10:30 am – Dec 30: A deep upper trough extends from Colorado to the central of Baja California. As this feature swings east, a closed low is expected to develop over northern Mexico over the next 24 hours. The low will begin to eject northeastward toward eastern Oklahoma by Friday morning.
The surface reflection of this system will be a deep low pressure area that moves from the Texas coast – almost due northward toward the eastern part of the state. An anomalously high amount of moisture with the system will be wrapping northwestward from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the state. Heavy amounts of precipitation will be possible over much of central and eastern Oklahoma as widespread rain and thunderstorms move north across the Red River Thursday afternoon. While the air located across the state, and any that will move into the state is not unusually cold, it does appear sufficiently cold enough to produce a considerable amount of winter precipitation across central and western Oklahoma. Precipitation may initially be in the form of freezing rain and sleet on Thursday, before transitioning to mostly snow after sunset – lasting into Friday. The precipitation should begin to end near the Red River around sunrise on Friday – and around Noon near the Kansas border.
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This has the potential to be a major winter storm with significant impacts to travel and power. As the deep surface low moves north, a strong pressure gradient will result in north winds of 20-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph. These gusty winds could result in power outages with only 1/4-1/2″ of freezing rain. While we may not see blizzard conditions by definition – a window of very heavy snow with 40 mph gusts could cause nearly impossible travel conditions over parts of central and western Oklahoma.