Category Archives: Weather Outlook for Okarche, Oklahoma

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Cold start to the week / Becoming warmer with high fire danger and thunderstorm chances…

Attention is now turning to a strong upper system diving south along the west coast this Sunday evening.  By Monday afternoon, a closed low will be near Reno, Nevada.  Upper flow will be increasing out of the southwest across the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday as the system moves to western Utah.  By daybreak on Wednesday, a lead wave is forecast to eject northeast across Colorado, and this is a scenario that has been supported in several model runs.  The main portion of the upper low will still be back near Las Vegas, Nevada with a strong jet segment extending from the Southwest U.S. to the Central and Southern High Plains.  Recent model trends have been stronger with the overall storm system, and have been trending ever so slightly slower with its movement into the Plains.  This could eventually have an impact on the weather in the state on Wednesday.

Pressures will be falling over the High Plains on Monday and winds across Oklahoma will be increasing out of the south.  By Tuesday, deep low pressure will be found near the northeast corner of Colorado, and winds will increase further.  Increasing moisture and lift from the approaching system on Wednesday will allow for morning showers and thunderstorms to form across the main body of Oklahoma.  By late morning and early afternoon, a dryline will be moving east toward the I-35 corridor.  This boundary will provide a focus for the redevelopment of afternoon and evening thunderstorms – some of which would be severe.  Currently, it appears that the threat would be over the eastern half of the state, but a slightly slower moving system would introduce a threat for severe thunderstorms over central Oklahoma as well.  A cold front will follow, reaching the eastern part of the state by Midnight on Thursday.

…Hazards…

Monday… Fire danger will become elevated across western Oklahoma and the Panhandle during the afternoon.  South winds will gust to between 35 and 40 mph over the Panhandle and northwest.
Tuesday… High fire danger will exist west of the dryline over the Panhandle.  South winds will gust to between 40 and 50 mph over western Oklahoma and the Panhandle.
Wednesday… Very high to extreme fire danger is likely west of a dryline that will be pushing into central Oklahoma during the afternoon.  Morning thunderstorms will have the potential to produce large hail across southern and eastern Oklahoma.  By afternoon, a supercell thunderstorm risk will develop along and east of the dryline with all facets of severe weather possible.  Southwest winds will gust to between 40 and 50 mph across the state to the west of the dryline.  By late afternoon and evening, strong northwest winds will be developing behind a cold front that will start to move southeast across the state.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 32 Observed: 33
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light, becoming south 10 to 20 mph.

Monday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 68 Observed: 71
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Tuesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy.
Low: 46 Observed: 47
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Southeast 10 to 20 mph, becoming south 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Tuesday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy.
High: 70 Observed: 73
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Wednesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible.
Low: 57 Observed: 61
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 40%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 30%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 5%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Wednesday (Noon to Midnight): Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible.
High: 80 Observed: 84
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 5%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph, becoming southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph, becoming northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Strong storm departs the area / Rain chances increase over the weekend…

A strong upper system over the middle part of the country will begin to weaken as it moves toward the Great Lakes on Thursday.  Meanwhile, another strong wave will be diving southeast across the Pacific Northwest.  Winds will still be gusty from the north across Oklahoma Thursday morning, but they will diminish throughout the day becoming near calm across central Oklahoma by sunset.

By Friday evening, flow across the Central and Southern Plains will begin to back to southwesterly as a trough takes shape over the Rockies.  Low pressure will deepen over the Texas Panhandle and a front will begin to slip south across northwest Oklahoma.  There is a model consensus to develop a few showers and thunderstorms across the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma late in the day Friday, with the activity tracking into north central Oklahoma during the early morning hours on Saturday.

The cold front is expected to move slowly south, reaching south central and east central Oklahoma by Saturday evening.  Stronger lift will be approaching the state and rain will be forming in upslope flow over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.  Thunderstorms will likely be forming from northeast Oklahoma to north Texas – just to the north of the surface boundary.

A steady uptick in precipitation coverage is expected through Sunday morning with most areas of the state seeing at least some rain.  Some places may see a good rain.  Rain will be coming to an end late Sunday morning and the day should turn out pretty nice with light winds by late afternoon and evening.

