SEVERECAST DAY 60 – 7 a.m., THURSDAY, APRIL 29

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN OKLAHOMA…

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S… WITH SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE PLAINS.  LATEST NAM SUGGESTS THAT 983 MB SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE IN WESTERN KANSAS.  STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

BY AFTERNOON… A DRY LINE WILL START TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING QUITE UNSTABLE.  DESPITE THIS… FORCING FROM ANY MECHANISM SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  COMBINED WITH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND THE CHANCES OF STORM INITIATION LOOK VERY LOW.  STILL – THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AT A STORM BEING ABLE TO FORM ALONG THE DRY LINE.  IF THIS BECOMES MORE LIKELY… A RISK WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED LATER TODAY.  STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MINIMIZED BY FAIRLY HIGH TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS – HIGHER CLOUD BASES.

ON THIS DATE IN 1954… A LONG TRACK TORNADO FORMED IN THE ANTELOPE HILLS IN NORTHERN ROGER MILLS COUNTY.  IT TRACKED FOR 33 MILES ACROSS PORTIONS OF ROGER MILLS, ELLIS AND DEWEY COUNTIES… STAYING IN RURAL AREAS.  FIVE FARMS WERE HIT SOUTH OF VICI, DESTROYING BARNS AND OUTBUILDINGS.  PAVEMENT WAS RIPPED OFF THE ROAD 17 MILES SOUTH OF ARNETT.  LATER, A SLOW MOVING TORNADO WAS REPORTED TO HAVE TRACKED ONLY FOUR MILES IN 15 MINUTES SOUTHEAST OF LOYAL IN KINGFISHER COUNTY.  AFFECTING FOUR FARMS… TWO PEOPLE WERE INJURED.

Active weather pattern produces at least 72 tornadoes over six days…

The weather pattern became an active one from April 20 to April 25 and produced at least 72 tornadoes from Colorado to North Carolina.

On the 20th… two tornadoes occurred in the Texas panhandle.  One of which looked rather large but got rated EF0 because it didn’t hit anything.

On the 21st… a weak tornado occurred in Colorado.

On the 22nd… many tornadoes occurred in Colorado, Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma.  The lone tornado in Oklahoma was a weak event in Beaver County.  Most of the tornadoes stayed in rural areas and none were rated greater than EF1.  It’s possible that as many as 27 tornadoes occurred.

On the 23rd… there may have been as many as 11 tornadoes scattered across Colorado, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas.

On the 24th… a large outbreak of more significant tornadoes occurred.  The strongest tornadoes were in Mississippi and Alabama where two EF4’s were surveyed.  The long track supercell that produced one of the violent tornadoes (hitting Yazoo City and responsible for 10 deaths) was alive for more than seven hours.  Here is a radar composite of the storm:  http://www.okweatherwatch.com/2010/00.jpg

I’ve also listed a summary of the 29 tornadoes which occurred on the 24th here:  http://www.okweatherwatch.com/2010/042410sum.htm

On the 25th… two tornadoes occurred in South Carolina and North Carolina.  The South Carolina storm was rated EF2.

One of two tornadoes I observed southeast of Groom, TX on April 22nd.

One of two tornadoes I observed southeast of Groom, TX on April 22nd.

SEVERECAST DAY 59 – 7 a.m., WEDNESDAY, APRIL 28

…DRY, WINDY DAY EXPECTED IN OKLAHOMA…

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS A LARGE AND STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CARVES ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN U.S.

A VERY DEEP AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER STORM.  WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE WILL BE QUITE GUSTY.  GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DESPITE THE EVOLUTION OF A DRY LINE WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE… THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL CAPPED AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST APPROACHES… SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY AFTER SUNSET IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY.  FRIDAY… THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE.

