Category Archives: National Weather Event (Past/Ongoing/Future)

Hurricane Maria

Wednesday, September 20, 2017 – 8 am:

…Maria located just southwest of San Juan…

…Maximum sustained winds 145 mph with a central minimum pressure of 927 mb…

…Many observed wind gusts in excess of 100 mph since landfall…

…Widespread reports of damage and requests for rescue across Puerto Rico…

Maria has weakened some with land interaction.  Further weakening is likely over the next several days as upper level conditions become less favorable.  Regardless, Maria will be a large and strong hurricane for the next five days as it tracks northward – near and just east of the Bahamas.

Wednesday, September 20, 2017 – 1 am:

…First devestating effects to Puerto Rico will begin soon…

…Intense outer band with observed gusts to over 135 mph is located between 30 and 40 miles from the coast…

…Hurricane Maria will be catastrophic for Puerto Rico with major wind damage, life-threatening storm surge, life-threatening flooding and landslides, and tornadoes…

…Storm has weakened slightly but remains a Category 5 with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph and a minimum central pressure of 910 mb…

…Earlier lowest pressure is 10th lowest on record for Atlantic basin…

A worse case scenario appears to be unfolding for those in Puerto Rico.  Maria has the potential to be the worst hurricane to strike the island in almost 90 years.   Time for any preparation has just about run out and people now should begin to shelter in place above the forecast storm surge of up to 9 feet.  During the after the storm, be aware of rising water and landslides.  Prepare mentally for a very long duration rescue and restore period.  Many places still don’t have power and running water because of Hurricane Irma.  Most won’t see a restore of these services until well into next year.

 

Tuesday, September 19, 2017 – 10 pm:

…Edge of intense inner eyewall about 12 miles off the south shore of St Croix…

…Maria remains an extremely dangerous, Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph and a minimum central pressure of 909 mb…

Winds on St Croix have been gusting to near 90 mph.  These are NOT associated with the intense inner eyewall.  Wind gusts in the inner core likely exceed 200 mph.  This is an extremely dangerous storm, capable of catastrophic damage.  The most intense part of the hurricane will skirt along the southern coast of St Croix over the next few hours.  Most of the island will see damaging winds, dangerous inland surge and flooding rainfall.

Maria is moving west northwest at around 10 mph.  This general motion is expected to continue through landfall on Puerto Rico.  On its expected course, the intense core will pass across southwestern portions of Vieques, and then strike Puerto Rico between Patillas and Punta Santiago.  People shouldn’t focus on the exact center, as hurricane force winds and dangerous storm surge cover an area 120 miles wide.

In addition to wind and surge, flooding rainfall, landslides and tornadoes will be a significant threat across Puerto Rico.

Dangerous hurricane conditions will be possible over eastern and northern sections of the Dominican Republic from late Wednesday until late Thursday.

Maria could still be a major hurricane when it passes near or east of the Turks and Caicos from late Thursday through late Friday.

Tuesday, September 19, 2017 – 4 pm:

…Extremely dangerous Mari continues to move toward St Croix and Puerto Rico…

…Still Category 5… pressure has fallen to 916 mb and winds have increased to 165 mph…

…There will be a narrow path / about 50 miles across / where catestrophic damage occurs with landfall…

…Dangerous conditions of wind, storm surge, flooding rainfall, and landslides will occur well outside the path of the center of the storm…

Tropical expert, David Gold, offered this historical information:

Barring unpredictable wobbles, the eye wall looks increasingly likely to make a direct strike on Puerto Rico’s southeast coast not far from Humacao or Palmas Del Mar. Since 1928, the last time that a severe hurricane hit PR (the 1928 storm is recorded as a Cat 5 with 140kt winds at landfall), there have been two other direct landfalls: one in 1932 (100 kt) and Hugo in 1989 (110kt) – the only major hurricane to hit PR in the modern era. If landfall does indeed occur, Maria will be by far and away the worst hurricane disaster in PR’s history. An eye wall replacement cycle is more likely to occur than not before landfall but even if this happens, it is unlikely that Maria will weaken significantly enough to avert disaster.

Tuesday, September 19, 2017 – 7 am:

…”Extreme damage and deaths” being reported from Dominica after direct hit by Category 5, Maria…

…After brief and slight weakening, storm is once again Category 5 with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph…

…St Croix, Vieques, and Puerto Rico next to see direct impact from major hurricane…

Forecast models are tightly clustered over the next 36 hours, and it appears that St Croix, Vieques, and Puerto Rico will be taking a direct hit from this major hurricane.   While it is possible that some slight weakening could occur by the time Maria reaches Puerto Rico, it will still likely be at least a Category 4 storm capable of catestrophic damage.