…Hazards…

Thursday… Strong winds across the state will gust to between 30 and 40 mph, subsiding by late morning.
Friday… Increasing south winds and low humidity will elevate fire danger across western Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening.
Saturday… No significant weather related hazards expected.
Sunday… No significant weather related hazards expected.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy.
Low: 37 Observed: 35
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Thursday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 59 Observed: 58
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: North winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, becoming light.

Friday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy.
Low: 31 Observed: 32
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light, becoming south 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Friday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy.
High: 67 Observed: 69
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Saturday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible.
Low: 43 Observed: 49
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 5%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, becoming northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Saturday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible.
High: 70 Observed: 72
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 40%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Sunday morning (Midnight to Noon): Cloudy with rain and thunderstorms likely.
Low: 34 Observed: 34
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 90%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 70%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 40%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 10%
Observed: 0.19
Winds: North 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph, becoming north 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday (Noon to Midnight): Partly cloudy.
High: 58 Observed: 58
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: North 10 to 20 mph, becoming light.

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Warmer – very windy – very high fire danger through mid-week…

A trough over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley’s will move quickly eastward over the next 24 hours.  Behind it, a high pressure ridge over the Rockies will be shifting toward the Plains.  The ridge will begin to flatten from late Monday into early Tuesday as a strong upper system moves onshore over the Western U.S.  A strong jet segment rotating around the base of the western system will begin to nose across the Central and Southern Plains by Midnight on Wednesday.  During the day Wednesday, a closed low will eject northeastward from Colorado toward the Midwest.

One more cold night is expected with low temperatures Monday morning dropping below freezing in scattered areas across the entire state, but most likely across north central, northeast and east central Oklahoma.  The high pressure responsible for the cold air will quickly begin to move east Monday morning, and pressures will begin falling over the High Plains.  A tightening pressure gradient will result in increasing southwest winds throughout the day.

By Tuesday, deep low pressure will be organizing near the Nebraska Panhandle resulting in a very tight pressure gradient across the state.  It will be quite windy with much warmer air spreading into Oklahoma.  Portions of western Oklahoma may see temperatures approach 90 degrees.

Wednesday will be windy and warm as the deep surface cyclone (sub-990mb) begins to move eastward along the Nebraska/Kansas border.  A dryline will be advancing quickly eastward across the state and is likely to become a focus for thunderstorm development – but not until it reaches the Oklahoma/Arkansas border. By mid afternoon, a strong cold front will begin to surge southeastward across the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma.  The front will be in the Okarche area around 5 pm with winds shifting to the northwest and much colder air behind it.  After a couple of warm days, temperatures will be back into the low 40′s by Midnight on Thursday.

…Hazards…

* Daily blog entries will be posted to address dangerous fire weather conditions Monday-Wednesday.

Monday… (fire danger) Increasing southwest winds will gusts to between 35 and 45 mph across the northwest 2/3′s of the state – excluding the Panhandle.
Tuesday… (fire danger) Southwest winds will be gusting to between 40 and 50 mph statewide.
Wednesday… (fire danger) Southwest winds will gust to between 35 and 45 mph statewide.  By afternoon, winds will shift to the northwest behind a cold front and winds will gust between 40 and 50 mph behind the front through the early evening hours.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 30 Observed: 30
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 5 to 10 mph, becoming southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Monday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 67 Observed: 69
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Tuesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 47 Observed: 49
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

Tuesday (Noon to Midnight): Partly cloudy.
High: 80 Observed: 78
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

Wednesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy.
Low: 55 Observed: 58
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Wednesday (Noon to Midnight): Partly cloudy.
High: 74 Observed: 78
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: West 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph, becoming northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Much colder by weekend…

One upper low will be departing the Great Lakes area on Thursday.  By Friday morning, another strong upper wave will be moving southeast from the Central Rockies.  This wave will evolve into a closed low over Illinois on Saturday and move east.  In its wake, northwest flow will be found across the Plains as an upper ridge builds over the Rockies.

