Some true summer weather is on tap for the area through the weekend. The high temperature today (20th) in Okarche will exceed 100 degrees, and 100 degree temperatures will likely be reached each day through Sunday (23rd).
An upper high center over the state will begin to shift eastward and weaken by the weekend. Eyes are on a strong upper wave over the Pacific Northwest that will move across the far northern Rockies, then dive southeastward toward the Midwest and Ohio Valley by Monday. As this occurs, a weak cold front will begin to move into the state. This will provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm development from late Sunday through early Tuesday. It will also help drop temperatures back closer to seasonal values.
The chance will be short-lived and hot weather will return to the area for the remainder of the coming week.
Okarche, Oklahoma averages for July 4:
High: 93.7 - Forecast: 90
Low: 69.8 – Forecast: 68
Rain has fallen on 6 of the last 35 July 4th’s – making rain chances around 17% based on climatology. This year, there is a 60 percent chance of storms during the morning hours, decreasing to 20 percent during the afternoon and evening. If the morning complex of storms is strong enough, we could end up with a very mild holiday with the high staying in the 80′s. The record for the date is 108 degrees which was reached in 1996.
A very strong storm system will be moving northeastward from the Rockies toward the Northern Plains today. In advance of this system, a very warm and moist air mass has moved northward across Oklahoma. The Midnight temperature Christmas morning in Okarche was 56 degrees. The temperature rose to 65 degrees by 6 am – and the dew point was also 65 degrees! Strong south and southeast winds have been gusting to between 40 and 55 mph across the state. These are conditions that one would expect to find in the middle of May!
The most significant impacts from this storm system are going to remain north of the state. A deep cyclone will be tracking from western Nebraska to southeast North Dakota, bringing full scale blizzard conditions to the Dakotas. As the warm and moist air moves northward, there will be a risk of severe thunderstorms over Kansas and Nebraska.
In Oklahoma, there will also be a low end risk of severe weather this afternoon. A dryline will be moving rapidly eastward across the state today. A narrow line of thunderstorms is expected to form along this feature which will be approaching the Okarche area between 1 and 2 pm. There will be sufficient moisture and low level shear to support a couple of instances of damaging winds with the storms. In addition, any sustained area of rotation along the line would be capable of producing a brief tornado. Even outside of the thunderstorm line, winds will be quite strong across the state today with gusts to 50 mph not uncommon. As dry air moves into western Oklahoma behind the dryline, fire danger will increase to near extreme levels.
For the record…
Thunder has not been recorded in Okarche on Christmas day before.
The record high low temperature of 50 degrees would be set given the low so far this morning of 56 degrees. However, temperatures by Midnight will have fallen into the 40′s which will keep that from occurring.
Also, the record high of 74 degrees is not likely to be reached as temperatures with extensive cloud cover will top out around 70 before precipitation arrives.
All in all, it’s going to be a Christmas to remember weatherwise.
The average first freeze in Okarche is October 31st. Last year, the first freeze was three weeks late – coming on November 21st. We’re not going to miss that by much this year.
A strong cold front will sweep across the state on Friday. The air behind this front is a little colder than previously expected and a hard freeze now appears likely by Saturday morning across the northwest 2/3′s of the state. While not as cold as Saturday morning, freezing temperatures are also expected Sunday morning. In Okarche, a low between 26 and 28 degrees is forecast both mornings.
Leading up to this freeze, temperatures will remain above to well above average. The weather should be nice – but breezy – for freeze preparations.
The average high temperature in Okarche on July 4th is 93.7 degrees. The coolest high temperature was 78 degrees in 1972, the warmest was 108 degrees in 1996.
The average low temperature is 69.8 degrees. The coolest low temperature was 57 degrees in 1968, the warmest was 78 degrees in 1969, 1980, and 1996.
Precipitation has fallen on about 18 percent of the years. The most was 2.41 inches in 2005.
Thunder was observed on 6 out of the last 11 years.
The current forecast calls for sunny skies and a high around 90.
An upper low over the Southern Rockies will be moving slowly northeastward this weekend, while abundant moisture moves northward across the Southern and Central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to increase across western Oklahoma later today (Saturday) and gradually spread eastward through Monday. Model precipitation forecasts have varied, but are in general consensus that a lot of rain will be falling across the state. Some data suggests that 6 to 8 inches could fall in isolated areas. Flood watches are already in effect and more will likely be needed – as well as flood and flash flood warnings before Monday.
After several weeks of above average temperatures, a strong cold front will be moving across Oklahoma on Friday when afternoon temperatures won’t get out of the 40′s. It is looking likely now that freezing temperatures will occur in Okarche on both Saturday and Sunday mornings. It is quite possible that a hard freeze could occur. Almost everything in our garden has decided it is spring. While precautions will be taken where possible, only time will tell how much of a bite this will have on things. This seems unusual given the near record amount of warm weather we have been getting, but the average date of last freeze in Okarche is April 6, and our record latest freeze is May 3.
3:01 pm CST Wednesday March 2 2016
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a strong short wave trough moving southeast from the Central Rockies. Despite limited moisture, there have been a few showers and thunderstorms form near the Kansas/Colorado border. All higher resolution model guidance suggest that at least scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move southeast through the evening, expanding in areal coverage and intensity while passing central Oklahoma. Total accumulations are not expected to be very high – generally 1/10 of an inch or less – but upward of 1/4 of an inch will be possible as the activity reaches slightly higher moisture over southeast Oklahoma. In addition, instability will be slightly higher over southeast Oklahoma and some small hail may also be produced. The storms will be exiting the state just after Midnight.
Temperatures over the next few days will be generally mild. The coldest day will be Saturday when we should wake up to temperatures in the 20′s and struggle to get to 50 degrees. After that, a big warm up is in store for the state. Model data has been consistent in taking temperatures into the 70′s / and some cases 80′s / for Oklahoma this upcoming week. It looks as if Okarche could string together about five days straight with temperatures in the 70′s, which would be 15 to 20 degrees above our average high.
The air mass over the eastern portion of the U.S. is quite cold this morning. Temperatures in the teens have made it into portions of Alabama and Mississippi. It is below freezing along the northern shores of Lake Pontchartrain and in Mobile, Alabama. Temperatures in the 20′s have found their way into northern Florida. The western edge of this arctic air mass is located over Oklahoma, and despite south winds, temperatures have fallen into the teens and 20′s over much of central and eastern sections of the state. The low so far in Okarche has been 25 degrees, and this could go lower by sunrise.
This afternoon, surface high pressure will be moving away from the state, and low pressure will be developing over central and eastern Kansas. This is going to result in increased warm and dry winds from the southwest, and a dramatic warm up. The forecast high temperature for today is 76 degrees. It could go higher. The record high temperature for today is 78 degrees which could very well be reached.
Should the temperature reach 76 degrees, the diurnal range would be 51 degrees. This would tie for the 4th biggest recorded diurnal range. This assumes that we don’t drop any further this morning before the warm up starts. There will likely be 80 degree temperatures in Oklahoma this afternoon. Should 80 degrees be reached in Okarche, the diurnal range of 55 degrees would tie for the biggest range on record. 55 degrees was seen on December 14, 2008 when the high temperature reached 68 degrees and the low was 13 degrees.
With the warm temperatures will come dry air, gusty winds and increased fire danger. In some cases, the danger will reach critical levels. The most likely area to see out of control wildfire spread today will be over central and southwest Oklahoma where a Red Flag Warning has been issued. This includes the Oklahoma City metro area.