Hurricane Warnings:

Guadeloupe, Dominica, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat, U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

Hurricane Watch:

Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

 

Monday, September 18, 2017 – 10 pm:

…Extreme damage being reported on island of Dominica…

…Maria remains at Category 5 strength with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph and a central minimum pressure of 924 mb…

Monday, September 18, 2017 – 7 pm:

…Maria now catastrophic Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph…

It is really hard to find words to describe how rapid intensification of this storm has been.  About 26 hours ago, it was just labled a hurricane with 75 mph winds.  This is very close to – if it has not become – the fastest intensifying hurricane of record.

The storm is very close to the island of Dominica and is likely to cause extreme devastation there tonight.

Monday, September 18, 2017 – 4 pm:

…Maria has gone from Tropical Storm to major Category 3 in less than 24 hours…

…Maximum sustained winds 125 mph…

…Beginning to pound the Leeward Islands…

In nearly ideal conditions for strengthening, Maria has undergone a staggering amount of intensification over the last 24 hours.  It is possible that the storm will approach Category 5 status during the next 36 hours.

On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the Leeward Islands late today and tonight, over the extreme northeasternern Caribbean Sea Tuesday and Tuesday night, and approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Wednesday.

 

Hurricane Irma

IMPORTANT:  I use this blog entry to document Hurricane Irma.  It is a place to store images, graphics and some forecast thoughts regarding this storm of national interest.  It is also viewed mostly by friends and family.  While forecast reasoning closely follows that of the experts at the National Hurricane Center, information here should NOT be used to make life or death decisions.  If you have stumbled upon this looking for information that is critical to you, I would advise you to only get your information straight from the National Hurricane Center – local National Weather Service office – and local media relaying information from your city, county and state officials.

Sunday, September 10, 2017 – 1 pm:

…Irma remains Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph and a central pressure of 933 mb…

…Moving north directly toward Marco and Naples, Florida…

Sunday, September 10, 2017 – 6 am:

…Northern eyewall of powerful Irma beginning to overspread the Florida Keys…

…Center of storm is 18 miles south of Cudjoe Key, or 24 miles east southeast of Key West…

…Key West radar measuring what appears to be reliable 146-153 knot winds about 1000 ft off the ground in northern eyewall…

…Maximum sustained winds 130 mph and minimum central pressure is 929 mb…

…Irma is a very dangerous Category 4 storm…

…Measured wind gusts to 94 mph in Key West…

…Most serious short-term impacts to be felt in Big Coppitt Key, Cudjoe Key, Summerland Key, Big Pine Key.  Catastrophic damage due to wind and storm surge is likely in these areas…

…Storm has moved to the north northwest at 10 mph over the last couple of hours…

After passing north of the Florida Keys, Irma will move north northwest before making landfall near or just south of Tampa as a major hurricane.  Life-threatening wind and storm surge is expected across the west-central and southwest coast of Florida.  Some weakening is expected / due to increasing vertical shear / as the storm tracks along the northwest coast of Florida on Monday.

Sunday, September 10, 2017 – 1:20 am:

The hope that Irma could remain below Category 4 strength was short-lived.  Irma has strengthened to Cat 4 with sustained winds of 130 mph.

Movement has now become steady to the northwest at about 7 mph.  The storm is currently located 55 nautical miles south southeast of Key West, Florida.

Sunday, September 10, 2017 – 12 am:

…Hurricane Irma is located about 73 miles south southeast of Key West, Florida and moving to the northwest at about 7 mph…

…Latest wind gusts include 69 mph at Dry Tortugas, 62 mph at Fowey Rocks, and 56 mph at Key West…

…Winds earlier gusted to 68 mph at Key West…

…Irma remains a major, Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and a minimum central pressure of 931 mb…

As of Midnight, there is little indication that the hurricane is strengthening.  Given a track across very warm ocean water, it is possible that Irma could strengthen back to Category 4 strength.   However, shear across the storm is increasing and this will be a mitigating factor.  The current forecast keeps Irma just below Category 4 strength through final landfall, but the storm will still be a very dangerous hurricane with extreme wind damage and storm surge near and either side of the core.

Wind damage, flooding rainfall and tornadoes will be a threat across all of Florida through Monday morning.

Saturday, September 9, 2017 – 5 pm:

…Irma located about 95 nautical miles southeast of Key West…

…Movement is west northwest about 10 mph…

…A turn to the north northwest is expected this evening and overnight…

Hurricane Irma’s interaction with Cuba overnight and this morning resulted in the storm weakening some.  Maximum sustained winds are 125 mph (Category 3), the central minimum pressure is 933 mb, and the eye has been cloud-filled.  People should not focus on this weakening trend as the pressure has fallen 8 mb over the past few hours, the center is beginning to move across deeper water away from Cuba, and the presentation on satellite and radar is improving.  All indications are that Irma will likely regain Category 4 strength tonight, and be a catastrophic hurricane when it reaches the Florida keys tomorrow morning.