ON THIS DATE IN 1960… TORNADOES BEGAN FORMING JUST SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  ONE STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO NEARLY 10 MILES LONG WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE OF OKLAHOMA CITY.  DAMAGE WAS WORST IN THE AREA AROUND SW 59 AND PENNSYLVANIA.  1500 HOMES WERE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  THE STORM FIRST AFFECTED THE “WEATHER BUREAU” AT WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT KNOCKING GLASS OUT OF THE TOWER.  THE WEATHER OFFICE RECORDED 86 MPH WINDS.  NOBODY WAS KILLED IN THE EVENT… HOWEVER, 51 PEOPLE WERE INJURED.  IT WAS SAID THAT THERE WERE A LOT OF “CLOSE CALLS”.

SEVERECAST DAY 58 – 7 a.m., TUESDAY, APRIL 27

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN OKLAHOMA…

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS TODAY AS A DEEP TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST AND A STRONG UPPER JET SEGMENT SURGES ONSHORE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE… HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA… RETURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTH OVER MOST OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

ON THIS DATE IN 1942… A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM DROVE A STRONG TORNADO THROUGH THE CITY OF PRYOR IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  MANY VICTIMS IN THE BUSINESS DISTRICT WERE CAUGHT IN THEIR VEHICLES.  INITIAL REPORTS STATED THE FATALITIES WERE AS HIGH AS 100… HOWEVER THE FINAL TOLL WAS 52.  THIS STILL MAKES THIS TORNADO THE 4TH MOST DEADLY IN OKLAHOMA HISTORY.  ABOUT 350 PEOPLE WERE INJURED.

SEVERECAST DAY 57 – 7 a.m., MONDAY, APRIL 26

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON MONDAY IN OKLAHOMA…

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS… SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE… A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY.  THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN DRY AND QUITE STABLE… PREVENTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ON THIS DATE IN 1991… A LARGE OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES OCCURRED ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IN OKLAHOMA… THE WORST SEVERE WEATHER WAS CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE.  THE LARGEST AND LIKELY THE MOST INTENSE TORNADO OF THE DAY WAS A 66 MILE LONG – ONE MILE WIDE – F4 – THAT TRACKED FROM JUST EAST OF GARBER TO JUST NORTHWEST OF PAWHUSKA.  THE TORNADO MANAGED TO REMAIN IN RURAL AREAS DURING ITS LIFE AND DESTROYED ONLY A HANDFUL OF STRUCTURES.

SEVERECAST DAY 56 – 7 a.m., SUNDAY, APRIL 25

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY…

A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF ILLINOIS INTO OHIO DURING THE PERIOD.  WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A SMALL BUT FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHEAST COLORADO/WESTERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE….WINDS WILL REMAIN DRY AND OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST ON NORTH WINDS.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS.

ON THIS DATE IN 1957… LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED SEVERAL TORNADOES OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  SHORTLY AFTER 10 P.M… A TORNADO FORMED OVER HOLDENVILLE.  THE TORNADO HAS BEEN RATED F2 AND CAUSED MOST OF ITS DAMAGE NEAR MAIN AND BROADWAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CITY.  THE PATH LENGTH WAS ABOUT TWO MILES LONG.

SEVERECAST DAY 54 – 7 a.m., FRIDAY, APRIL 23

…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA…

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.  A VERY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET IS FLOWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE… A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FOUND OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  MORNING NAM SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING A GREAT DEPTH OF MOISTURE WHICH IS REFLECTED IN SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 60 DEGREES F TO THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOST OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE HAS CLEAR SKIES.  THIS CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON… ALLOWING STRONG SURFACE HEATING TO COMMENCE… AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SEVERAL GROUPS OF MODEL DATA POINT TOWARD STORMS FORMING 50 TO 75 MILES WEST OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER AND QUICKLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE STORMS ARE IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE STATE… THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS – POSSIBLY SUPERCELL IN NATURE – WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE POSSIBLE.

ON THIS DATE IN 1926… A LATE AFTERNOON TORNADO TRAVELED 20 MILES IN AN EAST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION FROM FILLMORE TO SOUTHWEST OF CANEY IN JOHNSTON AND ATOKA COUNTIES.  50 HOMES WERE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  FOUR PEOPLE WERE KILLED AND 15 INJURED.  A COUPLE OF THE INJURED PEOPLE WERE CARRIED OVER ¼ OF A MILE BY THE TORNADO.