At the surface, a weak front will meander near the Red River through Friday morning.  Temperatures across the state will remain mild Thursday and Thursday evening.  By late afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and north of the front over southern Oklahoma.

During the early morning hours of Friday, a much stronger cold front will be moving quickly south across the state.  Fairly widespread rain will develop behind the front statewide Friday morning and afternoon, but precipitation amounts are not expected to be significant.

What will be significant will be the cold air that settles into the state by Saturday morning.  Freezing temperatures are expected across northern and western Oklahoma.

A harder freeze is possible across northwest and western Oklahoma on Sunday morning, and near freezing temperatures will be possible statewide.  By afternoon, pressure falls over the High Plains will result in increasing south winds across the western part of the state.

…Hazards…

Thursday… No significant weather related hazards expected.
Friday… No significant weather related hazards expected.
Saturday… Freezing temperatures are likely across northern and western Oklahoma during the morning hours.
Sunday… Freezing temperatures are likely statewide during the morning hours with a hard freeze possible across northern and western Oklahoma.  By afternoon, low humidity and gusty south winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions across far western Oklahoma and the Panhandle.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy with showers possible.
Low: 42 Observed: 42
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 5%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: East 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday (Noon to Midnight): Partly cloudy with showers possible.
High: 64 Observed: 69
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 5%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Southeast 5 to 15 mph.

Friday morning (Midnight to Noon): Cloudy with rain possible.
Low: 41 Observed: 40
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 40%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Friday (Noon to Midnight): Cloudy with rain possible.
High: 44 Observed: 53
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Saturday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 28 Observed: 27
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: North 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 55 Observed: 55
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: North 10 to 20 mph, becoming light.

Sunday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 29 Observed: 25
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light.

Sunday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 56 Observed: 53
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light, becoming south 5 to 15 mph.

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Above to much above average temperatures / Little or no precipitation through Wednesday…

A strong jet segment is pushing across the west coast toward the Great Basin this evening.  These strong winds are in association with an upper wave that will be moving across the Plains on Tuesday.  On Wednesday, an upper low will be located over the Dakotas with a broad trough over the central part of the country.

At the surface, pressures will be falling across the Plains on Monday and winds will become warm out of the southwest across the state.  A cold front will be moving over Oklahoma early on Tuesday with winds shifting to the northwest, but temperatures remaining slightly above seasonal average.  Another front will move across the state on Wednesday, stalling by evening near the Red River.  A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across far southeast Oklahoma, but most of the state will remain dry through mid-week.

…Hazards…

Monday… Warm temperatures, dry air and moderate southwest winds will result in high fire danger across the far western part of the state – including the Panhandle.
Tuesday… Above average temperatures, dry air and gusty northwest winds will result in elevated to very high fire danger across the northwest 2/3′s of the state.  Possible exceptions are areas that saw significant recent rain.  Northwest winds will be strong during the day with gusts to 40 mph or stronger common.
Wednesday… Fire danger will once again be elevated as humidity drops to between 15 and 25 mph across the state and afternoon winds are gusty from the northwest.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 46 Observed: 44
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light, becoming south 10 to 20 mph.

Monday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 81 Observed: 83
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Tuesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 51 Observed: 51
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Southwest 10 to 20 mph, becoming northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Tuesday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 70 Observed: 70
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph, becoming light.

Wednesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 41 Observed: 34
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday (Noon to Midnight): Partly cloudy.
High: 65 Observed: 65
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 5 to 10 mph, becoming north 10 to 20 mph, becoming east 5 to 10 mph.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Mild temperatures / Precipitation chances increase again…

A large upper low over northern Mexico will wander northeastward across central Texas by Friday evening.  The wave may be able to maintain a closed circulation as it lifts across central and eastern Oklahoma on Saturday.  By Saturday afternoon and evening, a fast, eastward moving, compact upper low will be over central New Mexico and will begin to kick the older Southern Plains / then weakening / system east.  The approaching low will be tracking along the Red River Valley on Sunday.