There has been little in the way of change to the forecast reasoning.  The powerful storm will move northward along the west coast of Florida through Monday morning.  Hurricane Warnings extend westward across the central Florida Panhandle, and on the east coast, northward to the Georgia border.

Tropical storm conditions have overspread the Keys and far south Florida.  Recent wind gusts include 66 mph at Marathon, 49 mph at Fowey Rocks, and 47 mph at Key West.

Tornado Warnings have recently included portions of Broward, Collier, and Monroe counties.

On a side note, a comparison was made to events which occurred in September of 2010.  In an eerie way, there were three storms in nearly similar positions as what has recently occurred.  The three were of similar size – and all were named with the same first letter from west to east.

Saturday, September 9, 2017 – Noon:

…Tornado Watch issued for south Florida and Florida keys…

…Several Tornado Warnings have already been issued…

…Conditions across far south Florida and the Keys beginning to deteriorate…

…Winds gusting to 68 mph being reported at Fowey Rocks lighthouse, 60 mph at Marathon, Florida…

During its brush with northern Cuba, Irma weakened some and has sustained winds of 125 mph and a central pressure of 941 mb.  Irma is located about 135 nautical miles southeast of Key West, Florida moving to the northwest at 15 mph.  Irma is now moving away from Cuba and intensification is expected to begin soon.

Saturday, September 9, 2017 – 9 am:

… Eye of Irma showing up on radar about 160 nautical miles southeast of Key West, Florida…

…Irma’s brush with Cuba has weakened the storm some overnight…

…Still Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph and a minimum central pressure of 937 mb…

…Outer bands have been overspreading the Keys and south Florida…

…Tornado threat increasing across south Florida…

…Winds are gusting to 43 mph in Marathon and 41 mph in Homestead, Florida…

…Preparations to protect life and property should be completed in south Florida and rushed to completion in central and northern sections of the state…

The forecast track has remained relatively unchanged overnight.  Irma is expected to cross the Florida Keys by late tonight and early Sunday, and move up the west coast of Florida during the day tomorrow.  Irma could strengthen some while crossing the warm waters of the Florida Straits – even if it doesn’t – the storm will still be a major hurricane at landfall with the potential to produce life-threatening wind and storm surge.

Even with Irma weakening after landfall, damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and a risk of tornadoes will spread north across the entire state of Florida on Sunday and Monday.

Those living in the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia should keep up to date on information concerning Irma.

 

Friday, September 8, 2017 – 11 pm:

…Irma regains Category 5 strength…

…Forecast track shifts slightly westward again…

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 160 mph and the minimum central pressure is 924 mb.  Irma is located about 300 miles south southeast of Miami, Florida, moving to the west at 13 mph.  Forecast guidance continues to turn the storm to the northwest and then north northwest by Saturday evening, reaching the Florida Keys by Sunday morning.  Irma is expected to track northward – very close to the western coast of Florida – during the day Sunday.  Should much of the eye be able to remain over water, the storm will be able to maintain intensity longer, possibly extending the danger of extreme wind and deadly storm surge to the Tampa area.

Irma is a wide storm and even a track along the west coast will not keep hurricane conditions from occurring along the east coast.  Damaging winds, flooding and the risk of tornadoes will likely overspread at least the southern two-thirds of the state.

Friday, September 8, 2017 – 6 pm:

…Irma remains dangerous Category 4 hurricane this evening…

…Maximum sustained winds are 155 mph and the minimum central pressure is 925 mb…

…Forecast track of Irma nudged west by the National Hurricane Center, opening up more of the Florida Keys and southwest Florida coast to extreme danger…

…Preparations to protect property should be rushed to completion…

…Time for evacuation is running out this evening as tropical storm conditions are expected to begin arriving across the Keys and far south Florida by tomorrow morning…

The official track forecast now takes Irma over the central portions of the Florida Keys with an eventual final landfall south of Naples, Florida.  This track would result in catestrophic damage across the Keys and south Florida with life-threatening storm surge flooding across much of south and particularly southwest Florida.  People that have yet to evacuate these areas are urged to do so in these final hours before evacuation will become impossible.

Also… it is important not to focus on the exact forecast track.  There will likely be some error in the forecast and anyone under a Hurricane or Storm Surge Warning should treat the situation as if the track will be directly over them.

As Irma continues northward across Florida on Sunday, expect damaging winds that may approach 100 mph to extend to the central sections of the state.  Those not along the immediate coast will still have the potential of receiving considerable wind damage, flooding and a risk of tornadoes.

