At 72 hours in advance… it remains difficult to say just where the most serious winter weather will occur… but trends continue to point toward a large part of Oklahoma seeing some bad conditions develop during the day Thursday.
After a breezy day today… things will turn out quite mild on Tuesday and most of Wednesday before a cold front slips southward across the state Wednesday night. By Thursday morning… widespread precipitation will break out across much of the southern Plains as lifting associated with a storm system approaches from the southwest.
There may be a small zone where freezing rain occurs – with the best guess from northwest Texas to central and east central Oklahoma. But as the day progresses, a transition to snow is likely for about the northwest 2/3′s of the state. The earliest change over to snow will take place in the northwest. Some parts of Oklahoma stand to see a lot of snow. Many model solutions over the past 24 hours suggest that the greatest snowfall will be about 75 to 100 miles wide and extend east/west along and north of I-40.
The storm will be a wet one… with the possibility of more than a couple of inches of melt down or liquid precipitation. This means in areas where most of it falls as snow… there is a likelihood that as much as a foot of snow may fall. It should be a heavy wet snow… but still capable of drifting given the 30 to 40 mph winds that will come along with it.
The National Weather Service in Norman has already pulled the trigger on a Winter Storm Watch for the entire county warning area starting Thursday morning. This means that the word will be out to everyone by the 5 p.m. news. I had hoped to have my food shopping done before the masses heard the news… I think I’ll head out this afternoon….