With the position of the upper low and high precipitable water values flowing northwest into the state from the Lower Mississippi Valley, showers and thunderstorms will remain a good bet across southern and eastern Oklahoma through Friday evening.  The models begin to diverge at that point with the suite of NAM products moving widespread precipitation back into central Oklahoma, while the 00z GFS and ECMWF are much less bullish on precipitation amounts.  Still, all models do show at least some precipitation spreading back across the main body of the state by late Friday and early Saturday.  All models show precipitation waning by Saturday evening, and this seems reasonable given the belief that the original upper wave will be in the process of moving east.

Precipitation associated with the faster moving upper system on Sunday is not expected to be all that heavy or widespread.  Still, there will be sufficient instability for a few thunderstorms and some could produce hail.

…Hazards…

Thursday… Patchy dense fog will be possible across western Oklahoma through the morning hours.  A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect for McCurtain County of southeast Oklahoma until mid-afternoon.  
Friday… No significant weather related hazards expected.
Saturday… No significant weather related hazards expected.
Sunday… Thunderstorms across central and eastern Oklahoma may produce marginally severe hail during the morning and afternoon.  Should sufficient instability develop, an isolated weak tornado cannot be ruled out.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy.
Low: 49 Observed: 48
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northeast 5 to 10 mph, becoming northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Thursday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy.
High: 67 Observed: 68
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Friday morning (Midnight to Noon): Cloudy with showers possible.
Low: 48 Observed: 39
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 50%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 30%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 5%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northeast 10 to 20 mph.

Friday (Noon to Midnight): Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
High: 55 Observed: 69
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 80%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 50%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 2%
Observed: 0.06
Winds: Northeast 10 to 20 mph, becoming east 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday morning (Midnight to Noon): Cloudy with showers possible.
Low: 51 Observed: 52
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 30%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.02
Winds: Southeast 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy.
High: 69 Observed: 63
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Southeast 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Low: 51 Observed: 50
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 90%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 50%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 5%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.17
Winds: Southeast 10 to 15 mph, becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday (Noon to Midnight): Partly cloudy.
High: 65 Observed: 66
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 2%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northeast 10 to 15 mph, becoming light.

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Above average temperatures / Showers and thunderstorms likely…

Model initialization this evening shows a strong upper wave approaching the California coast with an associated 110 knot H5 jet max.  The flow is beginning to buckle and a closed low will be carved out over southern California by Monday evening.  Southwest flow is increasing over the Central and Southern Plains and this trend will continue through Tuesday as the upper low moves to just south of the Texas Big Bend.  Mid level flow will be backing across Oklahoma as the upper system moves slowly toward central Texas by Wednesday evening.

A weaker lead wave is currently moving across southern California and western Arizona.  This feature will be moving northeast toward the Central Plains on Monday.  As this occurs, a deep surface low is forecast to develop over southwest Nebraska.  A tight pressure gradient over the Central and Southern Plains will help to maintain strong south winds and increasing low level moisture.  By afternoon, a dryline will be found extending from the Nebraska surface low to far western Oklahoma.  East of the dryline, warm afternoon temperatures and increasing moisture will lead to the atmosphere becoming moderately unstable with a narrow band of MLCAPE on the order of 1000 to 1500 j/kg expected.  There are very few model signals of storms forming along the dryline, likely as a result of strong capping.  It does seem plausible that afternoon heating and dryline convergence could result in a couple of isolated storms at a resolution lower than the global models can grab hold of.  Should a storm form, deep layer shear would favor rotating updrafts with large hail and damaging winds possible.

The GFS is much more aggressive developing storms after dark on Monday from eastern Oklahoma to western and central Texas, with bands of storms spreading northward into Oklahoma during the morning hours on Tuesday.  There will be sufficient shear in place to allow for some of these storms to be severe with large hail the primary threat.  Otherwise, Tuesday will see the deepening of a surface low over west Texas, with a possible dryline surge northeastward toward the southwest part of the state.  A redevelopment of thunderstorms is likely across most of Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening with adequate shear and instability for severe weather.  With deeper moisture and strongly backed low level flow, a greater risk of tornadoes may occur on Tuesday.  One possible inhibiting factor is cool outflow from morning storms preventing sufficient instability for a severe threat.  Therefore, any severe threat on Tuesday is conditional on the atmosphere being able to destabilize behind early storms.