Friday, September 8, 2017 – 9 am:

…Hurricane Irma slightly weaker but remains catestrophic Category 4 storm…

…Maximum sustained winds are 150 mph and the minimum central pressure is 927 mb…

People should not focus on the slight weakening that has taken place over the last 24 hours.  The hurricane is still a large and powerful storm capable of producing extreme risk to life and property.  Irma is threading the needle between the Bahamas and Cuba and is expected to remain over unseasonably warm ocean waters, and in an environment favorable for maintenance or intensification.

Irma is expected to be crossing over the Upper Florida Keys and south Florida during the early morning hours of Sunday.  As we are now within 72 hours of landfall, the forecast cone is narrowing, and confidence is increasing with regard to the threat to south Florida.

Warning has been more than adequate, and has had as long of lead time as can be expected given the current forecast science.  Preparations to protect property should be wrapped up soon.  People that live in the Hurricane Warning still have time to act, and should follow the advice of recommended and mandated evacuation orders.  Irma will be a life-threatening storm at landfall.

The current forecast track takes the storm / which will be weakening after landfall / northward through the middle of Florida.  Despite the post-landfall weakening, residents living as far north as the Georgia border can expect the potential for damaging winds, as well as the associated flooding and tornado threats.

The forecast cone at 96 hours continues to cover a region from the Florida Panhandle to South Carolina.  Folks in these areas should stay up to date on the progress of Irma.

Thursday, September 7, 2017 – 11 pm:

…Irma weakens slightly during the day but remains dangerous Category 5 storm…

…Currently pounding Turks and Caicos Islands, will be moving into the southeast Bahamas tonight…

…Hurricane core expected to move between the Bahamas and Cuba over the next couple of days…

…People living from the Florida Panhandle to North Carolina should stay up to date on forecasts regarding Irma…

…Those in Hurricane Warning areas should act now to protect life and property, and follow any recommended or mandated evacuation orders…

Maximum sustained winds have lessened slightly to 165 mph and the minimum central pressure is 920 mb.  This still makes Irma a solid Category 5 storm.  Some fluctuations in strength are possible over the next 24 to 48 hours, but Irma will remain at Category 4 or 5 through that period.

The current forecast calls for Irma to slow slightly and begin to turn toward northwest toward southern Florida by Saturday evening.

Warnings have been raised for portions of Florida:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita

Beach

* Florida Keys

 

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

* North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet

* North of Bonita Beach to Venice

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita

Beach

* Florida Keys

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida Bay

* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le

Mole St. Nicholas

* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and

Villa Clara

* Central Bahamas

* Northwestern Bahamas

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

* North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet

* North of Bonita Beach to Anna Maria Island

* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

Thursday, September 7, 2017 – 7 am:

 

…Irma weakens ever so slightly overnight – still powerful, Category 5 storm…

…Maximum sustained winds are 180 mph and the minimum central pressure is 921 mb…

…Storm surge of 15 to 20 feet expected across the central and southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands…

…Hurricane watches or warnings likely for parts of Florida later today…

The latest model guidance and the official forecast moves Irma west northwestward to just southeast of the Florida coast in about 72 hours.  A northward turn is expected at that time and the storm is forecast to move north along, or just east of the Florida coast before making a final landfall near or east of the Georgia/South Carolina border.  While slow and steady weakening is forecast, Irma should remain a major hurricane (Category 3 or greater) until landfall.

It appears at this time that the threat of a direct hit by Irma to the Florida Panhandle and west coast of Florida is lessening.  However, people are reminded that forecasts greater than 72 hours often have large errors in both track position and intensity.  Everyone from the Florida Panhandle to North Carolina should continue to remain up to date on the latest information concerning Irma and be prepared to act if watches or warnings are issued.

 

Wednesday, September 6, 2017 – 11 pm:

… Little change in Irma today – remains Category 5 storm with winds of 185 mph and minimum central pressure of 916 mb …

…Irma has set a record for the longest lived Category 5 storm…

…Hurricane watches and warnings will be required for Florida on Thursday…

…Those living in hurricane-prone areas are urged to review plans and ACT when advisories are issued…

Irma is now moving away from Puerto Rico.  The storm is located 85 miles north northwest of San Juan and moving to the west northwest at 16 mph.

The forecast track takes Irma across the southern Bahamas through Friday evening, and approaching southeast Florida by Saturday evening.  The current forecast moves the hurricane north along the east coast of Florida, Sunday and early Monday, before an eventual final landfall near the Georgia/South Carolina border.  Forecasters will remind people that errors in the forecast track and intensity can be large at greater than 72 hours.  Anyone living from the Florida Panhandle to North Carolina should stay up to date on information concerning Hurricane Irma.

