Category Archives: Upcoming Weather Event

Thanksgiving weather

The low temperature this morning in Okarche was 32 degrees… one degree lower than the average for Thanksgiving.

The forecast high today is 70 degrees… well above the 57 degree average for the holiday.

Precipitation has only fallen on 7 of the last 36 Thanksgiving days.  Sunny skies are expected today as we continue to roll through a period of short-term drought.

…First freeze on the way…

The high temperature in Okarche on Wednesday the 25th was 78 degrees.  So far this Thursday, we have reached 76 degrees.   Don’t let it fool you, winter temperatures are on the way!

A strong cold front is moving across the Panhandle and far northwest Oklahoma early this afternoon.  Winds behind the front are gusting to between 40 and 50 mph and much cooler air will be filtering into the state tonight.  It appears that temperatures Friday morning will stay just above freezing in the Okarche area, but after a cold day Friday, the temperature is likely to fall into the 20′s by Saturday morning.  This should effectively put an end to the growing season.

The first freeze will be occurring on the 28th which is three days earlier than average.  Even though a freeze has only occurred on October 31st, one time since 1936, that remains the average date of first freeze in Okarche.

*** New data suggests that the temperature might be able to reach 32 degrees just before Midnight on Saturday, making the first freeze on the 27th ***

Temperatures will remain below seasonal average for the remainder of the month.

Hot Weather – Storm Chances

Some true summer weather is on tap for the area through the weekend.  The high temperature today (20th) in Okarche will exceed 100 degrees, and 100 degree temperatures will likely be reached each day through Sunday (23rd).

An upper high center over the state will begin to shift eastward and weaken by the weekend.  Eyes are on a strong upper wave over the Pacific Northwest that will move across the far northern Rockies, then dive southeastward toward the Midwest and Ohio Valley by Monday.  As this occurs, a weak cold front will begin to move into the state.   This will provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm development from late Sunday through early Tuesday.  It will also help drop temperatures back closer to seasonal values.

The chance will be short-lived and hot weather will return to the area for the remainder of the coming week.

4th of July Forecast

Okarche, Oklahoma averages for July 4:

High: 93.7  -  Forecast: 90

Low: 69.8 – Forecast: 68

Rain has fallen on 6 of the last 35 July 4th’s – making rain chances around 17% based on climatology.  This year, there is a 60 percent chance of storms during the morning hours, decreasing to 20 percent during the afternoon and evening.  If the morning complex of storms is strong enough, we could end up with a very mild holiday with the high staying in the 80′s.  The record for the date is 108 degrees which was reached in 1996.

Powerful storm system bringing unusual weather to Christmas day…

A very strong storm system will be moving northeastward from the Rockies toward the Northern Plains today.  In advance of this system, a very warm and moist air mass has moved northward across Oklahoma.  The Midnight temperature Christmas morning in Okarche was 56 degrees.  The temperature rose to 65 degrees by 6 am – and the dew point was also 65 degrees!  Strong south and southeast winds have been gusting to between 40 and 55 mph across the state.  These are conditions that one would expect to find in the middle of May!

The most significant impacts from this storm system are going to remain north of the state.  A deep cyclone will be tracking from western Nebraska to southeast North Dakota, bringing full scale blizzard conditions to the Dakotas.  As the warm and moist air moves northward, there will be a risk of severe thunderstorms over Kansas and Nebraska.

In Oklahoma, there will also be a low end risk of severe weather this afternoon.  A dryline will be moving rapidly eastward across  the state today.  A narrow line of thunderstorms is expected to form along this feature which will be approaching the Okarche area between 1 and 2 pm.  There will be sufficient moisture and low level shear to support a couple of instances of damaging winds with the storms.  In addition, any sustained area of rotation along the line would be capable of producing a brief tornado.  Even outside of the thunderstorm line, winds will be quite strong across the state today with gusts to 50 mph not uncommon.  As dry air moves into western Oklahoma behind the dryline, fire danger will increase to near extreme levels.

For the record…

Thunder has not been recorded in Okarche on Christmas day before.

The record high low temperature of 50 degrees would be set given the low so far this morning of 56 degrees.  However, temperatures by Midnight will have fallen into the 40′s which will keep that from occurring.

Also, the record high of 74 degrees is not likely to be reached as temperatures with extensive cloud cover will top out around 70 before precipitation arrives.

All in all, it’s going to be a Christmas to remember weatherwise.

First freeze likely upcoming weekend

The average first freeze in Okarche is October 31st.  Last year, the first freeze was three weeks late – coming on November 21st.  We’re not going to miss that by much this year.

A strong cold front will sweep across the state on Friday.  The air behind this front is a little colder than previously expected and a hard freeze now appears likely by Saturday morning across the northwest 2/3′s of the state.  While not as cold as Saturday morning, freezing temperatures are also expected Sunday morning.  In Okarche, a low between 26 and 28 degrees is forecast both mornings.

Leading up to this freeze, temperatures will remain above to well above average.  The weather should be nice – but breezy – for freeze preparations.

4th of July Weather in Okarche

The average high temperature in Okarche on July 4th is 93.7 degrees.  The coolest high temperature was 78 degrees in 1972, the warmest was 108 degrees in 1996.

The average low temperature is 69.8 degrees.  The coolest low temperature was 57 degrees in 1968, the warmest was 78 degrees in 1969, 1980, and 1996.

Precipitation has fallen on about 18 percent of the years.  The most was 2.41 inches in 2005.

Thunder was observed on 6 out of the last 11 years.

The current forecast calls for sunny skies and a high around 90.

Flooding rainfall expected next 48 to 72 hours

An upper low over the Southern Rockies will be moving slowly northeastward this weekend, while abundant moisture moves northward across the Southern and Central Plains.  Thunderstorms are expected to increase across western Oklahoma later today (Saturday) and gradually spread eastward through Monday.  Model precipitation forecasts have varied, but are in general consensus that a lot of rain will be falling across the state.  Some data suggests that 6 to 8 inches could fall in isolated areas.  Flood watches are already in effect and more will likely be needed – as well as flood and flash flood warnings before Monday.

*** Freeze coming ***

After several weeks of above average temperatures, a strong cold front will be moving across Oklahoma on Friday when afternoon temperatures won’t get out of the 40′s.  It is looking likely now that freezing temperatures will occur in Okarche on both Saturday and Sunday mornings.  It is quite possible that a hard freeze could occur.  Almost everything in our garden has decided it is spring.  While precautions will be taken where possible, only time will tell how much of a bite this will have on things.  This seems unusual given the near record amount of warm weather we have been getting, but the average date of last freeze in Okarche is April 6, and our record latest freeze is May 3.

Chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening

3:01 pm CST Wednesday March 2 2016

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a strong short wave trough moving southeast from the Central Rockies.  Despite limited moisture, there have been a few showers and thunderstorms form near the Kansas/Colorado border.  All higher resolution model guidance suggest that at least scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move southeast through the evening, expanding in areal coverage and intensity while passing central Oklahoma.  Total accumulations are not expected to be very high – generally 1/10 of an inch or less – but upward of 1/4 of an inch will be possible as the activity reaches slightly higher moisture over southeast Oklahoma.  In addition, instability will be slightly higher over southeast Oklahoma and some small hail may also be produced.  The storms will be exiting the state just after Midnight.