Category Archives: Upcoming Severe Weather Events

May 1, 2020 – 11z / Chase Outlook

A relatively dry air mass is found over the Southern Plains this morning, with dry air pushing well south across the gulf behind the last cold front.  A border to border lee side surface trough is located just west of Oklahoma.  It should become quite hot close to this feature later this afternoon.  Temperatures approaching 100 degrees will be found in the panhandles and far western Oklahoma.  Strong heating and a lift from a subtle mid level wave approaching from the Southern Rockies may be sufficient to produce a few thunderstorms over the eastern panhandles and far west Oklahoma.  If storms form, some gusty winds will be possible, but no organized severe weather is expected.

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Severe thunderstorms possible Friday 1/10/20

An unusually moist and warm low level air mass will continue to spread northward into Oklahoma in advance of an approaching powerful upper storm.

In this, Europe is one of the leading causes of fires in commercial buildings. pharmacy on line viagra European doctors have side effects of levitra used healing mineral water extensively. Regular intake of such diet makes remarkable improvement in semen volume. cialis generic cheapest These ways order cheap viagra may include the use of prescriptive drugs and other similar products and services. By sunrise, thunderstorms will begin to form over southwest and west central sections of the state.  These will move quickly northeastward with a threat of hail as the atmosphere becomes marginally unstable and strong lifting overspreads the area.  Storms over northwest Oklahoma will likely be elevated to the northwest of a surface front, but storms near and southeast of the front will have the potential to produce a brief tornado.  These storms will likely be moving into southern Kansas by Noon.

Around that time, new thunderstorm development will be occurring near and east of I-35.  These storms will become rooted in an atmosphere considerably more unstable with strong low and deep layer shear.  All severe weather hazards will be possible, including the threat of a strong tornado or two, as the storms move east and northeastward through the afternoon and evening hours.  The greatest severe weather threat will be east of a Tulsa to Ada line, and the storms should continue near the Arkansas border until close to Midnight.

Severe Thunderstorm Risk increases for the state

A strong upper trough will be moving eastward across the western U.S. and the Plains over the next several days.  Low end severe risks will begin to affect parts of the state as early as today… Sunday / 29th… and continue through Thursday / 3rd.  The greatest risk for severe weather / including tornadoes / will come later in the week.

SUNDAY, APRIL 29:

We have just started the transition toward a severe weather producing pattern.  Low level moisture will be increasing on strengthening south winds, but will be rather shallow.  Still, with afternoon heating and steepening mid-level lapse rates, the atmosphere should become sufficiently unstable near a dryline which will extend from near the Kansas/Colorado border southward to eastern New Mexico – to support vigorous updrafts.  Late afternoon thunderstorm development is expected.  A few of these storms will be capable of producing marginally severe hail and gusty winds as they move toward western Kansas, Oklahoma/Texas panhandles, and southwest Texas.

MONDAY, APRIL 30:

The primary risk on Monday will come near a complex area of surface boundaries in Nebraska and adjacent areas of Wyoming and Colorado.  There will be a risk / conditional on storms forming / farther south, along and east of a dryline, through western Kansas.. the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles.. far western Oklahoma and west Texas.  With a further increase in low level moisture, the atmosphere across this area will once again become unstable during the afternoon.  Strong capping will likely only be breached in a couple of areas, resulting in rapid thunderstorm development.  It is nearly impossible to nail down where these isolated storms will occur, but if they do form, they will be capable of instances of large hail and damaging winds.

TUESDAY, MAY 1:

 

If a person is diagnosed with high level of lipids (blood fats) cialis online usa like cholesterol, then it can cause erectile dysfunction in the long run. The learners permit or the driving licenses need to levitra online usa be swallowed, gulped or need to be placed under the tongue to dissolve, and are easily absorbed by the body. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. 59(12):2249-55, 2011 purchase levitra online check out for source now 3. There are many reasons why it is cheaper to order Propecia online buy cialis online http://frankkrauseautomotive.com/testimonial/very-pleased/ in generic form. A long wave trough over the western U.S. will begin to send out waves across the Plains on Tuesday.  Surface low pressure will be located over eastern Colorado and strong southerly winds will be transporting richer low level moisture northward into the Central Plains and Midwest.  The most logical area for severe weather will be near the front/dryline intersection over northern Kansas… extending northeastward into adjacent areas of Nebraska/Iowa/Missouri.  In these areas, all facets of severe weather will be possible.  Farther south, convergence along the dryline combined with afternoon heating and subtle lifting from passing waves may be sufficient for for isolated storm development as far south as western Oklahoma.  This risk is conditional on storms forming.  If they do, instability and deep layer shear would support supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds.  While very low… the tornado threat should be considered non-zero.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 2:

 

… Significant severe weather event possible across Oklahoma on Wednesday…

The ingredients for a long duration, widespread, and potentially significant severe weather episode appear to be coming together for Wednesday.  A strong upper trough will begin moving out of the Southwest U.S. and across the Southern Rockies.  A strong mid-level jet will lie atop a moist warm sector, with embedded waves providing lifting for thunderstorm development.  At the surface, deep low pressure will be found over eastern Colorado.  A front from northwest Kansas to southern Iowa will be a focus for widespread thunderstorm development.  A dryline extending from north central Kansas to southwest Texas will also provide a focus for thunderstorm development, but this activity will be less widespread.  The forecast is a complex one.  Not only will the typical boundaries found with systems like this provide focus for thunderstorm development, but there are indications that scattered to widespread thunderstorm development may be free roaming across the broad warm sector.  While nearly impossible to determine where these storms may occur, they will no doubt play a part in the evolution of events throughout the afternoon and evening.  In addition, there are signs that the dryline may see repeated storm initiation throughout the afternoon and evening, resulting in several waves of storms.  Ultimately, there are wide ranging scenarios that could play out on Wednesday.  If thunderstorm coverage is widespread, we may see the atmosphere worked over enough to limit the number of significant events.  Given the degree of instability and low and deep layer shear, it is also a real possibility that widespread storms just add to the number of significant events.  People living across Oklahoma should pay particular attention to weather forecasts, watches and warnings.  They should also understand that just because a wave of storms has passed, doesn’t mean that more won’t be coming.  Severe thunderstorm activity is likely to last well into the nighttime hours.

THURSDAY, MAY 3:

The trough responsible for several days of severe weather across the Plains will become positive tilted and will be moving across the area for a final day of severe weather on Thursday.  Surface low pressure will be located north of Oklahoma and a trailing dryline will only have reached central Oklahoma.  The warm sector will be characterized by having rich low level moisture and strong wind fields at all levels.  However, extensive thunderstorm activity over the previous 24 hours is likely to limit lapse rates/instability.  Thunderstorm activity is likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the day, and will continue throughout the afternoon and evening.  Large hail will become less of a threat.  The widespread nature of storms is likely to limit the tornado threat, but a few cannot be ruled out.  The primary risk this day will be damaging winds and flooding.

 

Severe storms possible statewide today (March 28, 2017)

…Tornado risk highest over southwest Oklahoma…

Satellite loops this morning show a powerful storm system moving across Arizona and New Mexico.  Strong lifting associated with this storm will be spreading over the Southern Plains this afternoon and evening.

The surface weather map shows a warm front extending west to east across Texas, from just north of Abilene to just south of Dallas.  Very moist air resides south of the front.  This boundary should lift northward to at least the Red River this afternoon, and may lie across southern Oklahoma by late afternoon or early evening.

Thunderstorms are expected to form in a strong warm air advection regime across western Oklahoma during the morning hours.  This activity will spread north and northeast through the afternoon.  Some potential exists for these storms to produce marginally severe hail.
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By mid-afternoon, more vigorous thunderstorm activity is expected to form along and either side of the warm front over northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma.  The atmosphere in this region will be quite moist and unstable, and forecast wind profiles show large amounts of low and deep layer shear, especially near the front.  Storms forming here will have the potential to rapidly attain supercell characteristics with all severe weather hazards possible.  A strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

As thunderstorms grow upscale in coverage by evening / spreading into central and eastern Oklahoma, the main threat will transition to wind damage and hail.  While the concern for tornadoes will be highest across southwest Oklahoma, the tornado risk in Oklahoma City is not zero.

In addition to the severe weather risk, torrential rainfall from repeated storms is likely to cause some localized areas of flooding.