Wednesday, September 6, 2017 – 6 am:

…Irma remains extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 185 mph and central minimum pressure of 914 mb…

…Barbuda, Saint-Martin, Anguilla being hit hard by storm…

…Slight changes in official forecast track and strength…

Hurricane Irma pounded Barbuda this morning.  A surface observing station on the island saw winds gust to 155 mph during eyewall passage where the pressure dropped to almost 920 mb.  The anemometer stopped working at some point and was not reporting during the passage of the backside of the eye.

Hurricane Warnings have been extended into the southeast Bahamas.

Irma has likely peaked in strength.  The bad news is that the storm will stay at or above the threshold of a category 5 storm for about 72 more hours.

The forecast track has shifted slightly northeast, keeping it just off the coast of Cuba as it moves by on Saturday.  During the early morning hours of Sunday, Irma should be located about midway between the southern tip of Florida and Cuba and beginning its anticipitated turn toward the north.  While it is still likely to be a major storm (category 3 or higher), winds are forecast to reduce some due to slowly increasing vertical shear.

Watches and warnings could be required for portions of Florida later today.  Residents in hurricane-prone areas are advised to review plans and act when advisories are issued.  Historically, large errors occur in forecast tracks and intensities at time periods longer than 72 hours.  With this in mind, anyone living from the Florida Panhandle to North Carolina should stay up to date on the progress of Irma.

 

Tuesday, September 5, 2017 – 5 pm:

… Irma extremely dangerous Category 5 with sustained winds of 185 mph and central minimum pressure of 926 mb …

… Only Hurricane Allen (190 mph) in 1980 was a stronger storm in the Atlantic basin …

… Catestrophic damage expected across the far northern Leeward Islands through Wednesday afternoon …

Model guidance is tightly clustered through 120 hours and suggests that a major hurricane will be located just south of the southern tip of Florida by that time (Sunday afternoon).  Most guidance / and the official forecast / brings the center of Irma very close to or over portions of northern Cuba late Friday and early Saturday.  Should this occur, this will have a significant impact on the structure and intensity of the storm.  Leaning toward this solution, the hope is that Irma will be down to at least category 3 by the time a Florida landfall occurs.  Category 3 storms are still capable of producing significant damage and threat to life.  Anything greater would increase those risks.

It is important to remember that at this range (96-120 hours) – large errors in forecast positions and strength are common.  Anyone living from the Florida Panhandle to North Carolina should keep up to date on information concerning Irma.

Expect watches and warnings for portions of the Florida Peninsula during the next 24 to 48 hours.  All people living in the Florida Keys and southeast Florida should have a plan in place and be prepared to act once various advisories are initiated.

Tuesday, September 5, 2017 – 7 am:

… Morning finds Irma much stronger …

… Now extremely dangerous and rare Category 5 with sustained winds of 175 mph …

… One of the strongest storms recorded in the Atlantic basin …

The minimum central pressure has fallen overnight to 929 mb.  There has been very little change in the forecast track by model guidance, and the official forecast has followed suit.

The dangerous core of Irma will move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.

Confidence continues to increase that this major hurricane will be near the southern tip of Florida this weekend.  All people in hurricane-prone areas of the Florida Keys and south Florida are urged to review their plans of action, and be prepared to act if watches or warnings are issued over the next 48 hours.

Monday, September 4, 2017 – 4 pm:

… Hurricane Irma now dangerous Category 4 storm …

Hurricane Irma has intensified throughout the day and now has sustained winds of 130 mph.  The minimum central pressure is 944 mb.  Currently located about 490 miles east of the Leeward Islands, the storm is moving west at 13 mph.

First in line for the potential of significant damage from this storm include: Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten, Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for: Guadeloupe, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

Model guidance has been clustered nicely over the last 24-48 hours.  There is an increasing chance of seeing impacts from Irma in the Florida Peninsula later this week and this weekend.  Everyone in hurricane-prone areas should have their hurricane plans in place and stay up to date on information concerning this storm.

Hurricane Harvey

Saturday, August 26, 2017 / 5 am:

…Harvey maintains well defined eye 40 miles inland…

…Maximum sustained winds near 100 mph…

…Main threats gradually switching to inland flooding and tornadoes…

Extensive damage is being reported from some of the smaller cities (Rockport, Port Aransas, Lamar, Fulton) that took direct hits by the eyewall of Harvey.   Texas Power reports 211,000 without electricity.

Friday, August 25, 2017 / 11pm:

…Harvey still dangerous Category 4 hurricane…

…Long duration and catastrophic inland flooding event begins…

…30 to 50 inches of rainfall expected to occur in some areas…

Harvey is now centered just northeast of Rockport, Texas.  Movement has slowed and the storm is moving northwest at around 5 mph.  Surface observing sites have recorded a pressure as low as 945 mb and wind gusts over 130 mph.

