A strong upper trough will be moving eastward across the western U.S. and the Plains over the next several days. Low end severe risks will begin to affect parts of the state as early as today… Sunday / 29th… and continue through Thursday / 3rd. The greatest risk for severe weather / including tornadoes / will come later in the week.
SUNDAY, APRIL 29:
We have just started the transition toward a severe weather producing pattern. Low level moisture will be increasing on strengthening south winds, but will be rather shallow. Still, with afternoon heating and steepening mid-level lapse rates, the atmosphere should become sufficiently unstable near a dryline which will extend from near the Kansas/Colorado border southward to eastern New Mexico – to support vigorous updrafts. Late afternoon thunderstorm development is expected. A few of these storms will be capable of producing marginally severe hail and gusty winds as they move toward western Kansas, Oklahoma/Texas panhandles, and southwest Texas.
MONDAY, APRIL 30:
The primary risk on Monday will come near a complex area of surface boundaries in Nebraska and adjacent areas of Wyoming and Colorado. There will be a risk / conditional on storms forming / farther south, along and east of a dryline, through western Kansas.. the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles.. far western Oklahoma and west Texas. With a further increase in low level moisture, the atmosphere across this area will once again become unstable during the afternoon. Strong capping will likely only be breached in a couple of areas, resulting in rapid thunderstorm development. It is nearly impossible to nail down where these isolated storms will occur, but if they do form, they will be capable of instances of large hail and damaging winds.
TUESDAY, MAY 1:
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WEDNESDAY, MAY 2:
… Significant severe weather event possible across Oklahoma on Wednesday…
The ingredients for a long duration, widespread, and potentially significant severe weather episode appear to be coming together for Wednesday. A strong upper trough will begin moving out of the Southwest U.S. and across the Southern Rockies. A strong mid-level jet will lie atop a moist warm sector, with embedded waves providing lifting for thunderstorm development. At the surface, deep low pressure will be found over eastern Colorado. A front from northwest Kansas to southern Iowa will be a focus for widespread thunderstorm development. A dryline extending from north central Kansas to southwest Texas will also provide a focus for thunderstorm development, but this activity will be less widespread. The forecast is a complex one. Not only will the typical boundaries found with systems like this provide focus for thunderstorm development, but there are indications that scattered to widespread thunderstorm development may be free roaming across the broad warm sector. While nearly impossible to determine where these storms may occur, they will no doubt play a part in the evolution of events throughout the afternoon and evening. In addition, there are signs that the dryline may see repeated storm initiation throughout the afternoon and evening, resulting in several waves of storms. Ultimately, there are wide ranging scenarios that could play out on Wednesday. If thunderstorm coverage is widespread, we may see the atmosphere worked over enough to limit the number of significant events. Given the degree of instability and low and deep layer shear, it is also a real possibility that widespread storms just add to the number of significant events. People living across Oklahoma should pay particular attention to weather forecasts, watches and warnings. They should also understand that just because a wave of storms has passed, doesn’t mean that more won’t be coming. Severe thunderstorm activity is likely to last well into the nighttime hours.
THURSDAY, MAY 3:
The trough responsible for several days of severe weather across the Plains will become positive tilted and will be moving across the area for a final day of severe weather on Thursday. Surface low pressure will be located north of Oklahoma and a trailing dryline will only have reached central Oklahoma. The warm sector will be characterized by having rich low level moisture and strong wind fields at all levels. However, extensive thunderstorm activity over the previous 24 hours is likely to limit lapse rates/instability. Thunderstorm activity is likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the day, and will continue throughout the afternoon and evening. Large hail will become less of a threat. The widespread nature of storms is likely to limit the tornado threat, but a few cannot be ruled out. The primary risk this day will be damaging winds and flooding.