The upper low will meander slowly eastward across Texas on Wednesday and the heaviest of precipitation will be ending over eastern Oklahoma during the morning hours.  Still, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across the main body of the state on Wednesday with the highest chances near the Red River, decreasing considerably at the Kansas border.

A weak cold front will be moving across the state on Wednesday.  That combined with clouds and precipitation will result in the coolest day through mid-week.

…Hazards…

Monday… An isolated severe thunderstorm or two will be possible across western Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening.  Severe thunderstorms will also be possible during the afternoon and evening across eastern and southern Oklahoma.  The primary threat will be large hail, but damaging winds and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.  West of the dry line, critical fire weather conditions will develop over far western Oklahoma and the Panhandle.  Strong south winds will continue to blow across the state with 40+ mph gusts common.  While flooding is not expected to be a problem on Monday, storms that do form will contribute to rainfall totals that may lead to flooding on Tuesday and Wednesday across eastern Oklahoma..
Tuesday… Severe thunderstorms will be possible statewide with an early round over eastern and southern Oklahoma, and afternoon and evening risks across the main body of the state.  A heavy rain risk exists over southeast Oklahoma and localized flooding issues may develop.
Wednesday… Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the first half of the day over southeast Oklahoma.  Areas of east central and southeast Oklahoma will see three day rainfall totals range from 2 to 4 inches with some locations seeing 6+ inches.  Flooding will continue to be a concern over southeast sections of the state.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy with showers possible.
Low: 59 Observed: 59
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Monday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible.
High: 71 Observed: 65
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 2%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

Tuesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Low: 57 Observed: 52
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 100%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 100%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 70%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 20%
Observed: 0.47
Winds: Southeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Tuesday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible.
High: 63 Observed: 62
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Southeast 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Cloudy.
Low: 46 Observed: 45
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light, becoming north 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday (Noon to Midnight): Cloudy.
High: 63 Observed: 62
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Mild temperatures with a chance of a storm by Sunday…

Showers and a storm or two associated with a strong upper wave will be pushing east of Oklahoma not long after Midnight tonight.  In general, an upper ridge will be located over the Plains through the weekend.  However, several short wave troughs will be impacting the ridge from the west, or topping the ridge over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.  Bottom line, it won’t have complete control over the weather across the Plains.

A weak front with some gusty north winds behind it will move across Oklahoma tonight.  By Friday morning, south winds will return as a trough becomes established over the High Plains.  Another front will begin moving across the Panhandle late on Friday and should reach southeast Oklahoma before stalling Saturday afternoon.

A strong trough will be approaching the Southwest U.S. on Sunday.  Southwest flow will begin to spread across the Central and Southern Rockies.  As this occurs, an increasing low level jet will begin to transport moisture northward across the state.  The previously stalled frontal boundary will begin advancing north as a warm front.  During the early morning hours of Sunday, warm air advection is likely to generate a few showers and thunderstorms across the main body of the state, and this precipitation may linger to around the Noon hour.  By late afternoon and early evening, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near a dry line over the eastern panhandles and far western Oklahoma.  Any storms that do form will be diurnally driven and should weaken not long after sunset.

…Hazards…

Thursday… Gusty north winds and dry air will result in elevated fire weather conditions across the main body of Oklahoma.  
Friday… A critical fire weather day appears likely across the northwest half of the state as strong southwest winds develop and the low level atmosphere remains dry.  
Saturday… No significant weather related hazards expected.
Sunday… Strong south winds will gust to between 35 and 40 mph across most of the state.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy.
Low: 44 Observed: 43
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light, becoming northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Thursday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 64 Observed: 64
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph, becoming light.

Friday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy.
Low: 36 Observed: 37
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light, becoming south 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Friday (Noon to Midnight): Partly cloudy.
High: 73 Observed: 73
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 15 to 25 mph.

Saturday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy.
Low: 44 Observed: 36
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph, becoming northeast 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy.
High: 69 Observed: 72
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northeast 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy.
Low: 46 Observed: 47
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: East 5 to 10 mph, becoming south 15 to 25 mph.

