Wednesday the 16th was a busy day at work wrapping up loose ends before vacation starts – which will be at 6 p.m. on the 18th. Today was warm and a little breezy and time was spent on a few things in the garden.

One thing that we will finally get to address is the possibility of severe weather on Saturday the 19th. Moisture return is not quite as robust as one would want, but it still appears that there will be a decent fetch of unstable air from western Iowa into northwest Texas. This just east of a surface front and dryline. One of the strongest mid level troughs we have seen in a few weeks will be overspreading the moist sector at midday. There should be widespread 35 to 45 knot flow associated with this feature. By 4 p.m., storms will begin forming along the front in Kansas and develop southwestward toward a surface low near the northeast corner of the Texas panhandle. By 6 p.m., storms will likely start forming southward along the dryline toward the southwest corner of the state. Models forecast sufficient turning to allow some of the storms to become supercells with large hail and damaging winds likely. There will be a brief window for a couple of tornadoes with the stronger, more sustained storms. The most likely area at this time appears to be near the Kansas/northwest Oklahoma border. There is also some supportive evidence that a complex of severe storms may evolve and spread southeastward toward central Oklahoma after dark. Damaging winds and some hail would be the main threats with this activity.

Monday, May 14th ended up being a nice day that was used for continued improvements in the back garden.  About the only major project left is to paint the weather instrument shelter which will be attacked during the next couple of days.

Meanwhile… the prospect for storms looks to be on the increase this coming weekend.  Saturday, May 19th is now starting to look like a chase day in the central Plains.  While moisture return might not be as robust as wanted… it looks like the atmosphere will become quite unstable at the same time mid level flow increases to over 40 knots.  We are still five days out… but being the first day of vacation / combined with one of the only decent shots at storms for many days / I will have to consider Saturday a possible chase day in Kansas.   Plenty of days to figure out the details……

Until now, it has been real easy to just throw down an easy forecast of, “No chasing/severe thunderstorms expected in the near future.”  Indeed, the first half to 2/3′s of May looks quite below average in the severe weather department.  However, it may be time to start paying a little more attention.  First, model guidance is strongly starting to suggest that next weekend (19th/20th) and possibly into the 21st – there will be increasing storm chances in the central and northern Plains.  After a bit of a break, it looks like things could start ramping up again from about the 24th on.  Maybe I will end up chasing in May afterall…..

Until then… mostly mild with a few showers and thunderstorms well to our west. 

I will be using this week to get caught up on things around the house in case we are headed toward a more active period and several days of travel/chasing.

A couple hours of early morning rain pushed the storm total up over 1/2 inch…. it was a much needed rain and the garden looks a lot better for it. 

Otherwise, mild conditions will persist with very little in the way of anything to get excited about on the chase front for the next several days.

Not a chase situation and won’t be for quite some time.  However, an upper level low is approaching the state and precipitation is increasing over southwest and south central Oklahoma.  While the operational NAM and GFS do not produce significant precipitation in central Oklahoma… several of the short range models squeeze out more than an inch by Saturday afternoon.  I am inclined to believe this as deepening moisture continues to spread northwestward.  Fingers crossed for a decent amount of rain for the first time this month.

A day dedicated to the garden with things wrapped up before a decent chance of rain over the next couple of days.

Moisture will dramatically increase across the state on Friday and Saturday in advance of an upper level low pressure area currently over southwest Texas.  This system is forecast to move to east central Oklahoma by Saturday afternoon.  The heaviest rain will be in south central and southeast Oklahoma… but latest model guidance suggests that there could be amounts between ½ and one inch over the central part of the state.  The least amounts should be across the far north.

Severe weather is not a big threat with this system… but any rainfall will be welcomed.

Mild to cool conditions will persist across the state through the weekend.  A weak cut off low will move out of the southwest U.S. into the southern Plains by Saturday resulting in an increase in showers and thunderstorms.  However, the main westerlies will hold steady near and north of the Canadian border.  Generally weak flow aloft and marginal instability will keep the chase chances low for the near future.  Something forming nearby this weekend may warrant a shot at lightning photography….will wait and see how that potential evolves.

A cool start to the morning and cool model runs forecast a continued lull in storm action over the next couple of weeks.  I know there are a lot of chasers in full blown chase mode right now, but the pickings are going to be slim.  This does work for me however, as my official vacation doesn’t start until 6 pm on the 18th.  Plus, I have several things to keep me busy until at least through the 22nd.  The timing would be almost perfect for things to start ramping back up during the last week of May and into June.

About as boring as it gets.  A cold front has moved through which will cool us down and limit storm chances for a few days.  Otherwise, just starting a string of work shifts that will lead me toward my vacation at the end of next week.  Hopefully, the weather pattern starts to look better then….

A dryline has worked eastward through western Oklahoma early this afternoon and is sitting near the Highway 81 corridor.  A cold front has been moving southeast through the northwest part of the state.  Temperatures in the panhandle are in the 60′s… with 80 and 90 degree temperatures across the remainder of the state.  The atmosphere east of the dryline is quite unstable.  Latest short range guidance suggest that storms will soon form in southwest Oklahoma and then in the Oklahoma City area.  Other storms will develop southwest out of Kansas into northwest and north central Oklahoma.  While it is hard to pin down the exact areas that will see storms… it does appear that there will be scattered activity across the eastern half of the state through the evening.  Given the degree of instability, these storms will quickly become severe.  Only weak to moderate flow aloft will prevent the storms from becoming too organized and only isolated severe reports are expected.  I am still on the fence with regard to chasing…. I will be waiting until I see first development before making a decision.