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SEVERECAST DAY 53 – MIDNIGHT, THURSDAY, APRIL 22

…SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK – INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN PANHANDLE…

A LARGE AND DEEP AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT THE START OF THE DAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.  IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM… STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE LEADING EDGE OF DIFFLUENT 50 TO 60 KNOT 500 MB WINDS WILL BE REACHING WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY PEAK HEATING.

AT THE SURFACE…DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.  A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND A DRY LINE WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS SHOWN A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO KANSAS.  SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REACH INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S EAST OF THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  STRONGER STORMS MAY BE OCCURRING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER KANSAS.  DURING THE MORNING HOURS… THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS… THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  WE SHOULD END UP WITH AN AXIS OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MLCAPE JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

BY MID AFTERNOON… WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND MOVE OFF OF THE DRY LINE IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL… DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.  GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR… ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM… A FEW OF THESE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG.

BY SUNSET… NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE DRY LINE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING WITH APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.  THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

ON THIS DATE IN 1997… LARGE HAIL FELL IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND IDABEL AND BROKEN ARROW.  NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANT EVENTS… BUT IT WAS THE THIRD APRIL 22ND IN A ROW WHERE SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRED IN THE STATE.  AFTER TAKING OFF A YEAR IN 1998… ANOTHER THREE YEAR STRETCH OCCURRED FROM 1999 TO 2001 MAKING THE DATE A SEVERE WEATHER DAY IN THE STATE FOR SIX OUT OF SEVEN YEARS.

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SEVERECAST DAY 52 – MIDNIGHT, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 21

…FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING…

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OUT OF CALIFORNIA TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEVADA BETWEEN DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.  WHILE NOT EXTREMELY STRONG… A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE… HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  PRESSURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE – SUB 1000 MB – TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST WINDS AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS/TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES.  COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES… THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  ALL MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY IN THE THREAT AREA.  SHORT RANGE MODELS TEND TO PLACE THIS FEATURE CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE – WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS POINT MORE TOWARD THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.  EITHER WAY… THE ATMOSPHERE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE… THE CAP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL WEST FLOW AROUND 30 KTS – WILL PRODUCE A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR RAPID STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THAT THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT LIKELY BE ALL THAT WARM AND LEND TO LOWER TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS – LOWER LCL’S.  TORNADO PRODUCTION IS STILL LIKELY GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON STORM INTERACTION WITH EXISTING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES.

THERE MAY BE A DISTINCT NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WHICH COULD FALL VERY CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.  FOR NOW… WILL INCLUDE THAT AREA IN A REGION OF POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS WITH A LESSER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

ON THIS DATE IN 1996… A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3’S OF OKLAHOMA.  THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER REPORT WAS JUST AFTER 1 P.M. WITH NEARLY CONTINUOUS SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  IN ALL… OVER 200 REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER WERE LOGGED IN THE STATE.  THERE WERE A HANDFUL OF SMALL TORNADOES… BUT LARGE HAIL WAS THE BIGGEST THREAT THAT DAY.  SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL FELL NEAR NEWKIRK.  BASEBALL SIZE HAIL FELL NEAR STILLWATER, TIPTON, PERRY, COMANCHE, WAURIKA, JOY, BETHANY AND THACKERVILLE.

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SEVERECAST DAY 51a – 9:31 p.m., TUESDAY, APRIL 20

…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REDUCED FOR REMAINDER OF NIGHT…

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND SHORT RANGE/HIGH-RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT WEAK SHORT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES.  MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE NOW ON CURRENT CONVECTION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THANKS TO SOME DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR… SOME OF THESE STORMS WERE ABLE TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE AT LEAST ONE TORNADO JUST WEST OF AMARILLO.

SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT… HOWEVER… THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STABLE TO PREVENT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.  STILL— A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN THE PANHANDLE.

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