Sunday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy.
High: 70 Observed: 72
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed:
Winds: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Showers and thunderstorms with severe weather possible late Monday into Tuesday morning…

A strong upper wave is moving across the Pacific Northwest this Sunday evening.  The feature will be moving southeast across Wyoming on Monday afternoon with an associated 80 knot H5 jet extending from southeast Washington to northern Colorado.  The wave will be moving across the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday, quickly exiting the area.  Behind it is another short wave trough that will be taking nearly the same path and will be approaching Oklahoma by late on Wednesday.

In advance of the lead wave, a plume of moist air with precipitable water values well over an inch will spread across Oklahoma beginning early on Monday. Meanwhile, arctic air will begin to move quickly southward across the Northern Plains and Midwest.  By late Monday afternoon, most all of Oklahoma will still be in the warm sector as low pressure organizes over southwest Kansas, providing a brief anchor for the western end of the cold front.  By evening, the front will begin to move quickly southeastward and lifting will begin to increase as the upper wave approaches.  Showers and thunderstorms should begin developing around or just after sunset from the eastern Texas Panhandle to southeast Kansas.  These storms will move quickly eastward across the state during the overnight hours, ending over southeast Oklahoma by Tuesday morning.

The main surge of arctic air will stay northeast of Oklahoma.  Still, cooler and breezy conditions are expected for the first half of Tuesday.  By Wednesday morning, south winds will be increasing and warmer air will spread across the state in advance of the next approaching wave.  While a shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out late on Wednesday, moisture will be lacking at that time and no organized area of precipitation is expected through Midnight on Thursday.

…Hazards…

Monday… While not a textbook setup, there will be sufficient moisture, lift, instability and shear for some of the thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday morning to become severe.  The primary threat will be large hail.
Tuesday… (See Monday) In addition… winds behind the cold front passing across the state will be strong out of the north with gusts from 35 to 45 mph possible.
Wednesday… No significant weather related hazards expected.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy.
Low: 39 Observed: 38
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light, becoming south 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Monday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
High: 73 Observed: 76
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 60%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 40%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 15%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 2%
Observed: 0.01
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Tuesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Low: 43 Observed: 38
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 60%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 40%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 15%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 2%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph, becoming north 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Tuesday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 58 Observed: 59
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: North 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph, becoming light.

Wednesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy.
Low:32 Observed: 36
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 5 to 10 mph, becoming south 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Wednesday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy.
High: 70 Observed: 69
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 30%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Dry with a warming trend through the weekend…

A deep upper trough is located over the Eastern U.S. this Wednesday evening.  In its wake, a strong wave is dropping southward across the Plains in north northwest flow.  This feature will move into the base of the long wave trough and leave northwest flow across the Plains on Friday.  Another couple of minor waves will pass before short wave ridging tries to build across the Central and Southern Plains on Saturday.  This will be short-lived as a trough moving onshore over the Western U.S. will move across the Central Plains on Sunday.

The atmosphere will be quite dry in the wake of the Eastern U.S. system.  The next front to move across will do so on Sunday.  By then, enough moisture return could lead to scattered showers over eastern Oklahoma.

…Hazards…

Thursday… No significant weather related hazards expected.
Friday… No significant weather related hazards expected.
Saturday… Gusty southwest winds and dry vegetation will lead to high fire danger across the Panhandle and at least northwest Oklahoma.  Elevated fire weather concerns may spread into central Oklahoma as well.  Southwest winds will gust to between 35 and 40 mph across the main body of the state during the late afternoon and evening.
Sunday… Southwest winds will gust to between 35 and 40 mph across the main body of the state during the morning hours.  By afternoon, 40 mph wind gusts from the north will be possible over the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy.
Low: 33 Observed: 27
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: North 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Thursday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 54 Observed: 49
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: North 10 to 20 mph, becoming light.

Friday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 29 Observed: 25
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 5 to 10 mph, becoming southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Friday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 61 Observed: 62
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Saturday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 33 Observed: 35
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 72 Observed: 76
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Sunday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy.
Low: 50 Observed: 50
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph, becoming northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Sunday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 75 Observed: 72
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northwest 10 to 20 mph.