Latest water vapor imagery shows strong vort center moving east into northwest Texas. RUC shows this feature tracking east and then east northeast during the next 12 hours toward east central Oklahoma. This seems a reasonable scenario and we may finally have a handle on this system – just as it comes to an end.
Strong lifting north and northeast of the vort center is expanding/organizing and increasing the intensity of precipitation across Oklahoma. SPC meso-analysis shows that critical thickness values have FINALLY lowered sufficiently for all snow northwest of a line from Waurika to Purcell to Chandler to Miami. This line will continue to advance east through the afternoon. It appears that the center of the strongest lifting/wrap-around duration will extend from Cordell to Oklahoma City to Jay. In this area… an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow is likely… 4 to 5 would not be out of the question… especially from just west of the OKC metro area to the Arkansas border.
Radar returns in precipitation southeast of the snow area continue to suggest sleet… and there is likely a band of freezing rain across portions of southeast Oklahoma. For now… about the 8 southeastern most counties of Oklahoma continue above freezing… but should be able to switch to a winter mix before the event comes to an end this evening.
At the current time in Okarche… moderate snow and flowing electrical power. It’s a beautiful day…
The forecast remains very complex even at this stage. A solid base of ice, sleet or snow has been put down across almost all of Oklahoma with the exception of the southeast. Additional freezing or frozen precipitation will have no problems accumulating.
Some moderate to heavy rainfall is occurring in the southeast… but most of it is southeast of the surface freezing line. In fact, some temperatures near 40 degrees reside along the Red River. A very slow southeast advance of the freezing temperatures will result in some freezing rain evolving during the next 24 hours… some of the ice accumulation may be significant.
Most snowfall has ended in the Panhandle and far northwest… however, indications of increased lift are showing up from central Oklahoma northward. More than a couple of inches of snow will be possible the remainder of the night in north central and northeast Oklahoma. Central sections will see a mix of light freezing rain, sleet and snow. Accumulations in central Oklahoma should generally be light / less than an inch / but may serve to amplify problems that already exist.
Models are in general agreement that strong vort center over New Mexico/west Texas will move east-northeast during the next 18 hours very close to the Red River. This will result in additional precipitation forming in Texas and spreading northeast through much of eastern Oklahoma. Latest SREF and NAM signal accumulating snowfall farther west than the GFS. NAM solution brings snowfall as far west as Lawton and Kingfisher… while GFS keeps main show to the east of I-35. All models are similar on precipitation amounts and type with snow being the primary mode. With the existing snow/ice pack… accumulations on the order of 1 to 4 inches should be easily attainable.