…Cold start to the week / Becoming warmer with high fire danger and thunderstorm chances…
Attention is now turning to a strong upper system diving south along the west coast this Sunday evening. By Monday afternoon, a closed low will be near Reno, Nevada. Upper flow will be increasing out of the southwest across the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday as the system moves to western Utah. By daybreak on Wednesday, a lead wave is forecast to eject northeast across Colorado, and this is a scenario that has been supported in several model runs. The main portion of the upper low will still be back near Las Vegas, Nevada with a strong jet segment extending from the Southwest U.S. to the Central and Southern High Plains. Recent model trends have been stronger with the overall storm system, and have been trending ever so slightly slower with its movement into the Plains. This could eventually have an impact on the weather in the state on Wednesday.
Pressures will be falling over the High Plains on Monday and winds across Oklahoma will be increasing out of the south. By Tuesday, deep low pressure will be found near the northeast corner of Colorado, and winds will increase further. Increasing moisture and lift from the approaching system on Wednesday will allow for morning showers and thunderstorms to form across the main body of Oklahoma. By late morning and early afternoon, a dryline will be moving east toward the I-35 corridor. This boundary will provide a focus for the redevelopment of afternoon and evening thunderstorms – some of which would be severe. Currently, it appears that the threat would be over the eastern half of the state, but a slightly slower moving system would introduce a threat for severe thunderstorms over central Oklahoma as well. A cold front will follow, reaching the eastern part of the state by Midnight on Thursday.
…Hazards…
Monday… Fire danger will become elevated across western Oklahoma and the Panhandle during the afternoon. South winds will gust to between 35 and 40 mph over the Panhandle and northwest.
Tuesday… High fire danger will exist west of the dryline over the Panhandle. South winds will gust to between 40 and 50 mph over western Oklahoma and the Panhandle.
Wednesday… Very high to extreme fire danger is likely west of a dryline that will be pushing into central Oklahoma during the afternoon. Morning thunderstorms will have the potential to produce large hail across southern and eastern Oklahoma. By afternoon, a supercell thunderstorm risk will develop along and east of the dryline with all facets of severe weather possible. Southwest winds will gust to between 40 and 50 mph across the state to the west of the dryline. By late afternoon and evening, strong northwest winds will be developing behind a cold front that will start to move southeast across the state.
…Okarche Weather…
Monday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 32 Observed: 33
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light, becoming south 10 to 20 mph.
Monday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 68 Observed: 71
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Tuesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy.
Low: 46 Observed: 47
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Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Southeast 10 to 20 mph, becoming south 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Tuesday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy.
High: 70 Observed: 73
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Wednesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible.
Low: 57 Observed: 61
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 40%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 30%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 5%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
Wednesday (Noon to Midnight): Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible.
High: 80 Observed: 84
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 5%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph, becoming southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph, becoming northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.