9:55 am /12th
Debris ball near Kingston, LA
9:30 am / 12th
It appears as if the strong cold front will be arriving in Okarche around 1 pm this afternoon. It may have some associated showers or storms with it and will be followed with strong north winds gusting to 50 mph and much colder temperatures.
A freeze warning has been issued for tomorrow morning (Monday). Preparations to protect tinder plants should be rushed to completion today. This task may be more difficult after the stronger winds arrive around 1 pm.
A tornado outbreak is unfolding over the Lower Mississippi Valley. One of the first signs of debris being lofted has been detected south of Scottsville, TX
The risk of strong or violent tornadoes will be highest later today over Mississippi and Alabama
8 am / 12th
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After a morning with a temperature in the 50’s, we jumped to 67 degrees while our dew point in Okarche dropped to 40.
The anticipated strong cold front has moved across the panhandle and temperatures there have dropped into the 30’s with north winds gusting to near 50 mph.
So… what happens now? We are seeing storm development extending northeast across Washita County and this may extend into parts of Blaine/Canadian counties. Storms should continue through most of the night with several waves developing and some isolated severe reports possible. There have been some hi-res model signals of heat bursts developing with this activity that will be something to watch for toward the morning hours on Sunday. Still a lot of other weather coming at us, but more on that in time.
2:00 am / 11th – The upper system analyzed over far southwest California will be will be swinging eastward across the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley during the next 48 hours. Before this is by on the 14th, we will have plenty to talk about. There will be severe weather – including a possible major outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes on Eastern Sunday over the Lower Mississippi Valley. We will have storms in Oklahoma…. a very strong front followed with some damaging winds. There may be some snow get introduced in the forecast, and we have multiple frosts/freezes coming.
Instead of hitting it all at once, we will start with Saturday in Oklahoma. This will be the last full warm day we have for a few days. As the upper system approaches, surface low pressure will deepen just northwest of the state. A surge of low level moisture will begin at daybreak on increasing south winds. By early afternoon, the atmosphere will become sufficiently unstable for scattered severe thunderstorms to spread north across the Red River. These may make it up to the I-40 corridor. Hail around or larger than quarter size and some gusty winds will be the primary threats with these storms. By later in the afternoon, more storms are likely to form near the western side of the higher low level moisture over western Oklahoma. There is a non-zero tornado threat with this activity that will move toward central Oklahoma by late in the afternoon.