Model data this evening maintains previous signal that Harvey will move very little over the next 72-96 hours.   Should that occur, an unprecidented amount of rain is likely to fall over a large area.  Resulting flooding will have a high impact on lives and property.

Friday, August 25, 2017 / 6 pm:

…Harvey becomes dangerous Category 4 hurricane…

…Nearing landfall, currently 25 miles east southeast of Port Aransas…

…Tornado threat ramping up between Port Aransas and Houston…

…Rare, Extreme Wind Warning in effect…

…Catastrophic flooding over the next several days will become main story – rain totals could approach 40 inches…

The National Weather Service in Corpus Christi has issued a

 

* Extreme Wind Warning for…

Southwestern Calhoun County in south Texas…

Aransas County in south central Texas…

East central Nueces County in south central Texas…

Eastern San Patricio County in south central Texas…

Central Refugio County in south central Texas…

 

* Until 700 PM CDT

 

* At 454 PM CDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated

extreme winds, associated with the eyewall of Hurricane Harvey,

were moving onshore 17 miles east of Key Allegro, or 18 miles east

of Rockport, moving northwest at 25 mph. This is an extremely

dangerous and life-threatening situation!

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

 

Widespread destructive winds of 115 to 145 mph will spread across

Calhoun County, Aransas County, Nueces County, San Patricio

County, Refugio County, producing swaths of tornado-like damage.

 

TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado

was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your

shelter. Take action now to protect your life!

Friday, August 25, 2017 / 2 pm:

The center of Harvey is located 79 miles east southeast of the Corpus Christi radar site.  Maximum sustained winds remain at 110 mph.  Some further strengthening is still possible before landfall.

Friday, August 25, 2017 / 9 am:

Dramatic views of Harvey now located 127 miles southeast of the Corpus Christi radar site.

The minimum central pressure has fallen to 948 mb and winds have increased to 110 mph, on the threshold of becoming a Category 3 storm.

Outer bands are now arriving along parts of the Texas coast.  All preparations should be completed.

Friday, August 25, 2017 / 4 am:

…Harvey strengthens to Category 2 storm…

After spending most of last evening with no change in strength, Harvey has undergone steady strengthening this morning.  The eye of Harvey is well defined and located about 125 miles due east of the Brownsville, Texas radar site -

Harvey is moving toward the northwest at 10 mph and has sustained winds of 105 mph.  The minimum central pressure has fallen to 967mb.  Further intensification is expected today, and winds may approach 120 mph (Category 3) over the next 12 hours.

Storm surge and flooding rainfall will be the most dangerous aspects of this storm.  As Harvey moves inland, the storm is expected to slow down, resulting in a prolonged excessive rainfall event.

Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over

the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During

the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain

accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas

Hill Country eastward through central and southwest Louisiana, with

accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas

and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey will cause

devastating and life-threatening flooding.

Warning summary this morning:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

 

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* North of Sargent to High Island Texas

* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

Thursday, August 24, 2017 / 3 pm:

Hurricane Harvey has rapidly intensified over the past 18 hours, and a significant amount of further intensification is likely before the storm reaches the Texas coast.  Harvey is now expected to be a major, category 3 hurricane at landfall.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Port Mansfield to Matagorda Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* North of Matagorda to High Island Texas

* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

 

One minute GOES16 imagery:

Powerful storm system bringing unusual weather to Christmas day…

A very strong storm system will be moving northeastward from the Rockies toward the Northern Plains today.  In advance of this system, a very warm and moist air mass has moved northward across Oklahoma.  The Midnight temperature Christmas morning in Okarche was 56 degrees.  The temperature rose to 65 degrees by 6 am – and the dew point was also 65 degrees!  Strong south and southeast winds have been gusting to between 40 and 55 mph across the state.  These are conditions that one would expect to find in the middle of May!

The most significant impacts from this storm system are going to remain north of the state.  A deep cyclone will be tracking from western Nebraska to southeast North Dakota, bringing full scale blizzard conditions to the Dakotas.  As the warm and moist air moves northward, there will be a risk of severe thunderstorms over Kansas and Nebraska.

In Oklahoma, there will also be a low end risk of severe weather this afternoon.  A dryline will be moving rapidly eastward across  the state today.  A narrow line of thunderstorms is expected to form along this feature which will be approaching the Okarche area between 1 and 2 pm.  There will be sufficient moisture and low level shear to support a couple of instances of damaging winds with the storms.  In addition, any sustained area of rotation along the line would be capable of producing a brief tornado.  Even outside of the thunderstorm line, winds will be quite strong across the state today with gusts to 50 mph not uncommon.  As dry air moves into western Oklahoma behind the dryline, fire danger will increase to near extreme levels.