People across the state / especially southwest and south central Oklahoma / should review safety rules and be prepared to act should warnings be issued.

Severe thunderstorms likely Sunday – March 26

The weather will undergo some dramatic changes today.  We are starting cool – in some cases, cold – across Oklahoma at daybreak this Sunday morning.  The low temperature in Okarche was 38 degrees.  A small but strong storm system is moving quickly toward the state.  In response, surface low pressure will be organizing over the panhandles and move into northwest Oklahoma by late afternoon.  Warm and moist air / currently residing across central Texas / will move rapidly northward through the afternoon hours.  By mid-afternoon, the atmosphere over central and eastern Oklahoma will become quite unstable.  A dryline will begin pushing eastward across western Oklahoma, and this feature will provide a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon.  Given the degree of instability and very strong wind shear profiles, the storms will have the potential to organize into supercells with all facets of severe weather possible.  At the current time, very large hail will be the primary threat.  However, if sufficient low level moisture returns into the state, there will also be the threat of a few tornadoes.  Two areas appear most capable of seeing a tornado threat during the late afternoon and evening.  One is across northwest Oklahoma – near the warm front just to the east of the surface low.  The second area is from roughly the Oklahoma City area southward along and either side of the I-35 corridor where moisture is likely to be deeper.

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Don’t let the calm and cool weather this morning cause you to drop your guard.  Stay tuned to weather information through the day and be prepared to act should severe thunderstorms approach.

Powerful storm system bringing unusual weather to Christmas day…

A very strong storm system will be moving northeastward from the Rockies toward the Northern Plains today.  In advance of this system, a very warm and moist air mass has moved northward across Oklahoma.  The Midnight temperature Christmas morning in Okarche was 56 degrees.  The temperature rose to 65 degrees by 6 am – and the dew point was also 65 degrees!  Strong south and southeast winds have been gusting to between 40 and 55 mph across the state.  These are conditions that one would expect to find in the middle of May!

The most significant impacts from this storm system are going to remain north of the state.  A deep cyclone will be tracking from western Nebraska to southeast North Dakota, bringing full scale blizzard conditions to the Dakotas.  As the warm and moist air moves northward, there will be a risk of severe thunderstorms over Kansas and Nebraska.

In Oklahoma, there will also be a low end risk of severe weather this afternoon.  A dryline will be moving rapidly eastward across  the state today.  A narrow line of thunderstorms is expected to form along this feature which will be approaching the Okarche area between 1 and 2 pm.  There will be sufficient moisture and low level shear to support a couple of instances of damaging winds with the storms.  In addition, any sustained area of rotation along the line would be capable of producing a brief tornado.  Even outside of the thunderstorm line, winds will be quite strong across the state today with gusts to 50 mph not uncommon.  As dry air moves into western Oklahoma behind the dryline, fire danger will increase to near extreme levels.

For the record…

There are certain people who face a number of experienced and fully trainedcounsellors working in this india online viagra sector and this is an opportunity for you to speak, feel and communicate with your partner, share your energies and understand them better. Some people take it too lightly and do not consider it as drastic physical change, but people who suffer from ED and normally all cases are treatable. generic cialis on line In these conditions, it is thought that the intestines become inflamed due to the body’s immune reaction against myelin( protective sheath around nerves). generic sildenafil canada Models in this division will also follow the same path as a regular model in the terms of finding an agency, building levitra prescription on line a portfolio and comp card. Thunder has not been recorded in Okarche on Christmas day before.

The record high low temperature of 50 degrees would be set given the low so far this morning of 56 degrees.  However, temperatures by Midnight will have fallen into the 40’s which will keep that from occurring.

Also, the record high of 74 degrees is not likely to be reached as temperatures with extensive cloud cover will top out around 70 before precipitation arrives.

All in all, it’s going to be a Christmas to remember weatherwise.

