered about 100 to 200 miles southwest of San Diego. Model runs over the past several days have been taking this system generally east northeastward across southern New Mexico – before ejecting it northeast toward southwest Kansas. Most recent data indicates that the system may very well take a track much farther south – driving the compact / but strong / system into northwest Texas before turning northeast toward central and northern Oklahoma. The path of this system will be critical in forecasting areas which may see heavy snow.
It appears that this will be a very wet system. Widespread precipitation will begin in southwest Oklahoma during the early morning hours on Monday /19th/ – with much heavier rain and thunderstorms spreading northeast across the state during the afternoon and evening. Where the air mass is sufficiently cold – rain will change to snow in the northwest and panhandle. A very heavy, wet snow is likely to last through most of the daylight hours on Tuesday /20th/. While amounts will be lighter… snow could last until the evening hours in central and northern Oklahoma.
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The surface reflection of this storm will be a tight low pressure area which will track along or just north of the Red River. The pressure gradient behind the low will be tight enough to generate gusty north winds of at least 20 to 30 MPH. While this is well short of a technical “blizzard” – driving conditions may come close to impossible in areas that see the heaviest snow.
Given the forecast track uncertainties – will not get too aggressive in bringing heavy snow accumulations into central Oklahoma. However, it does appear that a good chunk of northwest Oklahoma and the panhandle will see enough snow to cause considerable problems.