For the record…

Thunder has not been recorded in Okarche on Christmas day before.

The record high low temperature of 50 degrees would be set given the low so far this morning of 56 degrees.  However, temperatures by Midnight will have fallen into the 40′s which will keep that from occurring.

Also, the record high of 74 degrees is not likely to be reached as temperatures with extensive cloud cover will top out around 70 before precipitation arrives.

All in all, it’s going to be a Christmas to remember weatherwise.

Hurricane Matthew (5:30 am / Oct 7, 2016)

… Hurricane Matthew remains a strong category 3 storm …

… Worst weather likely to remain offshore …

In the U.S., a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts from Jupiter Inlet to South Santee River.

At 5:30 am, Matthew was located about 45 miles east of Titusville, Florida and moving to the north northwest at 13 mph.  There is the possibility that the storm will never make a U.S. landfall, thus keeping the worst of the weather offshore.  Maximum sustained winds are still near 120 mph, and the minimum pressure is 938 mb.  However, the greatest wind gusts observed overnight across the coastal areas of Florida have only reached between 70 and 80 mph.  A steady weakening is now forecast.

The forecast track of Matthew continues to be precariously close to shore through the next 36 hours, and the closest approach may be to South Carolina (not counting skirting Cape Canaveral at the current time) Saturday afternoon.  By that time, sustained winds are forecast to be less than 100 mph, reducing the chances of a devastating impact.

Hurricane Matthew (7:30 am / Oct 6, 2016)

… Dangerous Hurricane Matthew category 3 and strengthening …

… Preparations to protect life and property in Florida should be rushed to completion …

In the U.S. – A Hurricane Warning is in effect from north of Golden Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River South Carolina.

Hurricane Matthew is located about 215 miles southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida.  It is moving northwest at 12 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are 125 mph and the minimum pressure has fallen rapidly overnight to 940 mb.  Winds are just now responding to the falling pressure and further strengthening will occur today.  Matthew should be a powerful and dangerous category 4 hurricane when it begins to impact Florida.

The eye will begin to approach West Palm Beach around 2 am on Friday, but don’t focus solely on the eye as tropical storm force winds will begin to affect southeast Florida later this morning.  Between 2 am Friday and 2 am on Saturday, the eye will be moving northward along or near the Florida and southeast Georgia coast.  It appears that at least some part of the eye will be crossing over part of the Florida coast, especially near Cape Canaveral.  The path that Matthew is taking will expose a very large area of the coast / possibly several hundred miles / to hurricane conditions.

Hurricane Matthew (7 am / Oct 5, 2016)

… Hurricane Matthew remains strong category 3 storm …

Hurricane Warnings are in effect from Haiti northward across most of the Bahamas.  In the U.S., a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet and includes Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Sebastian Inlet to Fernandina Beach.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Chokoloskee to Golden Beach… Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward… and Florida Bay.

After interaction with land, Matthew has weakened slightly over the last 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are 115 mph and the minimum pressure is 964 mb.  Some strengthening is likely over the next 48 hours as the hurricane tracks across warm waters and through an environment of weak shear.

Reliable model guidance is now showing the track of Matthew will come very close to the coast of Florida.  Hurricane conditions may start impacting southeast Florida by early evening on Thursday, then spread northward through Friday as the storm tracks north northwest.

Beyond Saturday, model guidance has started coming up with some interesting scenarios concerning Matthew.  The hurricane may not make landfall in the Carolina’s as earlier expect.  It’s possible that steering currents do not kick the storm completely out into the Atlantic either.  Some solutions suggest that the storm will turn back to the southeast and south, and possibly make another run at the Bahamas and Florida next week.  It is still much too early to tell where Matthew will end up over the weekend and next week.

Significant impact storm / January 21-24, 2016 / 2016 #1 (Closed)

A deep upper low will be tracking across the southeastern part of the country over the next 72 hours, producing a variety of dangerous weather conditions.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible today (Thursday) and Friday from east Texas to western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.  The greatest risk of tornadoes extends from far southeast Texas to southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama and the western part of the Florida Panhandle.

An extended period of freezing rain from this evening to Saturday morning may result in crippling ice conditions from central North Carolina southwestward into South Carolina and northeast Georgia.

Heavy snow will be occurring from southern Kentucky to New Jersey.  The heaviest snowfall will begin Friday afternoon and continue through much of the weekend.  Areas around Washington DC will be under a Blizzard Watch from Friday evening to Sunday morning where snowfall over over a foot will be possible.  Mountain areas of western Virginia and eastern West Virginia are likely to see over two feet of snow.

UPDATED 1:12 PM CST JAN 21:

Severe thunderstorms developed this morning over east Texas.  One storm capable of producing a tornado and golfball size hail has crossed into Louisiana just north of Bancroft.