Severe Thunderstorms Possible Tuesday, October 4, 2016

A strong upper storm system will be moving across the Plains late Monday and Tuesday.  Surface low pressure will be organizing over northwest Oklahoma, and a dryline will extend southward across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas.  Early morning thunderstorms are expected to form from western Kansas to western Texas as low level moisture increases on gusty south winds.  These storms may be marginally severe as they spread eastward to central Kansas and central Oklahoma by late morning.  Behind the initial wave of storms, the atmosphere is expected to become quite unstable by mid to late afternoon.  Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop near the surface front and dryline.  Given the strength of deep layer shear and instability, these storms will have the potential to rapidly become severe.  Supercells with damaging winds and large hail will be possible.  In addition, conditions through the lowest levels of the atmosphere are expected to become favorable for the development of a few tornadoes.  The most likely area to experience severe weather will extend from northeast Kansas to north central Oklahoma.  More isolated storms will be possible farther to the south to southwest Oklahoma.

There are some uncertainties with regard to how widespread severe weather will be in Oklahoma, but the potential does exist for a few significant severe weather events.  Residents are advised to review severe weather safety rules and stay aware through the afternoon and evening hours.
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One of the largest tornado outbreaks of record (26 tornadoes) in Oklahoma occurred on October 4, 1998:

http://www.weather.gov/oun/events-19981004-tornadotable

Severe Thunderstorm Chances / Hurricane Matthew

Published: 9 AM – Friday – September 30, 2016

The weather should become much more interesting during the first week of October.

… Severe Thunderstorm Risk for Tuesday / October 4th …

A strong upper system will be making its way across the Western U.S. and the Rockies by late weekend and early next week.  Model data has been remarkably consistent with regard to this system, but there have been day to day changes in the exact track, timing and strength.  Despite this, confidence is high that as strong southwest flow spreads across the Plains, deep low pressure will organize over the Central and Northern High Plains by Tuesday morning.   A narrow strip of moist and unstable air will spread northward in advance of a cold front and dryline.  Thunderstorms are expected to develop near these surface features by early to mid afternoon.  Given the degree of instability and shear, severe storms will be possible.  The most likely area to see severe weather lies across western Kansas, western Oklahoma, and parts of northwest Texas.  It is too early to determine storm mode and resulting hazards.

… Hurricane Matthew …

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Not a radar that I get to use very often.  The eye of Matthew is clearly visible from weather radar at Curacao.  Curacao is a small island country just north of Venezuela.
Not a radar that I get to use very often. The eye of Matthew is clearly visible from weather radar at Curacao. Curacao is a small island country just north of Venezuela.

 

Severe Thunderstorms Possible Monday

A dryline will once again be located from western Kansas to western Texas this afternoon.  The atmosphere east of the dryline is expected to become very unstable, with moderately strong low and deep layer shear.  The forecast today is made somewhat complicated by an outflow boundary that will extend from the eastern Texas Panhandle to near the Red River.  Ultimately, this boundary’s position this afternoon will determine the area of greatest risk.  At the current time, it is expected that the boundary will intersect the dryline somewhere over the Texas Panhandle near I-40.
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Rapid thunderstorm development will begin near the dryline by late afternoon.  Given the strength of the instability and shear, a quick evolution to supercell storms is likely.  There may very well be several mergers and splitting storms resulting in messy modes of storms, but very large hail and a few tornadoes are still likely.  In Oklahoma, the greatest risk will be southwest of a line from Woodward to Frederick.

Severe thunderstorms possible Saturday

The weather pattern will be transitioning into one favorable for daily severe thunderstorms across the Plains starting on Saturday and lasting most of the upcoming week.

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As the upper ridge shifts east, taking up an axis from central Texas to the Northern Plains Saturday afternoon, southwest flow will begin to increase over the High Plains.  Low pressure will deepen over eastern Colorado and a dryline will extend from the low to western Kansas, and western Texas.  Low level moisture will be quickly returning northward to the east of the dryline over the next 24 hours.  With afternoon heating on Saturday, the atmosphere will become very unstable over western Kansas and Texas and adjacent areas of Oklahoma.  The combination of heating, dryline convergence and subtle lifting with increasing flow aloft should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms to form by mid to late afternoon.  Forecast soundings show sufficient shear for a few supercell storms to evolve out of sustained vigorous convection and very large hail will be possible.  In addition, forecast hodographs show very large low level loops which could support the development of a couple of tornadoes.  While the central and eastern part of the Oklahoma Panhandle stands the greatest risk of seeing severe storms, some of the activity may move into northwest or west central Oklahoma by evening as well.