Snowcast Event 4 – Update 2 – Noon, Fri, Jan 1

Little change in thinking of how this system will evolve… but have shifted the area of interest into north central and northeast Oklahoma.  Unfortunately, this affects some significant population – lowering totals in the OKC metro area and increasing them in the Tulsa metro area.  Confidence in either the path or the snow amounts remains low with this forecast and it will probably be another 24 hours before things come into focus.

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Snowcast Event 4 – Update 1 – Midnight, Fri, Jan 1

Operational GFS and NAM solutions have considerable differences this evening with wave that is due in on Sunday, January 3rd.  NAM has been progressively stronger and further southwest with the area of lift… bringing accumulating snowfall into the main body of Oklahoma.  GFS was weaker in the most recent solution… but tend to buy into the stronger NAM solution and expect a fairly tight vort center being able to evolve after topping the ridge and moving southeast across the Plains / southwest of New England mid level cyclone.  Degree of strengthening with the system to affect Oklahoma may largely be determined by the lifting that is spun out to the west of the New England storm.

Despite system being fast moving and fairly limited moisturewise… don’t see much reason to believe that the strength will be much different than the one that affected us yesterday – which produced a narrow but significant area of short-lived snowfall.  Two to three inches seem a reasonable forecast (higher amounts in a small path)… but the area affected will likely have to be changed as the event approaches with a very distinct line of snow/no-snow.

For this initial forecast… will bring the area of most significant snowfall directly across the center part of state.  Given the speed of the system… will also go on the low end of NAM suggested snowfall totals which peak near six inches.

Overall… this is a very low confidence forecast and likely to change with regard to path and intensity.

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