UPDATED 4:10 PM CST JAN 21:

Tornado Warnings in red.

Tornado Warnings in red.

Strongly rotating storm approaching Gatesville, Mississippi.

Strongly rotating storm approaching Gatesville, Mississippi.

There has been a big increase in the number of rotating storms over central and southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana.  Many Tornado Warnings are in effect.

UPDATED 8:00 AM CST JAN 22:

The winter related impacts are starting to kick in this morning.  Heavy snow is currently falling across Kentucky, West Virginia and Virginia.  Forecast snow amounts have increased and now nearly two feet of snow is forecast for Washington DC.  Blizzard warnings have been expanded and now cover parts of southeast New York, New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northern Delaware, northern Virginia, Maryland and Washington DC.

UPDATED 2:37 PM CST JAN 22:

Freezing rain is falling across northern Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.  Moderate to heavy snow is occurring from northern Tennessee and central Kentucky to the Washington DC area.  As the event continues to ramp up, there are areas that are likely seeing 2+ inches per hour snowfall rates.  The highest storm totals will be between two and three feet by the end of the weekend.

UPDATED 10:00 PM CST JAN 22:

The Blizzard Warning has been extended a little farther north across southeast Pennsylvania.  Very heavy snow is falling in and around Washington DC, and this snow extends north across New Jersey and Pennsylvania.  The heaviest snow has been coming to an end across Tennessee and Kentucky.

UPDATED 8:44 AM CST JAN 23:

The surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast has deepened rapidly overnight.  Blizzard conditions extend from southern New York to Washington DC.  As expected, there have been some very impressive snowfall rates and accumulations.  Some places have been seeing rates of over three inches per hour.  The highest snowfall totals have now likely exceeded two feet in some areas.  As of 7 am, here are some CoCoRaHS observations from the state of Maryland:

UPDATED 2:43 AM CST JAN 24:

Snow is winding down across eastern New Jersey and Connecticut.  There should only be a couple more hours before all precipitation has moved offshore.  Snowfall totals are coming in and forecast amounts of 24 to 36 inches look pretty spot on.  There are more than a few jaw dropping amounts approaching 40 inches.

Storm total snowfall for Central Park, New York was 26.8 inches.  This was just 0.1 of an inch short of the all time record set February 11-12, 2006.

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT PHILADELPHIA...

A TOTAL OF 19.4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT THE PHILADELPHIA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON SATURDAY, ESTABLISHING A NEW RECORD FOR THE
DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL FOR JANUARY 23 WAS
11.9 INCHES SET IN 1935.

IT WAS THE 5TH GREATEST CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL AT PHILADELPHIA WITH
THE TOP SPOT BEING HELD BY THE 27.6 INCHES OF SNOW THAT FELL ON
JANUARY 7, 1996.

THE TWO-DAY TOTAL FOR THIS STORM WAS 22.4 INCHES AT PHILADELPHIA
WHICH IS EXACTLY EQUAL TO THE CITY`S NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR THE ENTIRE
SEASON.

THE TWO-DAY STORM TOTAL WAS THE 4TH GREATEST ON RECORD FOR
PHILADELPHIA DATING BACK TO THE 1870S. THE GREATEST TWO-DAY TOTAL
ON RECORD WAS 30.7 INCHES IN JANUARY 7-8, 1996.
...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT ALLENTOWN...

A TOTAL OF 30.2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT THE LEHIGH VALLEY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON SATURDAY, ESTABLISHING A NEW RECORD FOR THE
DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL FOR JANUARY 23 WAS
7.7 INCHES SET IN 1966.

IT WAS THE GREATEST CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL AT ALLENTOWN, REPLACING
THE 24.0 INCHES THAT FELL ON FEBRUARY 11, 1983.

THE TWO-DAY TOTAL FOR THIS STORM WAS 31.9 INCHES AT ALLENTOWN WHICH
IS A NEW RECORD, AS WELL. THE PREVIOUS RECORD TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL
WAS 25.6 INCHES SET ON JANUARY 7 AND 8, 1996.

ALLENTOWN`S NORMAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL OF 32.9 INCHES WAS ALMOST
EXCEEDED BY THIS ONE STORM.

OFFICIAL WEATHER RECORDS FOR ALLENTOWN DATE BACK TO 1922.

ALSO, THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TOTAL AT THE LEHIGH VALLEY
INTERNATIONAL WAS 1.65 INCHES ON SATURDAY, ESTABLISHING A RECORD FOR
THE DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR JANUARY
23 WAS 1.39 INCHES SET IN 1983.

OTHER RECORDS FOR THE EVENT (1/23/16 UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED:

555

A couple images from my friend, Mike who lives in Washington DC: