Severe weather potential / Thursday, May 19

A significant severe weather event is possible on Thursday, May 19.

A strong mid-level jet will begin to make an impact on the plains states, nosing toward northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska by late in the afternoon.  A deep surface low will be found over east central Colorado with a warm front from the low extending east northeastward to the Iowa/Missouri border.  A strong dry line will extend eastward into northwest Kansas and then southward through western Oklahoma and Texas.

The atmosphere should be quite unstable in the warm sector and shear profiles will support rotating storms with a strong low level jet forecast to extend from south central Oklahoma to central Nebraska and southwest South Dakota.

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Most parameters in this area suggest the potential for rotating, supercell storms which will have the capability to produce all facets of severe weather.  Storms south of the Kansas border should be more isolated and accordingly, produce overall less numbers of severe weather events – still, some could be significant.

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